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Comment Re:Crap in, crap out (Score 1) 69

Wild off the cuff guess stat. 80% of content being consumed by LLM is untrustworthy, opinion, wrong, brain farts.

This is just numerology masquerading as evidence. When the opening move is “wild off the cuff guess” and the next move is a percentage, that is not data analysis. That is a vibe cosplaying as rational thought. Training data quality is a real problem. So are filtering, curation, retrieval, evals, domain tuning, and human review. “The web contains garbage” does not prove that models cannot extract useful structure from it. Compilers consume source written by humans too; somehow LLVM survived Stack Overflow.

Anyone who believes LLM will lead to Gen AI doesn't get the tech or has an incomplete definition of Gen AI. We really need a new Turing test, we kinda cheated the test with LLM, made a parrot instead of a person.

Now you are just playing bait-and-switch with definitions. For AGI, say AGI. For generative AI, the ship has already left port. And “parrot or person” is the false dichotomy at the center of the whole performance. LLMs do not need to be conscious citizens with library cards to be useful systems. The question in this thread is not whether ChatGPT has a soul. The question is whether particular copying, training, output, and platform design cross copyright lines. Your parrot/person routine is theatrical fog, and when it's this thick and obvious, it is usually because somebody is trying to obscure their bias.

The principal flaw of LLM AI as a business is that producing content wasn't a problem we needed to solve. We were drowning in the stuff already.

Nice product-market strawman. “Producing content” is not the only use case, nor even the most interesting one. Summarizing 80 pages, interrogating logs, turning vague specs into tests, translating formats, drafting boring boilerplate, extracting facts from PDFs, building code scaffolding, and helping users query systems in natural language are not solved by shouting “more content!” Databases were not pointless because we already had files. When new technology disrupts an ecological niche, the people pushed out of the niche start lining up strawmen in defense. Your argument here is older than the buggy whip makers who whined that automobile makers were killing their art.

LLMs give a great search and summary feature, but I don't see a way to monetise that with ads like google does...

So...one business model treated as destiny. Treating ad-tech as the only viable business model shows a massive lack of imagination. Google-style ads are not how enterprise software scales, and are not the only way LLMs makes money. Enterprises buy latency reduction, workflow automation, support deflection, developer acceleration, compliance review, document analysis, and boring internal productivity nobody will ever put in a Super Bowl commercial. Your Copilot adoption anecdote may be true in your shop, but an anecdote is a packet capture from one subnet. Generalizing from that to the whole network is bad telemetry.

I work with a lot of ambitious go getters, who would I promote? The one who leans on AI to produce some samey looking dross, or the one who can innovate and communicate independently...

More false dichotomies, this time it's tool use recast as moral failure. The choice is not AI dross versus independent genius. The choice is bad judgment versus good judgment. Good people already use search engines, spreadsheets, IDEs, compilers, code review, dashboards, staff work, LLMs, and lawyers. A leader who pastes "samey" AI sludge is weak. A leader who uses AI to explore options, pressure-test assumptions, and communicate faster has not been compromised. The bottleneck is still judgment. A Hollywood director who uses AI to storyboard five different versions of a scene is still being creative; he is leveraging the AI samey-ness you are decrying to get a more fine-grained look at the scene before he commits resources to filming it. That is a win for both the audience and the bean counters back at the studio HQ.

Then there is a phenomenal trust issue...

Spare us the sermon. These are real issues; nobody denies that trust, provenance, validation cost, confidentiality, copyright, and vendor terms are all real deployment concerns. They belong on the checklist. But welding them to “employees getting dumber” is no different from when my high school principal tried to forbid calculators and had to be taken to court to make him join the twentieth century. That was during the Carter administration, btw -- your argument is fifty years old. We already review junior work, consultant work, SQL migrations, security patches, vendor output, and code changes. The adult answer is measurement, sandboxing, governance, and evals, not declaring every inference engine a cognitive tapeworm.

And this is where the actual legal story matters. The Cox decision makes it harder to pin contributory liability on a provider merely because it knew infringement was happening downstream. Intent matters. Inducement matters. Tailoring matters. That is why NYT is now aiming at Microsoft’s alleged role in building and operating the machinery, not just shouting “AI cloud bad.” That is the real fight. Not parrots. Not personhood. Not whether Bob in accounting wrote a dull memo with Copilot.

Nope.

“Nope” is not an argument. It is just a vibe with a punctuation mark.

I don't doubt there are niche specialist applications... but specialise and grow your own... Don't end up dependent on a supplier...

You make the accidental good point. Specialize. Keep sensitive data controlled. Avoid lock-in. Prefer vetted corpora. Use local or open models where they fit. Put APIs behind abstraction layers. Maintain exit ramps. Do human review on high-stakes output. Yes. Absolutely. That is not an anti-AI argument; that is ordinary systems engineering and vendor hygiene with the cloud invoice scotch-taped to the front.

So, in a bucket: you took a narrow copyright-liability story and stapled to it every anti-AI talking point from the break room bulletin board. Some of your concerns survive cross-examination, but most of the big claims you are making die from false dichotomy, anecdote laundering, and category confusion: AGI, GenAI, search, copyright, trust, productivity, and cloud lock-in all blended into one rhetorical smoothie. The law is asking whether Microsoft induced infringement or tailored services to it, and you hijacked that into whether parrots can be people.

Comment Causal inference doesnt require pedestrian piñ (Score 1) 327

For starters, that's an observational study, not a double blind one. You can't claim causality. It's important data, but it's not causality.

True, but only in the narrowest textbook sense. It is also entirely irrelevant to traffic safety research. Unless your standard for causality requires a double-blind trial where researchers randomly assign pedestrians to be struck by different classes of vehicles, observational studies with robust regression controls are the gold standard.

Second, you can't look at only one side of the equation - you can't pick and choose which variables you are going to use and which ones you are going to ignore!

Exactly. Congratz on successfully regurgitating the first paragraph of your Inferential Statistics 101 text book. Which is why the actual researchers didn't do that. The IIHS study didn't just yell "trucks bad" at a spreadsheet. They used NHTSA crash data, fatality data, vehicle measurements, and registration data, applying regression models to control for confounding variables. They looked at nearly 18,000 single-vehicle/single-pedestrian crashes and still found that tall, blunt front ends substantially increased pedestrian fatality risk.

Are those bars saving more lives? How many people were dying inside vehicles vs outside of the vehicles back in 2009? Maybe the regulators and the industry optimized for the right thing and saves tens of thousands of lives as a net result. Everything is tradeoff. If you don't understand how tradeoffs work, then don't go making studies like this? Maybe.."Oh, the bar that saves lives when accidents happen increased blind spot sizes, ohhhhh", so they started adding the blind spot indicators at the same time to make up for it - did the study look at the effect of that?

Maybe, indeed. Those are excellent questions. But "maybe" is doing a lot of heavy lifting for you here. If you want to claim that tall hoods have saved tens of thousands of occupant lives to offset the pedestrian fatalities, the burden of proof is on you to provide that data. Hitchens's razor applies: what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. I'm with Hitchens here: Put up, or STFU.

And about those blind-spot indicators -- they don't solve what is fundamentally a geometry problem compounded by physics. Blind-spot indicators address adjacent-lane awareness; they are not a magic amulet against the front blind zone created by a 45-inch hood. Furthermore, a dash-cam or an AEB sensor does not change the impact mechanics when a collision inevitably occurs. A tall, blunt front end hits higher on the center of mass, driving the pedestrian down under the wheels rather than up onto a deformable hood. You cannot solve a kinetic energy transfer problem with a warning beep.

I hate this. Folks do a completely flawed study and then boast whatever conclusion they already wanted in the first place.

Righhhhht. Dismissing controlled regression analyses because you prefer a hypothetical "maybe" is certainly a choice, but it isn't a compelling counter-argument.

Comment Re:Why (Score 5, Insightful) 327

Why do cars have tall hoods, long hoods and off-centre driving positions? I dont think every car should be a go kart but I never understood why a centred view with more near visibility would not be desirable.

The off-center driver position is not the bad design choice here. That part is mostly boring old human-factors engineering. You are on the right track when you talk about a centered view with more near visibility. You just need a slightly bigger picture. In right-side traffic countries, the driver sits on the left because that puts the driver’s eyes closer to the centerline of the road, which improves sight lines for oncoming traffic, passing, lane placement, and not shaving the paint off opposing vehicles. The view you are optimizing is not the center line of the vehicle, but the center line of the road it is travelling down. In left-side traffic countries, you just mirror this. The “best” side is whichever side puts the driver closest to the middle of the road.

With that said, to bring this back to your question about tall and long hoods—the defenders of the modern brodozer will inevitably point to two things: physics and the EPA. They aren't entirely wrong. Pushing modern trucks to absurd 15,000-lb towing capacities requires massive radiators, which dictate taller front ends. Furthermore, the EPA's CAFE footprint rules actively incentivized automakers to bloat vehicle dimensions to qualify for laxer fuel economy targets. But while engineering requirements and federal loopholes provided the massive canvas, they don't explain the aggressively hostile design language painted onto it.

The aesthetic decisions behind these front ends flow from a fairly straight-forward psychological model of the truck-buying American public. They are based on a phenomenon that social psychologists call "status signalling compensatory consumption." Study after study show that an economically significant chunk of the male demographic buys status-signaling products to patch perceived deficits in their social power, status, identity, or masculinity. Marketing departments didn't accidentally discover that pickups sell better when wrapped in dominance cosplay, cliff-face grillework, and ad copy that smells faintly of elk musk. These front ends aren't optimized for pedestrian safety, or even aerodynamic efficiency; they are optimized to extract $80,000 from buyers desperate to project the authority they feel they lack.

Comment Re:Don't jump to conclusions (Score 2) 211

Tell me what is truthful about obscuring negative associations with an ideology?

“Obscuring negative associations” is doing a lot of unpaid labor there. First establish the association. Then establish that reliable sources treat it as significant. Then establish that Wikipedia is suppressing it rather than applying due weight. Until then, this is Russell’s teapot with a swastika armband.

Comment Dude, read Kuhn. Please. (was Re:The Hive mind) (Score 2) 211

You are right that science has no obligation to give every crank theory equal time. Climate denial does not become a coequal scientific position just because someone demands “balance.” That is exactly what sensationalist media and cable news (looking at you, Fox News) has been doing for decades—fooling low-information viewers into thinking crackpot conspiracies belong on the same stage as rigorous scientific research. On that point, you'll get no argument from me.

But you are smuggling in a false dichotomy. The alternatives are not “scientific truth” on one side and “social-media shouting” on the other. Science is not Twitter with lab coats, but it is still a social process. Peer review, replication, conferences, journals, grant fights, disciplinary norms, consensus formation, and paradigm shifts are not decorative plumbing. They are the machinery.

If you haven't read "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" by Thomas Kuhn, this a really good point for you to pick it up. If you have read it, then I would suggest you need to re-read it. Science is fundamentally a social process. It was Kuhn’s central insight. He did not show that facts are democratic, or that electrons take a caucus vote before tunneling. He showed that what counts as a good question, a valid method, a decisive anomaly, or an acceptable explanation is mediated through scientific communities operating within paradigms. The objectivity comes from the discipline of that process, not from pretending the process does not exist.

Wikipedia is even more obviously social. It is not a laboratory and it is not a journal. It is a consensus-driven encyclopedia that summarizes reliable sources under rules like verifiability, due weight, and no false balance. That means the climate denial article should not pretend denialism has the same standing as climate science. But it also means “Wikipedia doesn’t debate” is an absurd claim. Wikipedia is practically made of talk pages, RfCs, noticeboards, policy arguments, and edit wars with footnotes.

Truth is not democratic. Fine. But Wikipedia's neutrality is negotiated. If that negotiation is disciplined by good sources and due weight, it can work. If it is captured by factional editing, rule-gaming, or selective enforcement, then calling it “science” does not cleanse the problem. It just gives the hive mind a lab coat.

Comment Re:Missing the point as usual (Score 2) 29

Once again, the non-creatives like Belsky completely fail to understand why creatives (and those sympathetic) are upset about Ai.
It's not because the prompt-generated garbage is garbage.

Fair enough. Then we're not really discussing creativity or artistic merit, are we? We're discussing labor economics. You can't have it both ways, friend.

And if he thinks CEOs and bean counters won't push to use the Ai to save money by cutting staff and creative budgets, he's delusional or willfully stupid.

History suggests they'll absolutely try. Capital has been replacing expensive labor with cheaper tools since the first accountant discovered the abacus. But that's a separate argument. You've constructed a false dichotomy where AI is either worthless "prompt-generated garbage" or a tool for eliminating artists. Those are not the only two possibilities. A24 exploring a third option: AI as a collaborator and creative amplifier.

Let go of your bias for a moment. A storyboard artist who can explore fifty concepts in a day instead of five is still creating. A screenwriter who can rapidly test dialogue variations is still writing. A director who can visualize scenes before committing a budget is still directing.

The tool changes. The creative process remains. You seem to be willfully ignoring this reality in your argument. There is way more to being creative than just coming up with an original thought or vision.

First they came for the storyboard artists, and I said nothing, because who the F*ck cares about storyboards?

I think you are missing some history here. The modern storyboard was popularized at Disney in the early 1930s when Webb Smith started pinning sketches to a board so directors could experiment with sequences before spending time and money animating them. Drawing fifty sketches was cheaper than animating fifty scenes. It was literally a labor-saving innovation that allowed creative people to iterate faster. It was such a useful hack that it became the industry standard very, very quickly.

And other technologies followed the exact same trajectory -- non-linear digital editing systems, CGI, even Photoshop. Every generation of creative tooling is greeted by predictions that creativity itself is under attack. But being creative is more than just coming up with an entertaining idea. It also includes getting it out there so that an audience can appreciate it. That is what directors do. If you want to monetize it at the same time, fine -- that is what studios are for. You have a very narrow definition of creative, if it doesn't include all the scaffolding that creatives actually need to produce a work that can be shared, for profit or otherwise.

The real question is not whether AI can contribute to the creative process. It demonstrably can. The real question is: When an AI is inserted into the process, who captures the productivity gains? That's a debate worth having. You are welcome to join, if you can stop pretending the only possible outcomes are "AI garbage" or "artist unemployment". Until then, you are missing a much more interesting and relevant discussion.

Comment Guardrails around what, exactly? (Score 1) 41

The interesting part here is not that there are suddenly "responsible AI" groups on both sides of the AI policy binary, but that that everyone with a stake in the debate around AI has discovered "guardrails" as the new magic word.

Look at ARIAM. It is not a grassroots creators' revolt. It is a coalition of incumbent content companies, publishers, and mission-aligned tech firms trying to shape the legal environment around AI. Copyright, attribution, liability, and provenance are real issues; I'm fairly certain Disney, Adobe, the New York Times, Conde Nast, Wiley, the BBC, et al. have not wandered into this debate as disinterested philosophers of human creativity. They have assets to defend, licensing markets to create, and future tollbooths to position. You can bet they are trying to figure out how to plant a cop and a tollbooth between creators who see AI as a collaborator and tool, and the vast catalogs of old media that Big Tech AI companies are already pillaging for training sets.

The Guardrails Alliance has the same problem from the political side. Calling this Super PAC "grassroots" is doing a lot of semantic cardio. A Super PAC aiming to convert the discontent of tech workers into cash donations, launched by political operatives (not tech workers!), with millions already in the barrel, is not exactly a grassroots movement. Again, that does not make its policy goals wrong. But it does mean the "ordinary workers vs Big Tech" framing deserves the same skepticism we would apply if the labels were reversed. Guardrails has not filed their first FEC report, so we don't know (yet) where that $5M in seed financing came from. I'm going to bet it wasn't from a collection of disgruntled coders and studio artists worried that they were being asked to train their LLM-based replacements. I wouldn't be surprised if this is just the AI version of every grievance PAC that apparatchiks on both sides of the political divide have been farming low-information voters with since Citizens United made that kind of grift legal. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

I think the pattern that is emerging is pretty straightforward. AI policy is not a binary anymore (if it ever was.) AI policy is a multi-sided auction. One side, Big Tech incumbents like OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Anthropic, want broad freedom to scrape, train, deploy, and preempt regulation. Another side wants safety rules that may also conveniently raise barriers to entry and protect existing jobs. A third side wants copyright, licensing, and liability rules that let them safely monetize their media catalogs, old and new, and charge rent for anything they control the IP for. And in the back row of the auction house are the indie devs, open-weight model tinkerers, and local-inference gurus trying to run useful AI on hardware they actually own. At least they are not jumping on the guardrails bandwagon. Yet. :)

Everybody can say "we want guardrails around AI." Everybody can invoke democracy, safety, creators, workers, children, innovation, or national competitiveness. The question is not which faction has the prettiest noun pile. The question is who gets paid, who gets regulated out of the market, and who gets to write the definitions of what LLMs are allowed and not allowed to do.

Let's put the guardrails where they really need to be. Before buying any of the rhetoric, I want to see the donor lists, the advisers, the vendors, the affiliated nonprofits, and the model legislation. "Guardrails" can mean public safety. It can also mean a velvet rope around somebody else’s cash register, or a visit from the copyright police because your ChatGPT prompt created a token string that Disney or the BBC or NYT says belongs to them.

Comment Re:Don't Be Evil, Be Reimbursable. (Score 1) 47

You're talking about it like NASA has ever built a rocket themselves. They always turned to the private sector to do the actual work. General Dynamics, Boeing, Douglas, Rocketdyne, Lockheed... And now SpaceX, Blue Origin...

But the idea that a company that has yet to get a rocket out of the atmosphere is going to build an interplanetary transport in two years seems... optimistic. I'm not sure that was a wise choice.

I agree with that much. I am not arguing that NASA historically had a secret government rocket foundry staffed by civil servants in short-sleeve shirts and pocket protectors. Apollo, Shuttle, SLS/Artemis, Orion...all of it leaned heavily on private contractors. That is not my objection.

The distinction I am drawing is between “NASA contracts with industry to build hardware under fairly explicit procurement rules” and “a billionaire-controlled company with no orbital launch history gets folded into a public-private Mars mission whose money flow, data rights, ownership structure, and downstream commercial benefits are not very clear from the public announcement.”

COTS is actually a good comparison point, because SpaceX at least had to hit milestones in a program whose purpose was openly to develop commercial cargo transportation. That was the deal: NASA wanted commercial ISS logistics, SpaceX wanted a launch/services business, and the milestones were the meat grinder that Musk had to sausage his way through.

Here, Relativity has not yet put a rocket into orbit, Terran R still has to prove itself, and now the company is talking about a 2028 Mars orbiter, with NASA instruments riding along, while Schmidt is also interested in orbital data centers and private space observatories. Maybe this is brilliant. Maybe NASA gets a bargain. Maybe Schmidt eats most of the risk.

But that is exactly why I want the numbers and terms visible, and why I am more than a little concerned that they are using a 68 year old paragraph in the congressional act that created NASA to hide those numbers and terms, all under the watchful eye of a billionaire appointed to run NASA by a billionaire President.

If the answer is “NASA pays little, the data is public, Relativity carries the performance risk, and the public gets useful science,” great. Put that on the table. If the answer is “NASA supplies credibility, instruments, mission value, and validation while Schmidt’s company gets heritage for a future private infrastructure stack,” then that is Dr Evil wearing a NASA mission patch.

With that said, I agree with your second point completely: picking a company that has not yet reached orbit for an interplanetary transport job on a 2028 timeline is not exactly a low-pucker-factor decision.

Comment Don't Be Evil, Be Reimbursable. (Score 5, Interesting) 47

Public-private space partnerships are not inherently bad. NASA buying commercial services can make perfect sense. COTS helped give us SpaceX, and whatever else one thinks of Musk, reusable Falcon launches were not exactly a rounding error in the history of spaceflight.

But transparency is the thin line between public-private partnership and a billionaire infrastructure layaway plan.

So now Eric Schmidt, yes, that Eric Schmidt from Google’s deliciously ironic “Don’t be evil” era, takes control of Relativity Space after it runs into funding trouble, installs himself as CEO, and suddenly Relativity gets picked for a Mars orbiter mission. NASA gets useful atmospheric science out of it, sure. Daily global Martian weather data is real science, not hand-wavy TED-talk vapor. But the interesting part is the scaffolding: Relativity supplies the spacecraft, rocket, and cruise operations, while NASA supplies the instruments and the public purpose.

That is very close to the Elon Musk template. Do useful work for government customers, gain launch heritage, build factories, normalize regulatory access, wrap the whole thing in national destiny and science, then aim the resulting machine at the founder’s private cathedral. In Musk’s case, Mars colonization and DOGE-flavored state capture. In Schmidt’s case, orbital data centers and privately backed space observatories. And look who approved the deal -- Jared Issacman, Trump’s hand-picked commercial-space billionaire with deep ties to Musk and SpaceX, now sitting on top of the agency that decides which private space companies get wrapped in the flag, the science mission, and the launch manifest.

Maybe this is a good deal. Maybe NASA is getting a bargain. Maybe Schmidt is putting real private money behind real public science. But Eric...remember the don't-be-evil days at Google? If that is the case, show the numbers. Under a Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) contract, the government has explicit data rights and strict oversight. But the Space Act Agreement that this project is authorized under bypasses that transparency.

Who pays whom? Who owns what? What data is public? What infrastructure becomes commercially reusable? What happens if Relativity misses the 2028 launch window? What private projects of yours are going to benefit from NASA-paid mission experience? And why is a “reimbursable” Space Act Agreement being described in the press like NASA hired the company, while the dollar figure remains undisclosed? If the public is funding the operational heritage and validating the hardware platform, does the public own the telemetry? Or is the public merely a tenant in an infrastructure stack you are going to privatize?

This is "go ahead and be evil, if you can hide the bodies" territory. I'm not being cynical or anti-science, here. This is basic hygiene when billionaires start using science as a fig leaf for projects that also happen to build their next monopoly platform.

Comment The battery brick is better but It's still a brick (Score 1) 75

I would happily own some version of an electric ultralight, gyroplane, or breakfast-hop airport toy if the numbers ever worked for my wallet and my runway.

But that is exactly why the hype needs to be separated from the engineering.

This solid-state flight is pretty cool. A modified Pipistrel Taurus motor glider flying on 410 Wh/kg solid-state cells is genuinely interesting. Current electric aircraft batteries are in the rough neighborhood of 200-260 Wh/kg; 410 Wh/kg is a serious improvement. Push that toward 500 Wh/kg and you have made the battery brick much better. Sadly, it is still a brick, though, and it doesn't really fix the main problem with electric aircraft.

The number this press release is dancing around is energy density. Aviation fuel is roughly 12,000 Wh/kg. Compare that to 410 Wh/kg and you are looking at about a 29:1 raw energy-density gap. Yes, electric motors are far more efficient than piston or turbine engines, so electric clawbacks are real. Give electric a very generous 3x efficiency advantage and you are still looking at a 10:1 practical energy density gap. That is not a rounding error. That is the payload-range equation walking into the room and taking a crowbar to your electric-planes-are-better pitch deck. :)

The payload problem gets ugly fast. Take the simple case: a two-seat airplane versus a four-seat airplane flying the same short route. In a liquid fuel aircraft, adding two passengers increases weight and fuel burn, but the extra fuel needed for that same leg is comparatively small because liquid fuel is so energy-dense, and that fuel is burned off during the flight. In an electric aircraft, those two extra passengers directly displace battery mass. To get the lost range back, you add battery. But now the airplane is heavier because of the added battery, so you need still more battery to carry the battery you just added. That recursive weight penalty is where the spreadsheet turns feral. With liquid fuel, payload growth mostly means a very modest fuel-burn penalty. With batteries, payload growth attacks the core range equation because the energy store is heavy, low-density, and stays aboard all the way to landing.

This matters because commercial aviation is not a science fair lap around the pattern, which is what this test essentially was. It is payload, range, utilization, reserve fuel, alternate-airport planning, maintenance downtime, charging infrastructure, battery cycle life, insurance, certification, and load factor. The airplane has to make money on Tuesday afternoon in ugly weather with a real schedule, not just fly once for a press release while everyone claps.

This is why electric aviation makes sense only for narrowly defined, rigidly constrained missions. Trainers doing pattern work. Self-launching gliders. Short-hop recreational aircraft. Maybe small feeder routes where the aircraft, route, charger, weather limits, payload, and schedule are tightly controlled. Those are real use cases. I would love to see them mature. But multi-passenger commercial electric aviation is a different beast. Every extra passenger is payload and it launches you down the I-need-more-battery recursive rathole that also drags carrying capacity, reserve requirements, battery safety systems, and charging time down that rathole.

Solid-state batteries may expand the envelope for a narrowly defined niche market. Good. I want them to. But they do not repeal physics, and they do not repeal commercial aviation economics. And right now, energy density is going to limit the economic viability of any electric plane, even pleasure craft like this that are targeted at people with an FAA cert and some disposable income.

Comment Re:Silly. (Score 1) 75

I see no reason range for planes that carry people, couldn't also increase.

It does not solve the problem you think it solves. Not by an order of magnitude. The article is talking about a modified Pipistrel Taurus, a motor glider. It's a pleasure craft, not a commercial vehicle at all. It is making short demonstrator flights on solid-state batteries. That is legitimately interesting engineering. The ugly number the press release is dancing around is energy density.

The number the press-release is hiding from you is energy density compared to conventional liquid fuel. Aviation fuel is roughly 12,000 Wh/kg. These new solid-state cells are reported at 410 Wh/kg, and currently deployed batteries are about half that. Granted, electric motors are much more efficient than piston or turbine engines, so you claw some of that back. But -- you do not get all of it back, not even close, actually. You are still hauling around a battery that has a tiny fraction of the energy per pound of liquid fuel. And by tiny, I meant brutally tiny, especially for the current crop of batteries. The current crop of electric aircraft batteries are at ~200-260 Wh/kg. These new batteries plausibly move that toward 400-500 Wh/kg. That is a big deal. It is not a miracle. The battery brick got better, but it is still a brick.

Even the most efficient electric motors out there can't bridge the order of magnitude gap with their liquid fueled competitors. And unlike fuel, the battery does not get lighter during the flight. A conventional aircraft burns off fuel as it goes, so the airplane gets lighter and the range equation improves in flight. A battery airplane lands with essentially the same battery mass it took off with. That battery mass competes directly with passengers, baggage, structure, reserves, dispatch margins, and profit -- even in pleasure craft, where you can substitute usable range for dispatch margins and profit.

In a bucket, electric flight makes sense in only very narrow, very specific mission profiles -- trainers, and pleasure craft like this self-launching glider and other short-hop recreational aircraft. Basically, small, well-defined missions where the aircraft, charger availability, route, weather, and schedule are all tightly controlled. That is real. That is useful -- but in only very narrow economic markets. They do not repeal basic laws of physics and the payload-range equations.

Comment Re:Capitalism wins again. (Score 2) 207

Let's be clear: Attempting to prevent the customers that 'bought' your product from repairing them is NOT capitalism.

No, this is *exactly* capitalism. It just is not the fairy-tale version of capitalism you learned in your high school civics class. Capitalism is not "all about the free market." Markets are the arena where capitalism operates. Capital is the player trying to own the arena, buy the referee, lock the gates, and charge rent on the exits. Adam Smith understood this problem perfectly well, and warned against it in "The Wealth of Nations." Capitalists aren't trying to preserve competition out of civic virtue. Quite the opposite, actually. They try to restrain competition, capture markets, and secure monopoly rents whenever they can get away with it.

A competitive free market would mean I buy a device, I own the device, I can repair the device, and independent shops can compete for my repair dollars. But a corporation trying to close that repair market is not betraying capitalism. It is pursuing the perfectly capitalist goal of increasing return on capital by eliminating competition. That is the part about "capitalism" that people keep missing. Actual competition is hard on margins and murder on monopoly profits. A capitalist's first duty is to his shareholders, not the marketplace.

Real world example: Cisco refused to sell my company (very large US defense contractor) new routers until we agreed to give them back the routers we were replacing, or certified their destruction. They didn't want the competition from the used router market. Here's another example. The entire automotive industry in America was reined in back in 1975 because of their blatant attempts to control the channels around ownership of dealers, resale, warranty service, parts, diagnostics, and repair. Once the guy with the capital sells you some product, they immediately start looking for ways to keep charging rent on the thing it supposedly sold you. You've heard of Henry Ford, right? He offered to put two Model T's in every garage in America for free, if Uncle Sam would guarantee him a monopoly on repair shops. That is pure capitalism. :)

Sorry for the digression. To bring this back on point: that is exactly the same species of behavior as John Deere here. A company that can use DRM, contracts, patents, firmware locks, parts serialization, and authorized-service monopolies to turn ownership into a subscription will do exactly that unless law, regulation, or organized public pressure stops it. But naively calling this behavior "not capitalism" lets capitalism off the hook. This is apex capitalism at it's most aggressive, and until governments smother it under a blanket of regulation, it's going to keep happening.

Comment Two kinds of spin in play here... (Score 2) 262

...the quantum kind and the PR kind. Assuming the sensor works as advertised, the magnetic signature of a Black Hawk's own avionics and rotor blade static would swamp a human heartbeat's magnetic signature by many, many orders of magnitude. Unless the CIA has figured out how to build a helicopter out of wood and plastic, the most believable version of what happened is something like this:

- intelligence narrowed the search area first
- manned aircraft or drones swept the region using standard sensors.
- AI fused and filtered these multiple sensor channels, narrowing the search area further.
- quantum magnetometry contributed only at closer range. A quantum magnetometer-equipped drone swoops in to get a closer look at an object of interest for signs-of-life, and by closer in, I mean less than a meter.

There's a real technology here, NV-diamond magnetometers, but the article is swapping out physics for PR vibes. NV-diamond magnetometry is absolutely legit. MIT, NIST, and others have shown you can detect biomagnetic signals like a heartbeat. No argument there. The catch is range, and the range problem isn't solvable by engineering, because the problem is physics and simple math.

Magnetic fields fall off as the cube of the distance from the source. That's a brutal curve. If you've got a picoTesla-level signal (typical of human neural anatomy at centimeter distances) by the time you're at a meter you're down in the femtoTesla range, and much past that, you now have to separate the signal from the Earth's magnetic field, the magnetic fields of nearby geological formations, and your own sensor platform noise. A tricorder does this all the time on Star Trek, yeah, but current technology? Nope.

Getting a clean lock at ~1 meter on a picoTesla field takes on the order of a minute or so of integration. Push that to a few meters and you're talking hours. Push it to anything that looks like "search from altitude" and the integration time goes from hours to geological epochs. AI helps, but it helps by integrating over time and rejecting noise. It doesn't repeal the inverse-cube law. So the most plausible reading of the article isn't "we found a heartbeat across the desert," it's "we used AI and quantum magnetometry for close-range confirmation of signs-of-life."

Fwiw, It seems pretty clear that the Trump administration's marketing department turned this sidebar on a successful SAR op into a gee-whiz story to impress the local yokels. Quantum sensors are real, but long-range heartbeat detection is still science fiction.

Comment Re:NV centers (Score 1) 262

I think you have the right framing here: the tech is real, the range claim is where things get sketchy. For something like a cardiac signal, you're dealing with ~pT at centimeter scale, and then you take a 1/r^3 hit. By 1 meter you're already down in the few fT range, which is at or below the noise floor of anything you'd be able to loft on a drone, especially outside a shielded lab. At that point detection becomes an exercise in integration for your pet AI.

- sub-meter: plausible with enough dwell time
- 1 meter: maybe, with tens of seconds to minutes
- several meters: hours, assuming ideal conditions
- dozens of meters: not happening on any realistic timescale

AI can absolutely help tease out periodic structure from noise and improve confidence over time, but it's working with whatever signal is physically present. It can't conjure amplitude that isn't there. As the article points out, "it took some time" because they were accumulating weak signals via multiple sensor platforms. I'd ignore the PR blurb from the government and interpret this as sensor fusion with quantum magnetometry in the stack, not stand-off heartbeat detection. The former is believable; the latter runs straight into the inverse-cube wall.

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