Re:there's a big piece you're missing... (Score 1)

Fine except Monty doesn't always offer a second chance (go watch the re-runs), nor does he always reveal an empty doot - (often it merely an offer to abort to a different prize). In fact, how he makes this decision drastically alters the problem. Suppose he only offered a second guess when he knows you've picked the winner. You'd be a loser because of the bogus assumptions you've made about how the game is played!