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Comment Re:Followed by: (Score 2) 116

As with any branch of science that uses statistics, no one can say that any specific event has a specific cause where multiple causes are possible. For instance, you can't tell whether a specific decay event in a lump of plutonium was caused by radioactive decay, or maybe a stray high energy cosmic ray. But what you can do is measure a large number of decay events and come up with the most probable explanation. This is true of all statistics, and it's why we have tools like statistics.

So if anyone points to a specific storm and says "That's AGW", they're not going to get much support even in the climatological community. But if someone states "The number of major floods and the intensity of those floods is increasing, and the most likely agent is AGW", well that's a statement of probability.

Comment Re:Followed by: (Score 2) 116

Because scientific theories are just totally about what part of the political spectrum you're from.

You do understand the universe doesn't give a flying fuck whether you're a liberal, a conservative, a libertarian, an anarchist or a socialist, right? It really doesn't. CO2 absorbs and re-emits solar radiation on the liberal and the libertarian equally.

Comment Re:Wait, what? (Score 1) 307

Of course we use an accounting system. But I've seen very few accounting systems at the lower and medium range price level that really have much in the way of decent forecasting tools. I have seen (though never used) high end accounting systems, often specialized to specific industries, that do these things, but I doubt my organization would want to pay $10,000+ with high annual support agreements just to get that functionality. What even low end accounting systems do offer is the ability to dump balance sheets, cash flow statements, income statements and the like to an Excel spreadsheet, and from their we can build forecasts.

Bookkeeping is only one part of financial management; a damned important part, but only part.

Comment Re:"Facebook is testing committing corporate suici (Score 2) 130

No, this is just another social study done by Facebook. They're one damn clever bunch!

Of course they know that everyone and their dog hates blaring ads. They're not stupid. But they want to know just how much bullshit their users will put up with. And it's easy to determine simply by looking at the amount of ad blocking going on in their user base. They can slowly crank the annoyance meter up and watch the ad blocking rise. That's marketing research you can take right to the bank!

Comment Re:Testing (Score 1) 130

No, I'm not likely going to click an ad so it can blare at me and show me shit I ain't interested in. That's exactly the problem with ads.

If you think the music industry is stuck in the buggy whip times, you haven't seen nothing yet before taking a look at the advertising industry. They are really stuck in the "push" technologies that newspapers and (more even) TV offered them: We put it there and they have to consume it 'cause they have no choice. We interrupt your program for our messages and they have to sit there and watch them.

And they STILL try the same shit on the internet, a medium that by its very definition is anything but "push". Not only is it bidirectional, offering the great opportunity of interactivity in advertising, it is also trivial for the ad target to ignore, circumvent or outright deny the ad. Of course the old "you get it whether you like it or not" approach is doomed to fail in such an environment.

They have to "earn" those eyeballs. I know, an outlandish concept to an industry used to having an audience they can abuse as they please since they cannot avoid it, but this audience found a way to avoid you, and they hate you like the plague. Ads are about as popular as athlete's foot or a hernia. Hell, we have people who can't be assed to clean their computer of trojans that make them close 20 windows at start up, who don't get bothered by their computer running like molasses 'cause a dozen viruses hook into every keystroke and they don't care that their browser window has the size of a postal stamp due to a hundred browser bars competing for the screen real estate, but you, advertisers, managed to get them to install an ad blocker!

Can you imagine just how much ads have to piss someone like THIS off to act on it?

Your ads, if you want to stay relevant, have to offer people something they WANT. Include a flash game, it needn't be anything sophisticated or new, just make it funny and entertaining. Make your product the powerup in a Mario clone or let people shoot aliens trying to steal it and collect it when they drop it. Hell, if you feel like it, add some stupid prize like a monthly drawing of a month's supply of whatever you're hawking, so people actually play your game and give you their mail address.

For fuck's sake, make your ads entertaining! Nobody wants to hear how clean your sheets get with Tide and how much we should Gain. We've heard that. To the point where we'd rather go back to our childhood to sit through a church sermon because even THAT is less repetitive!

Comment Re:Mobile Web (Score 1) 76

It wasn't just designers. Ad companies like Google were big culprits in subverting this vision. If your content is delivered in a structured form, then it's trivial for the receiver to just not display the bits that are adverts. On the other hand, if you get a big glob of executable code that produces some output then it's a lot harder to identify which bits are real content and which are cruft.

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