I've added the following to the story:
Errata 5/16/2010:
We originally reported that the main hole was 5 feet in diameter, spewing an estimated 4 barrels per second, with a possible total approaching 1 million barrels/day. The pipe is actually 21 inches in diameter; and the high end estimated total leakage is in the range of 3.4 barrels/day (Ref.). We deeply regret the error.
And I've added this from Paul Noel:
May 15 Update and Correction
Take a look at the May 15 story in the New York Times: Scientists Find Giant Plumes of Oil Forming Under the Gulf.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/us/16oil.html
This represents the oil per my prediction including the distillation that I told you was happening with the tar balls. The stunning implication is that I was wrong in quantity and the leak may in fact be much larger than I said. My curiosity has to do with the motion of these mats. Will they sink or will they warm up and float up somewhere? Big surprises and not fun ones could be in store. I sort of suspect they will hang around and wander for a while and then rise to the surface. (Only a suspicion-- Lets hope it doesn't happen!) Round and round they go, where they stop nobody knows.
Just one mat the size described represents over 240,000 barrels per day over the entire spill duration and the article implies more than one of these! We are absolutely safe to say I am totally confirmed on oil volumes and then some. The article suggests 4 or 5 such mats. If this is so the gush could easily have exceeded 1 million barrels of oil per day.
I can safely say now that if there was any doubt of what I was saying about the leak there should be no doubt now.
On a side note: I just learned from Alabama sources that the situation is far worse than is being portrayed. No facts to describe this except that qualitative analysis.
Sterling the riser is in fact and I was wrong on the size it is a 21 inch riser. Sorry to all but none the less it is massive. Even if the pressure were 20,000 PSI shouldn't that about be Sci-Fi to most people. You don't want to stand in the way of that for sure. I suspect based on the mat sizes that my pressure statements are correct.
The facts are that BP has just kicked out into the ocean a spill that is much more than equal to Exxon Valdez every day for 18 days now. It could be 3 times that every day.
I will say it now and without any reservation: The heads of BP, Haliburton and Transocean should be arrested and tried under the Common Law for crimes against humanity and against nature itself. On conviction they should be executed for their crimes as a monument to corporate management that you should never consider to do such evil deeds again. What has happened here is beyond war crimes. It is absolutely evil what they have done. Silence and no action on this licenses more disasters to come.
BP testimony before Congress states that their worst case was 60,000 Barrels per day. That estimate is at least 7 times too low to account for the now observed facts. I am assuming only one such mat exists for this estimate. I can only guess based on this that my estimates could be low by a very wide margin. I am definitely not high at all.
My apologies for any errors that may have allowed distraction, but this situation is vastly out of hand.
I think if you realize that one mat described is about 1.7 cubic miles in size, and the well keeps on blowing and easily could do this for years, you get a hint of the size of the oil deposit under the Gulf of Mexico. At this rate the Deposit could deliver in 1 year something in the order of 35 cubic miles of oil. It could blow for a decade or more if it is not stopped. It isn't anywhere near out. I just hope they get it corked up shortly. That relief well they are drilling could blowout too!
I told you there was a "dragon" down there! [Symbolism] I have warned people that he has only nipped us. [Symbolism]
This is by no means the limit of this deposit. You could get many times this much out of the deposit. The facts that have now come to light should absolutely settle once and for all the following facts.
[1]There is no energy shortage.
[2] The oil men have been manipulating us terribly for decades.
[3] That solving the energy needs of the world using oil is too costly and unbelievably dangerous for us in so many ways that only a crazy person would try.
[4] Alternative energy is a much better option.
[5] If I was wrong it was because I was too conservative.
...
A warning here: The removal of 2 cubic miles of oil from this deposit is setting us up for a sea floor collapse. We could see earthquakes, tsunami and worse. We may get by with very little or no problem but the risk grows each passing day. I do not want to predict such. I only say they are possible. Action at Petronius nearby has in the past caused 4.0 earthquakes and near Atmore Alabama they also caused similar earthquakes. I think the shifts and energies there were actually much lower.
Please note the discussion of depletion of Oxygen in the water columns in the article. This spill is going to assassinate sea life in massive quantities. Unaccounted for in their studies is the massive quantity of natural gas escaping which is probably even more damaging in this respect than is the release of oil.
I know I have sounded insane to some. I wish I was wrong. I wish above all things that this could get stopped up and we could at least begin the process of recovery.
Sterling: It was a bit of hyperbole that this could kill all life in the oceans but now it seems more like the plague in the bible where a 1/3 of living things in the sea died and the sea became as blood. I am not trying to say it is that bad, but it is awful. People have to understand the massive dangers here.
All of this having been said, I am not against deep sea drilling. I am in favor of strict safety management of the oil drillers. I am in favor of being more careful. I have nice words to say about the heroism and bravery of the oilmen who risk their lives in trying to get us oil. I am dead set against the killing of our earth in a reckless mad rush for saving a few dollars on the way. We demand safety of our Airlines, how much more should we demand of these people.
A painful analysis of the energy situation has to be made. Mankind must turn away from oil but in turning away it will take 50 or 60 years to make the turn. Until that time we will need oil. This is something that will take much time and effort. It is the work of lifetimes. I have supreme confidence that we have the ability to do this. But even the best solutions require much time. We have to start the journey. It is time for us to head for the land where we will be Beyond Petroleum and not with BP. Wasting time here only assures more sorrows.
