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Comment US has fewer practicing physicians per capita (Score 1) 46

The US has fewer practicing physicians than comparable countries. The US has 2.6 physicians per 1000 population. The comparable country average is 3.6. Austria has 5.2: Switzerland 4.3: Germany 4.3: Sweden 4.3: Australia 3.8: Netherlands 3.7: France 3.2: Belgium 3.1: United Kingdom 2.8: Canada 2.7: United States 2.6: Japan 2.5. The US has fewer hospital beds per 1000 population, fewer hospitals, and the highest share of specialists. 88 percent of US doctors are specialists. https://www.healthsystemtracke... The above numbers are pre-covid. A limited supply of doctors creates long wait times for appointments and high prices.

Comment Common Sense Is Not Science (Score 1) 322

Heavier objects do not fall faster than lighter objects. The Sun and stars do not revolve around the Earth. The Earth is not flat. Stress and spicy foods do not cause ulcers. (Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) does.) Time is not constant at different speeds. Two face masks may be common sense to Fauci, but he has no training in airflow dynamics. If two masks reduce airflow and require greater muscular effort to breathe, there will be inflow and outflow leakage at weaker points, such as the masks borders. The extra effort to expel air from the lungs might cause lung damage or decrease the amount of air expelled from the lungs and increase CO2/ decrease O2 blood levels. Fauci wants prior research and proof when others suggest ideas, but not for his own ideas. His public comment on two masks shows he is making pronouncements without any scientific basis or supportive research. There is also a rebound or Jevons Effect. As people feel safer with two masks than with one mask, some will get closer to other people than they would with one mask and reduce the benefit of social distancing. Two masks may cause an increase in the infection rate. Especially, since research shows social distancing has a greater effect on reducing infections than mask wearing. Science requires repeated experimentation to prove or disprove common sense ideas. Fauci has no research to support is two mask notion.

Comment Reference Audio Files Include Classical Music (Score 1) 46

Over the years, classical music has been lifted and used in recorded popular songs by successful bands, musicians, singers and song writers. The reference database of audio files submitted by record companies and performing rights societies to train the AI is likely corrupted with public domain classical music. Of course, an AI trained on classical music will find classical music.

Comment Epidemiological Excess Deaths (Score 1) 447

The coronavirus may be a substitution of one cause of death of older, severely ill people for another cause on a death certificate. Stopping the virus might not decrease the mortality rate of the most likely affected individuals. So far, most of the people dying from the coronavirus are older, have multiple serious health problems and more likely male. On average, an 85 year old male has almost a 10 percent one year mortality rate, a 10 percent chance of dying in one year when not adjusted for the health of the individual, A 90 year old male has a 16 percent chance of dying in one year. Individuals who have multiple serious health problems have much higher mortality rates than the above average actuarial numbers. The important unanswered question about the coronavirus is whether the virus is increasing the mortality rate of severely ill older people? Whether the virus is causing excess deaths in epidemiology terms? If someone is so ill that they would have likely died from heart failure, flu, pneumonia or some other non Covid-19 cause in the next few weeks, dying from the coronavirus and listing it as the cause of death is misleading. It gives the public the false impression that but for the coronavirus the individual would have an extended life and not have died from other causes around the same time. If stopping the virus does not increase the expected life of infected ill individuals, is it worth shutting down the economy?

Comment It's Complicated (Score 1) 155

Strong wildfires push particulates and aerosols into the upper atmosphere that reflect sunlight and have cooling effect. Increased carbon dioxide into atmosphere causes more warming. New grass, shrubs and other ground level growth until it matures is a lighter color and reflects sunlight more. After the fire, ground level deadwood decomposes for years and can release a lot of carbon dioxide. New tree growth quickly reduces atmospheric carbon dioxide more than old trees until a natural reoccurring wildfire happens in that forest again. A change in land use from from forest to agriculture, as happens in rain forests, increases solar radiation reflection w/o a future wildfire in that area and has a cooling effect. Increased upper atmosphere black soot increases upper air warming and settles on and darkens glaciers and increases melting. Forest wildfires are a naturally occurring event for as long as forests have existed. One forest fire in one country is not the issue. The issue is whether total global forest wildfire carbon dioxide output is increasing or decreasing, whether over decades, the CO2 wildfire output, including remaining decomposing deadwood CO2, is increasing or decreasing and whether solar radiation reflection increases enough to have a climate change cooling effect instead of warming. Tough to model and no definitive climate change conclusion as yet.

Comment Glass Houses: Movies Have Lied For Years (Score 1) 194

Movies and documentaries have lied for years. Movies and documentaries about history, historical periods, science, medicine and social sciences, have distorted, exaggerated and changed facts, added fictional characters, removed important characters, and changed causes, endings and results. Realistic societal progress is often ignored to make every future look dystopian. Movies make every government official look bad. They make every corporation and capitalism evil. Socialism becomes utopia. Movies view starvation, sterilization, mass imprisonment, dictatorships and wars as the only logical outcome for society. Movies have shaped public opinion for years and still do. They make a movie about the harm to a few adorable children or cute pets and make us think the world is cruel or is ending, except for that one brave individual. Social media is just an add on to movie propaganda. Mass media companies are losing their propaganda power over the public and are fighting the new power brokers, social media, for control of the public's mind.

Comment OMG: Another Pareto Distribution News Story (Score 1) 80

Once again the Pareto exponential distribution, commonly referred to as the 20-80 rule, is a topic of concern in the statistics and math illiterate news media. The real world is comprised of many events that follow an exponential distribution where a few produce much. So what! Get used to it. Like the normal or binomial distribution, many real world events follow an exponential distribution. If we all had learned that many events are created by a few, we would stop being surprised when someone reveals it and we would see many fewer meaningless news stories. Just accept and assume that a few (10, 20 ,30 percent) are responsible for many (70, 80, 90 percent) things in the world. A small percentage of customers account for most of a store's sales. A small percentage of drivers account for most auto accidents. A small percentage of websites account for most website visits. A small percentage of countries account for most of the world's GDP, etc.,etc., etc.

Comment Aren't the UFOs screenshots? (Score 1) 197

Aren't the UFO pilot observations and videos released indirect images produced by electronic surveillance equipment in the airplanes, such as radar and infrared imaging devices, etc.? The UFOs could be false images produced by software or by hardware glitches, or hot, cold or density anomalies in the upper atmosphere.

Comment Scores have different meaning for different groups (Score 1) 203

Credit scores are relative scores and good predictors of overall loan default of a higher versus a lower score. A similar score, however, predicts a different default rate within different demographic groups, according to a 2007 study. In August 2007, The Federal Reserve submitted a report of a review of 301,500 anonymous individual credit reports to Congress, "Report to the Congress on Credit Scoring and Its Effects on the Availability and Affordability of Credit." https://www.federalreserve.gov... The study concluded at Summary pages S-4, S-5: "The analysis also finds that some groups perform worse (experience higher rates of serious delinquency) on their credit accounts, on average, than would be predicted by the performance of individuals in the broader population with similar credit scores. For example, on average, blacks perform worse than other racial and ethnic groups with similar credit scores. Similarly, single individuals and those residing in predominantly black or low-income census tracts perform worse on their loans than do their complementary demographic groups with similar credit scores. In contrast, the loan performance of Asians, married individuals, foreign-born individuals (particularly, recent immigrants), and those residing in higher-income census tracts was better than the performance predicted by their credit scores. The results hold after controlling for the other personal demographics of these individuals and for an estimate of the individuals’ incomes and locations; other factors that could be important, such as differences in employment experience, were not available." In the past, lenders could interpret credit scores based on actual historical performance and adjust the interest rate and loan approval rate. That behavior is now considered discriminatory and similar credit scores among different defaulting rate groups must be treated equally and have the same denial rate and interest rate.

Comment Too many studies (Score 1) 184

We have too many researchers doing too many studies about the same topic and we incorrectly view each study as a separate event. Without quantification of the number of unpublished, published, and significant studies on a given topic, an individual study's relevance is unknown. If 200 separate researchers did 50 studies each (or 2000 did 5 studies) for a total of 10,000 studies, at .05 p, we could expect 500 false positives. When a study is published without knowing the universe of all studies on that topic, we do not know if any report of a significance level is really significant. Add that there is a bias to report and document positive over negative results. There is also data mining, where an existing database is used to search for any relationship among the historical variables at a p value and then report that relationship. With a large universe of studies and with data mining of historical data, an individual studies significance level is unknown and reproducible results is very low. Combining the data of published studies does not help, since their is a bias is what is reported and published.

Comment Looking at the wrong side of hiring (Score 1) 201

The relevance of LinkedIn should be looked at from the employer's point of view. If employers search LinkedIn for candidates, and interview some, then the service is useful and job searchers should post resumes. For every LinkedIn filled job opening there will always be many more candidates that are passed over for interviews and job offers than get the job and that will make LinkedIn seem unnecessary for any specific candidate who was not interviewed based on a LinkedIn search or who gets a job through another method.

Comment Total Carbon Footprint (Score 1) 399

The only number that matters is total world output of carbon emissions. Countries can manipulate their carbon output to look clean through increasing imports. China produces a lot of carbon emissions but it is the largest exporter in the world. Despite the claims by many countries of switching to clean energy, many countries are also exporting their carbon output by importing high carbon output products. Germany for example, imports more than a quarter of its GDP. 10 percent of those imports come from China and 20 percent come from Asia. Germany's major imports from China are products with a high carbon output in manufacturing, such as heavy machinery, autos and auto parts. Germany also imports its electricity from other EU countries. Unless one accounts for the carbon emissions produced by imports, a focus solely on a country's measure of it own carbon emissions gives a false reading. Countries are also responsible for the carbon emissions produced by their imports. The US imports about 10 percent of its GDP. It is much more a closed economy than most other major developed countries. The US reduction in carbon emissions is a real number since its reduction is due to changes in manufacturing and energy production processes within the US and not through a switch to high carbon emission imports. Germany's switch to renewable energy has increased energy cost in Germany and made energy intensive (high carbon emission) products less competitive with imports. Importing a high carbon emission product that once was made domestically is not a true reduction in carbon emissions. The only change that occurred is the location of the carbon output.

Comment Everything New Is Old (Score 1) 99

In 1957, Vance Packard wrote The Hidden Persuaders about the use of psychological tricks to affect consumer and voter decision making and judgment. It was on NY Times Best Sellers list for a year. The New Yorker magazine's blurb about the book said, "A brisk, authoritative and frightening report on how manufacturers, fundraisers and politicians are attempting to turn the American mind into a kind of catatonic dough that will buy, give or vote at their command." In the past, the concern was TV and radio advertising. Now it is social media. Other than a change in the way information is transmitted, what is new? Manipulation and propaganda to influence people's decisionmaking and voting are probably as old as mankind and it will continue forever.

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