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Comment Re:Do the Japanese need a lesson in biology? (Score 1) 85

The number of times that my wife has had to submit a copy of her marriage certificate to confirm her original name even though we've been married for 11 years baffles me. It made some sense in the first year or two, but she still has to do it a couple of times a year for seemingly random things. I encouraged her to keep her original name when we were planning the wedding, but she insisted on the name change.

Comment Re:Predictions = planning ahead (Score 5, Interesting) 181

The more interesting research on this topic that I've read claimed smarter people make better decisions because they are better at deferring decisions. They are comfortable with the uncertainty because of their confidence in their abilities. There is always a tradeoff between making the decision later when you have more information and making it earlier so you have more time to plan your execution. If you need more time to plan execution, you need to make decisions earlier. And your decisions will suffer because of this.

Comment Re:From the No Shit Department. (Score 2) 181

I don't think this research qualifies as "no shit." I think it qualifies as very poorly done and potentially wrong. Or at least the summary makes it seem that way. They asked these individuals a prediction question that existing knowledge significantly helps with. Existing knowledge that many if not most well educated people will have and people with less education probably won't. I know what the average life expectancy is for someone in the US because I have read it. I know that your life expectancy is different when you are 40 because you have already avoided dying for 40 years, and I understand this in large part because of the math education I have had and because I've read actuarial tables before.

If you wanted to test predictive power that is based on innate intelligence instead of education, you need to ask for predictions that a well read adult wouldn't have a significant advantage in making.

Comment Re:Unproven if AI replaces jobs (Score 3, Insightful) 53

Not hiring 30 staff is not the same as firing 30 staff.

It is not exactly the same because of the personal disruption a firing has on someone, but they are pretty close. I have been laid off once, but it was in a strong job market so I found another position with a significant pay increase within a month. Being laid off right now if far worse because it isn't as easy to find an equivalent position.

When looking at the economy overall, not hiring 30 people is the same as firing 30 people. Both result in 30 less jobs in the market. Considering the US population from age 18-65 is growing very slowly right now, technologies that slow the growth of new jobs could be very beneficial. But a shrinking job market, whether from layoffs or a lack of hiring after employee attrition, would still cause some significant damage to peoples' lives.

Comment Re:You Proably would not notice for Petrol Pumps (Score 1) 162

You two must be using different terminology, because there is no chance you have gone 10 years without seeing a single gas pump at a gas station down for maintenance. Gas stations around me have about 8 - 16 pumps, and the average gas pump is down for maintenance 2-4 hours per week. That means about 20% of the time at least one pump is down for maintenance on average (not accounting for times when more than one pump is down at a time), which aligns with what I would have guessed if I hadn't googled it (I guessed 25%).

Comment Re:Despite (Score 1) 277

It depends on what they've purchased. Microsoft's basic licenses haven't gone up by that much in five years. The top tier E5 license was $57 per month in 2020, and today it's $54.75 (albeit without Teams, which costs $8 per month with a phone number attached). European prices are probably a bit different, but the price changes in percentages won't be notably different. Even add-ons like Entra Suite or Intune Suite won't add 72%. It's more likely that they have Azure VMs or other services, and that's where the majority of the cost increase came from. If they're not planning on bringing that on-prem, they'll see some savings, but it may not be all that much.

Comment Re:Fringe science [Re:Only China] (Score 2) 112

There is disagreement in the medical community for failing to distinguish the difference between and a low acute dose (less than 100 mSv but dosage accrued in a short time period, such as a single day), vs. a low gradual dose (e.g., less than 100 mSv but accrued over the course of a year)

The difference is that the bodies repair and disposal methods are thought to the be able to handle low-dose rates more comparable to high-level background radiation, than the unnatural effect of intense dosage rates that arise from nuclear accidents or bombs.

This is why the report you reference is not the high-quality support for the LNT model that you think it is. That report takes it's LNT data primarily from the low-level bomb data as 100 mSv - but 100 mSv for a single incident is nothing at all like a gradual dose of 100 mSv over the course of a year because the body for no chance to self-repair for that much radiation from a single incident.

The authors of that study frequently say that they don't have evidence that LNT is not the correct model. Not that they have strong evidence to prove that LNT is the correct model. I think the report is an honest assessment of the facts that they have.

I'm also not suggesting 100 mSv per year at a constant rate is perfectly safe - we don't have enough data to conclude that - for some reason the relevant double-blind studies never get done.

Others have suggested the acute doses less the 10 mSv are in fact safe or more accurately do not supply convincing evident that it is harmful. But public policy certainly does not support that view.

Comment Re:How about a new phone too (Score 1) 277

> Since it is Linux it could be android compatible and capable of running anything an android phone can run

"Could be" is pretty far from "will be," and even further from "is."

> android is 99.9% Linux

Android is based on Linux, and there's a lot of overlap, but it's not as close as you claim. If it were, it would be a lot easier to run Android apps on Linux. As it is, you have to jump through some hoops. Even using tools like Waydroid, you're having someone else jump through those hoops for you, and you're not getting native performance. Taking "Linux" to mean a distribution like Debian, the two environments differ substantially. Even the kernels have diverged in notable ways, though Google still uses the Linux kernel as the upstream source.

Ubuntu tried to make a mobile OS, but eventually dropped it. Pine64 has one, but it's more a hobbyist platform. Purism has PureOS, derived from Debian, but it's market is negligible. It's not easy.

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