Comment Doing OK. (Score 2) 313
Current Situation:
- 1. 2.415 million active reported infected
- 2. 7% infected death rate globally
- 3. 6% infected death rate in U.S.
- 4. Very high case-fatality ratios in Europe (France, Spain, and Italy, 12-17% infected die) -- has to be a combination of older people getting sick, overwhelmed health system, public transit, late lockdown.
- 5. Daily infection rates are stable at around 3,500 per hour (globally)
- 6. Daily death rates are stable around 200 per hour (globally)
- 7. Daily recoveries is increasing linearly and is around 1,700 per hour (globally)
- 8. The U.S. has 5% of global population but 30%+ cases/deaths of global COVID-19.
I am glad to see that you're referencing Johns Hopkins, a reliable source of data on the subject. Lots of other comments are quoting unreliable or questionable sources.
My Assumptions:
- 1. This will be with us for at least a couple of years.
- 2. Vaccine will be a year or more away.
- 3. Most everyone will be exposed or contract the virus.
- 4. This will cull the elderly and also low wage workers.
- 4.1. -- Food supply is already an issue and will get worse.
- 5. Fabric of Society will decay.
- 5.1. -- More shootings and then home invasions as people run out of survival options.
- 5.2. -- Local efforts have gone a long way to preventing this, but it seems inevitable to me on some level.
- 1. I agree. We're going to be dogged by this for at least a couple of years. Assuming we continue to isolate for a while, issues will be reduced to local and scattered flare-ups.
- 2. I am hoping that we'll see the first round of vaccines by year's end although it may be longer. Even if we see the first vaccines in late 2020, it will take some time to distribute and some people will refuse, leading to limited benefit in the shorter term.
- 3. I do not plan to be exposed if I can help it. We don't know what the long term effects of this virus are. Although not yet peer reviewed, there is evidence that exposure does not provide increased immunity so herd immunity may not be an option. Furthermore, there is some evidence that exposure may actually increase your chances of re-contracting the disease. For reference, please see: https://www.biorxiv.org/conten....
- 4. Agreed. It will also cull a percentage of the less careful and those that are unwilling to take precautions. There will be some impact on our food supply but we're not going to be starving. You just may have to make some compromises, give up on having your steak or similar on occasion.
- 5. The virus will not cause society to collapse. Political forces may weaken society for their own benefit but the virus will not cause that to happen. A small percentage of people may resort to violence out of fear or out of desire, using the virus and political rhetoric as an excuse, but I believe those will be exceptions rather than the norm. I'm more concerned about violence around election time due to political polarization than violence due to fear over COVID-19.
My Situation:
- In net, I think we're better off now than we were before COVID-19, although cash flow is a bit of an issue.
- I'm self employed and have been for some time. I have been working from home for roughly 3 years so very little change there other than using Zoom to talk to my business partner rather than just meeting him face-to-face.
- Cash flow is a problem right now but I can weather the storm until at least the beginning of next year. I'm taking action right now to reduce my burn rate further.
- Both kids are home during the day which slows me down significantly. My wife, who is now out of work, is keeping them going on their school work. My kids teachers have also been great about working remotely, checking in with the kids via Zoom and responding to our queries/requests. In net, the kids are doing better with their school work now than they did before the lock-down.
- My wife's out of work and will be for some time. She's a massage therapist so I suspect she won't be working again for at least another year, possibly longer. This further hurts our cash flow but I note the reduced driving and other lifestyle changes have helped. She seems relatively happy as it's given her more time to do things she's wanted to do.
- Started a garden so we'll have fresh vegetables during the summer and fall. Better vegetables and no concern that they've been spat on or sneezed on in the market. Also have chickens for eggs which gives us protein.
- No "bug-out" location. Society will not collapse although there may be increased poverty.