Was at a conservative think tank in DC today. Coincidently, forum was on Taiwan's (Republic of China ROC), dealings with PRC (Mainland, Communist China). Lots of security stuff. One guy (who really know his s**t and had seen lots of Chinese goodies) resembled Gust Avrakotos in Charlie Wilson's war (played by Philip Seymour Hoffman).
No one mentioned Japan and the manufacturing crash in high-value technical devices. So I emailed one guy who was on the panel a couple of questions afterward: "2. What effects in the next year can you see regarding the developing crisis in Japan. In Silicon Valley, manufacturers are encountering shortages in high-value tech products. Auto manufactures here are undergoing supply bottlenecks. And there is the station of Japan as an ally of the U.S. - and one who has confronted China on issues such as fishing in disputed Island locations. And how probable is it that China will jump in and replace the damaged Japanese suppliers and steal the markets?"
his reply: "2. China is not yet in a position to produce many of the hi-tech components that Japan currently supplies to the market – Chinese firms only assemble already made hi-tech components. Taiwan is actually quite well positioned to take market share from Japanese firms. Many international firms will be reluctant to change designs and base production of their hi-tech components in the mainland because of the on-going problems of R&D theft and would much prefer to set up hi-tech production in countries like Taiwan. China would not be the first choice for many of these firms.""
now for the ethically PC... I asked: "I mulled about something here so here goes. "Taiwan is actually quite well positioned to take market share from Japanese firms. " is, I think, wonderfully nuanced as an answer to my query on Japan's present travails. Is it, in your opinion, in the Taiwanese nature to do so (take market share from Japan at this time)? I am not asking you if you think they WILL do it, just if it is an option that is not out of the question for more than one Taiwanese high-tech manufacturing enterprise?"
his reply: "I think the decision will be made as much by the international firm as the Taiwanese one. But if they need to produce a market ready product, then international firms will do what they have to do. "
Obviously, many things are at work here...and Japan will be eating it for some time. Immediately, I mean YESTERDAY companies need to nail down safe, accessible, precision manufacturing capacity and facilities. Really, Taiwan is the only place that comes close to Japan.
So I go to work on my blog of the forum and slashdot comes in - I couldn't make this up. No kid gloves allowed.