Unfortunately they seem to have a decent case with a good chance of winning, according to some neutral legal experts..

I doubt it. My guess would be that the seizure was done by the Dutch High Tech Crime unit, which in general is not politically driven. With a socialist party in government such harassment would cause a major political incident, so it simply is not worth it. Far more likely the service came up during a criminal investigation and the High Tech Crime unit thinks it can still salvage some important evidence from the seized servers.

Yes, a verbal contract that those pictures are private. That is what the court says. If the photographer wanted to use those photographs once their relationship was over, he should have let her sign a contract. He didn't. I think the German court made a very wise decision here. One which says you should be able to trust your friend. And if that trust is misplaced, the courts will be on your side.