Comment Re:No mention of Peak Oil (Score 1) 515
You're right, although we're not going to "run out" of oil any time soon. The problem is the phrase from the title: peak oil. That is, oil production will peak and then decline as demand (and population) increases. Oil will still be produced but it will be less every year.
Those who think peak oil is not going to be a big factor in 2020 are fooling themselves. Although it's true that estimates of the URR (ultimately recoverable reserve) vary, it is extremely difficult to plot a production curve that doesn't peak later than the 2020s. This is using the extremely optimistic USGS estimates of the URR. Many geologists believe that almost all of the world's oil has already been found.
I recommend you read this paper from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre for an explanation of why IEA projections are unrealistic.
http://www.odac-info.org/assessments/documents/IE
BTW, Canadian oil sands are not expected to account for more than a few million barrels of oil a day at their peak production. This amount is not enough to make up for the shortfall from depletion.
At any rate, the world of 2020 will likely be a post-peak world, with all the geopolitical implications of this event.
