Long Bets (Score 0)

Wired ran an article about public figures making bets about the future. It talks about how putting your money where your mouth increases accountability of people who discuss the future.

In that spirit, I offer 10 to 1 odds on 10,000 that by 2050, we will not have more than 1,000 people living on two planets other than earth. Someone else puts up $1000, I put up $10,000. If we have two planets colonised by the definition above, they win, if we don't, I win.

The first paragraph exposes the falacy of this article.

1. Earth's population will be forced to colonise two planets within 50 years
2. if natural resources continue to be exploited at the current rate, according to a report out this week.

Anyone with an elementary understanding of economics knows about scarcity. Rare, desireable resources increase in price. It is preposterous to expect that the price of oil will not go up, if we are going to run out of it in a year. Second, as resources are depleted, the industries that harvest them won't be able to produce as much per year, increasing the price again. Higher prices mean less consumption.

Environmentalists have been predicting imminent doom for over 50 years. The Skeptical Environmentalist