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Comment Re:\o/ (Score 1) 17

They will deliver some the data centers and hardware and then those big 3 and a few others will be stuck making payments on the bonds for hardware and data centers that they may not have any significant customers and they hopefully are profitable enough that they won't go out of business getting stuck holding the bag.

The people making the purchases seem be purchasing the capacity because they think the magical AI is going to make them lots of money, if it does not (and that seems pretty likely that it is going to fall short of what they are spending) then there are going to be a lot of bond holders holding worthless paper at multiple levels.

Comment Buying with funny money (Score 1) 202

SpaceX is not public, it only has an estimated value and has not IPOed yet.

So while it is big deal SpaceX's value is using funny money to buy a company whose value is also funny money.

SpaceX claims it had $16b of sales and $8b of profit, so its PE ratio is 125(at $1 trillion value) and even if they were to have the entire launch market that won't increase its sales that much. It is buying a company that has an infinite PE ratio (has not made enough revenue to even pay its loan costs, and is burning cash).

Basically 2 companies that are claimed to be large on paper based on expectations that may or may not EVER actually materialize.

Comment Re:Hand out (Score 1) 309

I have to think you are right. Anyone with slightly questionable credit will either have their card outright cancelled and/or simply have the limit massively reduced.

And the short term affects would be a sudden blip in consumer spending like you noted.;

Likely since he wants to do this, is that it is simply it polls good with his followers(who must on average have a lot of credit card debt so believe this will help them) that don't understand their credit card/line is going away the moment 10% is the limit.

Comment Re:Too big so fail (Score 1) 50

They were only "decent" then because everyone else sucked at getting a stable db. I tested 4 db in about 1990 and the other 3 worked badly. Oracle's install script had some poor assumptions but once worked around worked as a db. One of the DB got installed and kept getting "internal errors" and support says reinstall will probably fix it, so given we were evaluating it for 50+ installs that lack of understanding was unacceptable.

And unlike banks that fail and take others money with them, Oracle failing simply gets their assets (the db, the cloud and other things) sold to someone else, assuming the other possible buyer's don't also go all in on borrowing for AI and lose their shirts also.

Comment Re:Good products (Score 4, Insightful) 105

It seems like double/triple dipping.

Cross license with Intel/AMD and get paid per cpu sold.

Cross License with Microsoft and get paid per windows copy sold for the software decode.

And criss license with all of the OEM hardware makers and get paid yet again for each machine sold that can decode in hw.

Great for Nokia to double and triple dip and get paid 3 times for the exact same users. This really indicates we have a royally screwed up patent system.

Comment Re:Good products (Score 2) 105

What I don't understand about all of the half-assed patent systems, is how they are allowed to sue HP and/or Amazon when the actual violator is Intel and/or AMD including the features in the graphics chip. And I would strongly suspect that Nokia has a patent sharing agreement with both Intel/AMD and so cannot sue them, so is suing all of intel's large customers. You have to love double-dipping...

Comment Re: Case in point (Score 1) 211

Either Autocomplete on steriods or Correlation on steriods. Every useful right answer it gives is not original and simply a mis-mash of other's work. As you say, neither is a sign of any actual intelligence. But the believers say AGI is "right" around the corner. I predict it will get here the week before the Faster-Than-Light Drive goes operational, and the week after we get commercial Fusion working...

Comment Not a surprise knowing someone does not know AI (Score 5, Insightful) 29

Not a surprise they are underwater.

I have personally heard(first hand, I retired so no longer work there) multiple people in the company(including at least one of the CEOs and Larry) hype AI as being able to compress and store medical images at lower resolution because when you use AI superzoom to enlarge/up-scale the lower resolution compressed image it can recreate the "original" detail and can be used for diagnoses.

Given they think AI is magic and they seem to believe Hollywood superzoom exists they will pay anything for that unobtainium, that is not ever going to be possible to ever do (under ANY conditions) because it for any given 4 pixels you attempt to zoom into up there are mathematically a huge number of (3x3,4x4) solutions and no way to determine which solution was/is true.

Comment Re:What? (Score 2) 28

Linux MD raid had a spat of random issues were it appeared that multiple disks without a partition suddenly got partitioned (on a boot). And at least some of those people NEVER dual booted (so no windows). The leading theory was that a bios/EFI update decided that disks that it did not identify as having data needed to get "fixed" and have a GPT partition table on it. There were 3-4 different people that reported this in a 2-3 month window with none since then, with a wide variety of controllers, but a number of them started after firmware updates or motherboard replacements/upgrades. And I know enough "smart" developers that love to write code to "fix" things that they "know" are wrong and simply don't understand. I have also seen a software update "fix" (ie change) the partitioning because they decided the old way was wrong and did not consider there might be data on it.

Comment Re:Couple of possibilities (Score 1) 70

In the recent past no one tracked most of these conditions that people get in old age. Alzheimers was first named in 1901. And a lot of people died young enough from various untreated common bacterial infections to reduce the size of the population old enough to even get Alzheimer's. Historical data is fairly limited, the data we have is at best poor to non-existent (not tracked, health so poor as to make what data that existed useless to compare), and for the most part we only even have useful data from that last 70 years ( before that general health of most of the population was generally so poor that a significant number of 18-25 year olds were not healthy enough to join the military in wwi, 11% had VD, 10% had TB, and there were other issues that disqualified).

Most of the "new" diseases we currently find are simply noticing some disease that was always there but our data was not good enough to identify it.

Ie like Zika. It was first identified in 1947, and at the time studies (in the area were it was found) identified that 6% of the population had anti-bodies for it, so no telling how long Zika had been around, and Yellow Fever and other similar tropical infections that were more lethal were bigger issues that would have made looking for Zika and other less lethal diseases not a priority.

So it is likely that Alzheimer's was always a problem but not really identified as anything other than one of the symptoms of "old age".

Comment Re:I'm leaning to prefer bubble, you? (Score 3, Insightful) 22

A bubble/hangover from all the money wasted on AI (basically a giant correlation engine) seems more likely than the Singularity.

I don't see any evidence that current AI is much more than the original Eliza program from the 60's on steroids.

And AI is making people stupid because they believe they can rely on it even though any answer it provides is just an answer provided by some other person someplace on the web. At best it is a better search engine except for the fact that it fails to provide a right answer often enough to make is useless.

Comment Re:Inundated (Score 2) 68

They seem to be asking for a survey to make everyone "FEEL" better (after support calls and the like), but based on nothing changing and no responses I don't believe ANYONE/ANYTHING processes and/or reads any of those surveys. They surveys are just there to placate everyone.

It is similar to "your call is important to us, please stay on the line" and everytime I say to myself "if your call was important to me you would have more people to answer".

Comment Re:Other reasons (Score 5, Insightful) 68

It boggles the mind how stupid companies are (both the employers and say BANKS). They want to train people to look for spam from 3rd parties, and then they send surveys and actual critical information that they want answered using 3rd party sites.

This is probably the #1 security violation (sending and expecting employees and others) to use/answer a 3rd party site that companies do without a single thought that they are increasing their security risk by their own actions poorly though out actions.

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