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Comment Statistically less interesting than a coin flip (Score 1) 281

In order to understand this you have to also look at how many people it "recommended" to you that you did not know. My guess is that number is extremely high. The fact that you found one interesting person in that mix of results is interesting to you. As a result your amazement is a form of hindsight bias. You think it is amazing because they connected you. In reality it is closer to luck brought by the vast number of connections available in Facebook. This hit or miss scenario is referred to as sensitivity and specificity. The number of hits that are actually connected (out of the number of total recommendations) vs the number that they did not recommend to you because they didn't think they were connected (thrown in the trash bin). To truly know how magically good the algorithm for suggested connections is you have to know both stats, and I don't know how likely it is that FB would give you that information.

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