Comment Re:Flawed assumptions? (Score 2) 163
heh, the flawed assumptions are yours, I assure you. Dr. Vinge is considering technological sophistication from the stone age to present in his theory, not computational power or any other specific.
Consider that for perhaps millions of years we had fire and spears as our main tools. Then agriculture, then metallurgy, then language, communication etc. Each epoch is marked by revolutions in technological sophistication, and also, each epoch shift occurs more and more rapidly, in a logarithmic fashion. consider the advances of the last 100 years to see my point.
In fact, the last great technological revolution has been the global information network that we are currently using to discuss the topic. Born less than 30 years ago, it has already saturated the planet, becoming nearly ubiquitous to the segment of the population at the front of the wave.
Consider that for perhaps millions of years we had fire and spears as our main tools. Then agriculture, then metallurgy, then language, communication etc. Each epoch is marked by revolutions in technological sophistication, and also, each epoch shift occurs more and more rapidly, in a logarithmic fashion. consider the advances of the last 100 years to see my point.
In fact, the last great technological revolution has been the global information network that we are currently using to discuss the topic. Born less than 30 years ago, it has already saturated the planet, becoming nearly ubiquitous to the segment of the population at the front of the wave.
