Global warming is going to make things colder?
Yes, potentially. The effects of global warming on AMOC and the consequences have been explored in the scientific literature since the 1970s.
Right. Meanwhile down in the tropics they could just use the free energy from the sun to power the A/C if the heat becomes too extreme.
Because people just love being inside all the time.
If we stop growing it all collapses and it takes us all with it. Without population growth we can't take care of the older population that doesn't work anymore.
Population increase is not necessarily needed for economic growth. Indeed, in Western countries it has tended to outstrip population growth for a long time. Automation means that people are not necessarily needed for the older population so much.
There seems to be considerable dispute about the math, so like I said, citation required.
I used publicly available numbers and did the math myself- if you have a dispute, let's hear it and we'll hash it out.
Show your working, then.
Without very active management, 1 million is itself an order of magnitude greater than the presumed Kessler limit. Other countries may also wish to launch many satellites for AI or other reasons. Thus it may well be an issue. We cannot blindly assume it won't be without details of mitigations.
We're already past the Kessler limit
Kessler limit is considered to be 100,000. Current number of satellites is about 14,500, an order of magnitude lower.
Oh, I agree with you. But Starlink is a thing
Massively smaller than what is being proposed, so not relevant.
It's cheap enough that the lifecycle of a Starlink sat is 5 years before it re-enters.
Starlink volume is too small to be meaningful, so not likely to be comparable, even in aggregate.
They currently have to launch 2,000 of them a year just to keep the constellation at current levels.
I think you are confusing expansion with maintenance as it's 2,300 to do both at present. But if it was 2000 to maintain levels that would mean 200,000 a year to maintain a million So that's TWO orders of magnitude greater. Is that viable? Bear in mind each launch also (each has several satellites) contributes to climate change. None of this is looking, on the face of it, very sustainable.
When you get right down to it, for billion dollar a year businesses, putting up shit-tons of satellites isn't actually that damn expensive at all.
The issue is comparison costs, not total cost. A billion a year business doesn't stay that way by finding the most expensive way to do things. So I'd want to see a full breakdown of the costs.
It's more efficient to move heat in space, power wise.
You are limited to radiation. Whilst the temperature differential is great, conduction and removal by a working fluid can remove a very large amount of heat. This is why, say, at a blacksmith's a redhot item, which will be reliant on radiative and convection will take so much longer to cool down than quenching in water. Or why (using another example), cooling a machine gun with water allows greater sustained fire unless a very heavy barrel is used, and even then when it gets hot, air-cooling is insufficient. And the difference between a working piece in a blacksmiths at 500C is greater differential from the ambient (15C) than you are likely to get between the radiative elements in space compared to the surroundings (~3K). As such, you need to ensure sufficient cooling vanes or other devices, or take away heat internally with a working fluid and additionally increase its temperature (e.g., compress, and then expand later) to enhance the temperature differential. This takes mass which you have to also launch. Sure, it is possible to put a million satellites up there, but is it actually cost effective, especially given the rate of reduction in cost of renewables and batteries?
As mentioned, the ISS uses about 500w/18kW. A standard Earth-bound installation uses around 500w/1kW.
Is the ISS a small satellite? Is the proposal for 1million ISS? Seems unlikely. If so, then why compare to the ISS?
People seem to be concerned about minerals for EVs yet seem to be unconcerned about having them deposited into the upper atmosphere where there is even less chance of recovery for reuse.
Maybe I need to delve more into the math but I think common sense suggests that improving power generation on earth is likely to be rather easier and more cost effective, and that cost, with renewables at least, is reducing rapidly. And maybe the other effort could be on improving efficiency of the models and code surrounding them - a 1% improvement would mean many fewer powerplants required worldwide.
Why?
Increased launch mass by a significant degree.
Citation required
Do the math. Look at the cooling system on the ISS, look at its mass, scale.
There seems to be considerable dispute about the math, so like I said, citation required.
and if there are 1 million satellites in LEO, that's a real issue.
Why? Satellites in LEO are separated by tens to hundreds of miles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Without very active management, 1 million is itself an order of magnitude greater than the presumed Kessler limit. Other countries may also wish to launch many satellites for AI or other reasons. Thus it may well be an issue. We cannot blindly assume it won't be without details of mitigations.
Space is like, really fucking big.
What is the lifecycle given the AI tech in the satellites?
Who knows. At current launch costs, what makes you think we care?
I am not sure devil-may-care is a great idea with respect to LEO.
Are you familiar with the current StarLink model? It's wild what you can do with cheap lift capacity.
I am talking about lifecycle management. Cheap in the context of satellites is not actually very cheap, though, if you are bringing that up.
Those things don't station keep. There's just a fucking constant rain of them coming down and going up.
Kessler. Not station keeping and debris is an issue.
Good question- but some things going against you for terrestrial solutions: Cost of power. Cost in power of cooling.
And the comparison is what?
In space, that power is free after initial capital investment.
Ditto with solar and batteries.
As for the cooling? A fraction of the terrestrial power cost.
Citation required.
Swap read error. You lose your mind.