As a favour to a friend, I spent several hours last night making a Winmodem work in Hardy Heron installation on a 2 or 3 year old HP computer. If this was a Windows computer, the modem would have recognized immediately by the OS and the computer would have been ready to connect to Internet via PPP without any sweat (that's what it was doing up to a couple of weeks ago when his hard drive died and I persuaded my buddy to go the Ubuntu route).
Working with Ubuntu , I was forced to wade through all sorts of technical issues regarding getting a driver for the modem (scanModem works well but I just don't think such a tool should be necessary). Fortunately for my friend, I'm persistent, have a Ph.D. in computer science and used to run a lab based on Solaris (which gave me some insight into Linux). All I wanted is a driver for the damn modem. I didn't care and don't care where it came from. Even better, there'd be plug and play. The frustration was huge. I was cursing penguins, Linus Torvalds, OSS and geekdom in general. There's a heck of a lot that impressed me about Ubuntu but it was a real pain in the ass to work through this driver issue. My experience last night was certainly going to make no one in Microsoft worry about losing a customer (I work primarily on Windows servers and workstations).
My friend whose computer it is, is a non-techical person (almost a Luddite) who just wants to use his computer to do his job (he creates newsletters for an organic produce co-op). He would have never figured out how to set up his computer in a million years. I almost gave up and told him that he'd have to shell out the money for a Windows (he had lost his original XP installation CD). Fortunately for him I'm very stubborn.
I'm now very sceptical that Linux will see the mainstream unless the community can make things easier for users.
For all the valid criticisms of Apple and Microsoft, I think it can't be denied that they work towards usability for the average guy who doesn't know anything computers and doesn't care. That doesn't seem to be important to the world of Linux. My friend shouldn't have needed me to make his modem work.
Open source or not Linux needs drivers for devices in commodity-type computers that are easy for novices to install and use.