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Comment Re:Science versus politics (Score 2) 279

Point 1: Scott Adams pointed out that when asked the question "how much of global warming is caused by humans, and how much is natural" in debates and televised interviews, no scientist had an answer.

The answer is 50-70% according to this latest research.

Don't confuse the effects on Arctic ice with global warming. This research is saying that 50-70% of the ice melt is caused by the temperature increase from global warming. Our current best estimate is that 100% of global warming is caused by human activity.

Comment Re:Science versus politics (Score 4, Insightful) 279

Point 1: Scott Adams pointed out that when asked the question "how much of global warming is caused by humans, and how much is natural" in debates and televised interviews, no scientist had an answer.

Getting your climate science from people yelling at each other on TV (or Scott Adams for that matter) is a bad idea.

From IPCC AR5, back in 2013: It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period.

Comment Re:Is it good for a thousand cycles? (Score 2) 306

Answered in TFA:

The UT Austin battery formulation also allows for a greater number of charging and discharging cycles, which equates to longer-lasting batteries, as well as a faster rate of recharge (minutes rather than hours).... The use of an alkali-metal anode (lithium, sodium or potassium) — which isn’t possible with conventional batteries — increases the energy density of a cathode and delivers a long cycle life. In experiments, the researchers’ cells have demonstrated more than 1,200 cycles with low cell resistance.

Comment TFS is not very good (Score 1) 93

The "snake oil" quote is about mental health apps, not physical health trackers.

Personally I have tried and discarded Google Fit, but Strava is fantastic and has helped me lose huge amounts of weight and get fitter than I have ever been. For me it succeeds because it's much better at gamifying fitness and making it a little competitive, without having to front up to an actual race.

Comment Re:Retribution (Score 1) 405

Well the data set in question (ERSST) is an anomaly product, not an absolute product. Here, Zeke Hausfather explains they buoys issue really well: https://andthentheresphysics.w...

The baseline is indeed the average temperature for a pre-defined interval. However, it is the average for the dataset being considered. In other words, you produce the baseline average after you’ve done the adjustment. The anomalies are then relative to that baseline. Therefore, it doesn’t matter if you shift the buoys up to the ships, or the ships down to the buoys. Once you’ve done the shift, you then calculate the average for the pre-defined interval and present your data as anomalies relative to that baseline.

Comment Re:Retribution (Score 1) 405

Do you understand what an "anomaly product" is? If you apply a consistent adjustment across the whole series, the mean temperature changes to match across the whole series so the anomaly from the mean, and the trend of that anomaly, is the same regardless of the direction of the adjustment. So your claim that this biases the anomaly higher is false, which is confirmed by the HadSST3 test run and the buoy-only series I linked to earlier.

Comment Re:Retribution (Score 2) 405

The direction of the adjustment makes no difference to the trend (this has been tested by running it both ways) and the new NOAA series puts 7x more weight on the Argo buoy data where available. It's been further tested by constructing an unadjusted buoy-only record which shows the same trend (see https://skepticalscience.com/b...).

Comment Re:Total Capacity (Score 4, Interesting) 192

They're playing some tricks with the numbers to get capacity factors close to 0.3, which is physically impossible unless all your PV panels are super-high efficiency and track the sun. But this isn't the sort of thing you can just cover up. It's trivial to calculate the actual capacity factor for PV solar:

  • Installed peak capacity at the end of 2014 and 2015 was 18,173 MW and 25,459 MW respectively. So figure average capacity for 2015 was (25459 + 18173)/2 = 21,816 MW.
  • PV solar generation for 2015 was 23,232 GWh.
  • There are 8766 hours in a year (factoring in leap years).
  • (23232 GWh) / (21.816 GW * 8766 hours) = 0.121 capacity factor.

Yeah sure, there's a conspiracy to cover up the real numbers. Or, you know, you might have botched your calculations. You took the solar output from large utilities only and divided it by the total solar capacity including distributed generation.

Solar capacity factors of >25% are relatively easy in the sun belt and can go as high as 36% with tracking and a high panel-to-inverter ratio (Lawrence Berkely study, 2014 figures).

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