Comment Re:lol no (Score 1) 195
The Midwest is at especially high risk due to the retirement of older plants
No, the midwest is at especially high risk because they've nimby'd renewables. They didn't close those older plants on a whim.
I'd kindly ask you to read page 45 of the NERC document referenced in the post. It shows generation contributions from variable sources (renewables). SPP and MISO in the Midwest have the 2nd and 3rd most renewable nameplate generation respectively. The problem is the 2nd and 3rd column in that table where the anticipated generator from those sources is a small percentage of the nameplate quantity. I live in Eastern Montana and work as an engineer at a power plant. There is a lot of wind generation in the area and the wind blows fairly regularly, but still, hot summer days not only cause the worst situation for generation both for thermal and renewable sources, but also for system load. Transmission capacity is based on cooling of substation transformers and high voltage power lines. Before our coal plant was retired in 2021 (very small plant, it was definitely it's time to be done), we'd often run into situations where generation pricing further east in the grid was favorable, but we'd be running at our minimum load due to transmission capacity. We now have peaking capacity on this site which helps stabilize line voltage in the area, but even units designed for quick turn around peaking to chase wind require frequent maintenance. It's a hard situation that I feel would best be served by added small modular nuclear units that could be placed strategically to supply power where the transmission system can best receive the power.