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Comment ebikes are dangerous! (Score 1) 244

by maynard (#66123492) Attached to: The California Government Is Coming For Your E-Bikes

Speaking as a motorcycle rider, ebikes are dangerous. Not because of the bike but because of the riders. They often don't wear safety gear, they don't follow traffic laws, and many bikes top out at 70-80kph. It took considerable effort to get my Class M. A bike going that fast should require licensing and safety courses and helmet laws. Most people don't realize they can squid out on the road on an ebike just like you will on a motorcycle without proper gear.

Comment No win11. Uh uh, (Score 1) 27

by maynard (#66123482) Attached to: Microsoft's Xbox Mode Is Now Available For All Windows 11 PCs

I just installed Fedora 44 on my old Win10 laptop. Because Microsoft made sure this perfectly good laptop with 16gb RAM could not run Win11. And Affinity Suite runs great on wine now. And no obnoxious telemetry tracking. Oh yeah, for games: steam and lutris too.

Yeah yeah yeah, linux linux linux

still, Microsoft is in self-destruct mode.

Comment Re: Coders are like tradesmen (Score 2) 265

by under_score (#64527261) Attached to: Study Finds 268% Higher Failure Rates For Agile Software Projects

Hi. Agile enthusiast here. Iâ(TM)m a working coder and a manager and a consultant and a trainer all in one.

I firmly believe that Agile methods such as Scrum or Kanban are NOT for any type of work. Misery comes from mis-matching tools to jobs. Pounding a wood screw in with a hammer is possible, but really sucks, and doesnâ(TM)t result in high-quality work. Applying Scrum to non-complex (in the Cynefin sense), non-product development, non-software work is a guarantee of misery. Applying the values and principles of theâManifesto for Agile Software Developmentâ without the appropriate work environment is a total disaster.

I will freely admit that Agile (and Scrum, Kanban, etc.) also arenâ(TM)t for all personality types! I love uncertainty, variety, risk and so for me, Agile is a good fit for my personality. But if you want certainty, stability and predictability, then stay away from Agile!

Comment Re:Flawed ? Assumption in Singularity (Score 1) 67

by under_score (#64336989) Attached to: Vernor Vinge, Father of the Tech Singularity, Has Died At Age 79

So, the flaw then, at least potentially, is that without a proper theory of mind that makes that connection... and even with a validated theory of mind, we may discover that there is a fundamental LIMIT to the level of intelligence possible. We may discover that humans already represent the maximum possible level of intelligence in our given universe.

The mediocrity principle would go against us being at or near the maximum intelligence possible. If is more plausible that we are near the limit on naturally evolved intelligence, however. The reasoning is that once a species reaches the level required to start building technology, the game is over. To get significantly higher intelligence, evolving species would have to keep encountering obstacles to tool usage that even higher intelligence can not work around.

The singularity might still be impossible if turns out to be impossible for a intelligence to design an intelligence greater than itself. We see hints of this the last AI winter and the current summer. The last round got stuck because no one could purposefully design intelligence. We still can't but we've made progress by loosening the controls and allowing emergent structures that evolve from training do the heavy lifting.

Good points. I guess one question which a theory of mind might help us answer: are we optimized or are we mediocre WRT intelligence. And the AI winter stuff is also interesting because until AI tools can make better AI tools without human intervention, then I would say we aren't anywhere near a singularity anyway.

Comment Re:Flawed ? Assumption in Singularity (Score 1) 67

by under_score (#64336969) Attached to: Vernor Vinge, Father of the Tech Singularity, Has Died At Age 79

Totally. We don't currently have a workable theory of mind, maybe we never will, which goes to a point: there is (most likely) a vast amount of knowledge that we currently do not have. Perhaps there is knowledge that will forever elude us.

I love this distinction between knowledge and intelligence. Very important!

However, it's possible that whatever intelligence is, even if we (or our machines) never gain substantially "more" of it from where we are now, the amount of knowledge that we possess will increase, perhaps, at some point, exponentially, which could be interpreted as "the singularity" that could "save" us, or annihilate us, depending on what we do with all that knowledge.

I agree. And, I think we have a long way to go before we exhaust our ability to discover new knowledge. Yes, that could be a type of singularity, but I don't think it is what is normally considered for the concept.

So it may not be "intelligence" that is the limiting factor in human (and machine) evolution, but sufficient wisdom to avoid falling victim to the "great filter".

Looking at current human activity, especially "AI" (such as it is) it would seem that as limited as our current knowledge of the universe (and ourselves) is, our ability to apply that knowledge (particularly at scale) is sorely lacking in understanding and wisdom.

Yup. But I think we are growing there too. We just haven't had to face the kinds of global challenges that we are now facing, and/or, we haven't truly solved the root causes that led to previous global challenges (e.g. world wars). I'm an optimist: I believe we'll get through it all.

Comment Flawed ? Assumption in Singularity (Score 1) 67

by under_score (#64336713) Attached to: Vernor Vinge, Father of the Tech Singularity, Has Died At Age 79

All of the folks who talk about the inevitable singularity fail to make their case based on one really obvious and important assumption which --may-- be flawed.

To understand the assumption, though, requires understanding a concept related to intelligence, namely, the "theory of mind". Right now, most computer scientists and cognitive scientists believe that the mind is an emergent or contingent property of physics, chemistry, biology and evolution. However, this is not proven any more than the existence of souls are proven. This theory of mind is at the basis of all AI work and all speculation about where AI can go.

However, this theory of mind is very limited and does not describe a direct path from physics through the other disciplines to the reality we experience as humans of having intentionality, choice, self-control, an internal voice, control of our internal voice, meaning, etc. which are all part of our experience of intelligence.

So, the flaw then, at least potentially, is that without a proper theory of mind that makes that connection... and even with a validated theory of mind, we may discover that there is a fundamental LIMIT to the level of intelligence possible. We may discover that humans already represent the maximum possible level of intelligence in our given universe.

So, is a singularity even possible? We have no way of knowing until either it happens or we develop a theory of mind that can properly prove that intelligence has no upper bound.

Comment It's the content (or lack thereof) (Score 1) 109

by maynard (#62164943) Attached to: Podcasting Hasn't Produced A New Hit in Years

Most podcasts take the form of a bunch of people at a table, each by a mic, who talk about ... stuff. It's unscripted. Unplanned. Shoot from the hip. And, unsurprisingly, it's also very boring. Contrast that to Rogan, who runs a podcast I despise, but who at least has a producer plan set ups to surprise his guest with something about them or their past they'd rather not talk about. To create tension or conflict. Better, think of This American Life, which follows documentary radio format. A subject is chosen for each episode. It's broken into two or three segments with a matching theme. Producers go out and interview people in the field who have something to say and the quotes curated so you get the interesting bits and not a bunch of wandering commentary. Then there's scripted VO to tie everything together.

Podcasters have conflated disorganized talk with produced and informed commentary. And people got better things to do than listen to boring nonsense even if they're stuck in traffic. I mean, there's always music!

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