Comment Re:Arizona? (Score 1) 41
I get why Arizona sounds good on a checklist; I live here, and I know what we have to offer. But I also know how to calculate the carrying capacity of our desert paradise, and we've exceeded it. A while ago, actually. This isn’t a SimCity tile—it’s a real state with real limits. What looks good in a slide deck often breaks when scaled to reality. And Arizona is already failing under the weight of its current expansion. You make the case that Arizona is an ideal location for a trillion-dollar semiconductor hub, citing business-friendly policies, a skilled workforce, favorable weather, infrastructure stability, and general livability. On paper, it checks all the boxes. In practice? Not so much.
1. A favorable business climate.
That’s a euphemism for “massive taxpayer-funded subsidies.” Favorable for whom, exactly? Because when the bill comes due for roads, water infrastructure, power upgrades, and housing booms, it’s the public that pays—not the shareholders cashing in on Son's vision quest.
2. Skilled workforce, specifically in semiconductors
Arizona has some talent, sure—but not Shenzhen levels. We’re already seeing labor shortfalls in existing fabs. Where are the tens of thousands of additional engineers and technicians supposed to come from? Are we assuming they’ll teleport in fully trained and acclimated to 110F summers?
3. Low humidity
True. Also true: a low water table and evaporating reservoirs. We haven't hit the level of urban water rationing that California is undergoing, at least not yet, but we are already mandating tiered reductions in agricultural water deliveries from the Colorado River. The writing is on the wall. Dry air is great for clean rooms. It’s less great when the state’s aquifers are collapsing under the weight of industrial drawdown. Dropping a water-hoovering trillion dollar fab into our already strained water supply is catastrophically shortsighted.
4. Stable geology. No earthquakes. No hurricanes. No blizzards.
Those are all kinda true, but these are table stakes, not compelling reasons. No earthquakes? Pretty true, but so is subsidence induced by aquifer depletion, which is happening right now in the Casa Grande valley, and is only going to be accelerated with more fabs inhaling our already inadequately recharged aquifers. And not being hit by a hurricane is a low bar for a trillion-dollar investment. Meanwhile, the real threats—water, energy, housing—are already looming. No blizzards is nice, but it is not a compelling pitch when you’re about to overload the power grid, drain the aquifers, and price locals out of the housing market.
5. Stable utilities. No power blackouts.
Not yet, anyway. But they will come. TSMC’s plant alone pulls enough juice for 300,000 homes. Add a trillion dollar fab hub, and now you’re playing Jenga with the grid during summer AC season. Grid stability is a fragile thing, especially during a summer season that stretches from May - October and where triple digit temperatures are a daily occurrence. And, just to be clear, Arizona already imports roughly a third of its electricity annually, with spikes over fifty percent happening regularly during our very long summer season—hardly what you'd call grid independence. Add a trillion-dollar fab hub to that load, and you're not planning an industrial boom. You're planning brownouts subsidized by tax payers, giving the corporations that are causing them a free ride.
6. Located close to labor in Mexico for packaging. Direct flights to Asia.
So... we’re just going to drop a megacomplex into a desert because the flights are good? NAFTA lanes and proximity to packaging labor don’t magically conjure up water, housing, or energy capacity. That's logistics cosplay, not site planning.
7. Decent universities
Sure. Proud UofA grad, here. But let’s not pretend ASU and UofA are churning out tens of thousands of fab-ready engineers every year. The talent pipeline is real—but it’s not bottomless. And unless you start handing out EE degrees with every iced horchata at Eegee’s, you're still going to need to import a significant workforce.
8. An attractive location for new employees to relocate to. Arizona is a nice place to live with affordable housing.
Just...no. The idea that Phoenix is a low cost-of-living city has not been true since before the turn of the century. Yes, it’s cheaper than California’s worst offenders, but that’s a low bar—not a compelling argument. According to sources like Payscale and RentCafe, Phoenix’s overall cost of living now sits above the national average, driven largely by housing. Median home prices and average rents have surged in the last decade, while wages haven’t kept pace. Utilities aren’t exactly a bargain either—keeping your AC running six months out of the year isn’t cheap, no matter how stable the grid is. The narrative of Phoenix as a haven of affordability was true decades ago, but those days are long gone. The city's growth has priced out many of its own residents and a trillion-dollar fab hub would only accelerate the squeeze. Median home prices have more than doubled since 2015, jumping from around $200,000 to over $450,000. Phoenix is walking the same path San Jose did forty years ago and we know how that ended: tech wealth on one end, housing collapse on the other. Drop a trillion-dollar project on top of that and “affordable” becomes a historical footnote. Just ask the people already being priced out of Mesa and Chandler.