Comment Super Tuesday Republican Predictions (w/formatting (Score 1) 1481
Second posting -- first one, I forgot to use plain text formatting. Sorry about that.
I've seen a lot of good analysis of the Democratic Super Tuesday race thus far, but haven't really seen anything comprehensive on the Republican side. So, I decided to write one myself. I suppose most people are largely ignoring it, because the Democratic race is far more exciting right now with McCain being all but guaranteed of winning the nomination. But, let's see if that's really the case...
The delegate count as of today sits at the following:
McCain - 97
Romney - 92
Huckabee - 29
Paul - 6
(note, this includes the Maine caucuses, which Romney won over the weekend)
So, there are 21 states that will be competing on Super Tuesday. Let's start with the WTA (Winner Take All) states. These are: Missouri, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Utah, and W. Virginia. Arkansas could be winner take all if someone wins greater than 50% of the vote, but I don't see that happening with Huckabee, so we assume it's not WTA.
Of these 10 states, 3 of them are caucuses, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. Montana (25 delegates) and North Dakota (26 delegates) look to be firmly in Romney's camp. More on West Virginia later.
Of the other 7 WTA states, Romney will win Utah (36 delegates), and McCain will win New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52), Arizona (53), and Connecticut (30).
This leaves 3 states, Missouri (58), Delaware (18), and W. Virginia (Weird delegate system. They will hand out 18 delegates and then another 12 in a May 13th primary), which are very close. Missouri is going to be a tough one to call. Most of the latest polls show McCain with a slight advantage (3-5%), but both Romney and Huckabee are polling quite high. If enough conservatives move from Huckabee to Romney, Romney could be a surprise here. I'm going to keep this in the Too Close to Call column for now though. Delaware has only a single poll conducted in the last 3 months, and it has McCain with a 6 point lead over Romney with 10% unsure. I feel a little more comfortable giving this one to McCain, since Huckabee is only polling at 7%. Lastly, West Virginia, is a big unknown. I can't find a single poll for the state within the last year. Because it's a Caucus state, and caucus states tend to benefit those with the most money and organization, I'm going to give it to Romney. But, I really don't know about this one.
So, after the 10 Winner Take All States, the count for WTA states would be as follows.
McCain: 254 (New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware)
Romney: 87 (Montana, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia)
Huckabee/Paul: 0
Too Close Too Call: Missouri (58 delegates)
Now, we get into the "fun" states. Those that give proportional delegates based on percentage of vote. Unfortunately, the process is frustratingly different from state to state. So, I'm going to use a general rule of thumb, as follows, which will hopefully average out. The state winner gets all At-Large Delegates, State Party Delegates, and Bonus Delegates. The District Level Delegates are awarded to each candidate as a percentage of their total votes. So, for example, in California the state winner gets 14 delegates (10+3+1) and the other 159 delegates are split based on percentage. So, if McCain wins 50% of the vote, he'd get an additional 80 delegates. Romney with 25% would get an additional 40 delegates, etc... It's a little more complex than this, but for simplicities sake, I'm going to do it this way.
I'll go in alphabetical order...
Alabama (48) - 21 delegates are awarded by district and 27 to the winner of the state. McCain has a strong lead and should win this state, provided there isn't a max exodus from the Huckabee camp to Romney. I think there will be some, but not enough. McCain gets 27 for winning + 9 proportionally. Romney gets 6 and Huckabee gets 6.
Alaska (29) - Caucus state with 26 going to the winner and 3 being split to winners of districts. Ron Paul looks strong in this state, but I think ultimately Romney wins because other than Paul he's the only candidate putting any effort there. And, caucus states tend to benefit most by spending and organization. Romney gets 26 + 1 proportional. Paul gets 1 and McCain gets 1. No polls exist for this state, so this could be a big surprise.
Arkansas (34) - 22 Delegates to winner + 12 proportionally. Huckabee will win big, but I don't think he gets 50% to win all the delegates. He'll win the 22, plus probably another 6. Say, McCain wins 4, and Romney 2. Not a lot of recent polls on this state to predict where McCain and Romney come in however.
California (173) - 14 Delegates to winner, 159 proportional. This ones really too close to call, but since such a small percentage goes to the winner, I think we can somewhat closely predict where things come in. Most recent polls have it neck-and-neck between McCain and Romney. However, the latest Reuters poll has Romney with +8. I think Romney wins, but a lot more closely than this. He picks up the 14 winner delegates. Proportionally, I think Romney picks up 74, McCain picks up 70, Huckabee 10, and Paul 5
Colorado (46) - 25 to winner, 21 proportional. A closed caucus state benefits Romney who's leading by 20% in the polls. He wins handily and picks up the 25, plus another 12 proportionally. McCain gets 6, and Huckabee 3.
Georgia (72) - 33 to win, plus 39 WTA by district. Extremely close right now. I'm moving this to Too Close To Call, which I'll cover at the bottom.
Illinois (70) - 13 to win, plus 57 by district. Open primary state gives McCain a big advantage. He's polling around 35-40% with Romney at 20-25% and Huckabee at 15% and Paul at 10%. McCain should win the 13 delegates, but the proportional delegates should be split a bit more evenly. Say, McCain gets 28, Romney 18, Huckabee 7, Paul 4.
Massachusetts (43) - 13 to win, 30 by district. Romney will win big and big up the 13 delegates and will get a good share of the district delegates. 20 to Romney, 10 to McCain.
Minnesota (41) - 17 to win, 24 by district. No recent polls, but being an open caucus in a liberal state, I think McCain wins and picks up the 17. He'll get another 14 district, Romney 6, Huckabee 4. I was only able to find one poll for this state, so this is a bit of a guess.
Oklahoma (41) - 26 to win, 15 by district. McCain appears to be the clear-cut winner here getting the 26 delegates. Huckabee could come in second, but will probably finish a close third. Figure 8 to McCain, 4 to Romney, 3 to Huckabee.
Tennessee (55) - Winner gets 28 if 50% of the vote. Otherwise, it's proportional. I assume the winner won't get 50%, so assume the entire state is proportional. This is a 3-way horse race, but let's say McCain pulls it out and gets 20, Romney, 16, Huckabee 14, Paul 5
So, I think we can accurately predict the delegate count for most states, because for many of the really close states, the delegates are proportional (California for example). The only exceptions are Georgia with 72 and Missouri with 58. So, ignoring these two states we have the following results:
Alabama (48) - McCain 26, Romney 6, Huckabee 6
Alaska (29) - Romney 27, McCain 1, Paul 1
Arkansas (34) - Huckabee 28, McCain 4, Romney 2
California (173) - Romney 88, McCain 70, Huckabee 10, Paul 5
Colorado (46) - Romney 37, McCain 6, Huckabee 3
Georgia (72) - Too Close to Call
Illinois (70) - McCain 41, Romney 18, Huckabee 7, Paul 4
Massachusetts (43) - Romney 33, McCain 10
Minnesota (41) - McCain 31, Romney 6, Huckabee 4
Oklahoma (41) - McCain 34, Romney 4, Huckabee 3
Tenessee (55) - McCain 20, Romney 16, Huckabee 14,Paul 5
So, again without counting Georgia and Tennessee, the delegate totals for the other 19 states would be the following for Super Tuesday (with totals in parenthesis):
McCain: 497 Delegates (594 total)
Romney: 324 Delegates (416 total)
Huckabee: 47 Delegates (76 total)
Paul: 15 Delegates (21 total)
So, obviously the 58 delegates in WTA Missouri will make a huge difference. In Georgia, I think we can safely say that the 39 district delegates will be fairly evenly split, so no real advantage there. However the other 33 goes to the winner, so between the two states, there is a 91 delegate swing possible, which could make the difference between Romney staying in and getting out.
Other than these two, and obviously California, which will be a huge PR boost if not delegate boost, the other ones I'll be keeping a close eye on, are Alaska (I want to see if Ron Paul can pull this one off), Tennessee (not a big delegate swing to the winner, but it will be an interesting bellweather), Delaware, West Virginia, Minnesota, and Illinois.
-Jeff
I've seen a lot of good analysis of the Democratic Super Tuesday race thus far, but haven't really seen anything comprehensive on the Republican side. So, I decided to write one myself. I suppose most people are largely ignoring it, because the Democratic race is far more exciting right now with McCain being all but guaranteed of winning the nomination. But, let's see if that's really the case...
The delegate count as of today sits at the following:
McCain - 97
Romney - 92
Huckabee - 29
Paul - 6
(note, this includes the Maine caucuses, which Romney won over the weekend)
So, there are 21 states that will be competing on Super Tuesday. Let's start with the WTA (Winner Take All) states. These are: Missouri, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Utah, and W. Virginia. Arkansas could be winner take all if someone wins greater than 50% of the vote, but I don't see that happening with Huckabee, so we assume it's not WTA.
Of these 10 states, 3 of them are caucuses, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia. Montana (25 delegates) and North Dakota (26 delegates) look to be firmly in Romney's camp. More on West Virginia later.
Of the other 7 WTA states, Romney will win Utah (36 delegates), and McCain will win New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52), Arizona (53), and Connecticut (30).
This leaves 3 states, Missouri (58), Delaware (18), and W. Virginia (Weird delegate system. They will hand out 18 delegates and then another 12 in a May 13th primary), which are very close. Missouri is going to be a tough one to call. Most of the latest polls show McCain with a slight advantage (3-5%), but both Romney and Huckabee are polling quite high. If enough conservatives move from Huckabee to Romney, Romney could be a surprise here. I'm going to keep this in the Too Close to Call column for now though. Delaware has only a single poll conducted in the last 3 months, and it has McCain with a 6 point lead over Romney with 10% unsure. I feel a little more comfortable giving this one to McCain, since Huckabee is only polling at 7%. Lastly, West Virginia, is a big unknown. I can't find a single poll for the state within the last year. Because it's a Caucus state, and caucus states tend to benefit those with the most money and organization, I'm going to give it to Romney. But, I really don't know about this one.
So, after the 10 Winner Take All States, the count for WTA states would be as follows.
McCain: 254 (New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware)
Romney: 87 (Montana, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia)
Huckabee/Paul: 0
Too Close Too Call: Missouri (58 delegates)
Now, we get into the "fun" states. Those that give proportional delegates based on percentage of vote. Unfortunately, the process is frustratingly different from state to state. So, I'm going to use a general rule of thumb, as follows, which will hopefully average out. The state winner gets all At-Large Delegates, State Party Delegates, and Bonus Delegates. The District Level Delegates are awarded to each candidate as a percentage of their total votes. So, for example, in California the state winner gets 14 delegates (10+3+1) and the other 159 delegates are split based on percentage. So, if McCain wins 50% of the vote, he'd get an additional 80 delegates. Romney with 25% would get an additional 40 delegates, etc... It's a little more complex than this, but for simplicities sake, I'm going to do it this way.
I'll go in alphabetical order...
Alabama (48) - 21 delegates are awarded by district and 27 to the winner of the state. McCain has a strong lead and should win this state, provided there isn't a max exodus from the Huckabee camp to Romney. I think there will be some, but not enough. McCain gets 27 for winning + 9 proportionally. Romney gets 6 and Huckabee gets 6.
Alaska (29) - Caucus state with 26 going to the winner and 3 being split to winners of districts. Ron Paul looks strong in this state, but I think ultimately Romney wins because other than Paul he's the only candidate putting any effort there. And, caucus states tend to benefit most by spending and organization. Romney gets 26 + 1 proportional. Paul gets 1 and McCain gets 1. No polls exist for this state, so this could be a big surprise.
Arkansas (34) - 22 Delegates to winner + 12 proportionally. Huckabee will win big, but I don't think he gets 50% to win all the delegates. He'll win the 22, plus probably another 6. Say, McCain wins 4, and Romney 2. Not a lot of recent polls on this state to predict where McCain and Romney come in however.
California (173) - 14 Delegates to winner, 159 proportional. This ones really too close to call, but since such a small percentage goes to the winner, I think we can somewhat closely predict where things come in. Most recent polls have it neck-and-neck between McCain and Romney. However, the latest Reuters poll has Romney with +8. I think Romney wins, but a lot more closely than this. He picks up the 14 winner delegates. Proportionally, I think Romney picks up 74, McCain picks up 70, Huckabee 10, and Paul 5
Colorado (46) - 25 to winner, 21 proportional. A closed caucus state benefits Romney who's leading by 20% in the polls. He wins handily and picks up the 25, plus another 12 proportionally. McCain gets 6, and Huckabee 3.
Georgia (72) - 33 to win, plus 39 WTA by district. Extremely close right now. I'm moving this to Too Close To Call, which I'll cover at the bottom.
Illinois (70) - 13 to win, plus 57 by district. Open primary state gives McCain a big advantage. He's polling around 35-40% with Romney at 20-25% and Huckabee at 15% and Paul at 10%. McCain should win the 13 delegates, but the proportional delegates should be split a bit more evenly. Say, McCain gets 28, Romney 18, Huckabee 7, Paul 4.
Massachusetts (43) - 13 to win, 30 by district. Romney will win big and big up the 13 delegates and will get a good share of the district delegates. 20 to Romney, 10 to McCain.
Minnesota (41) - 17 to win, 24 by district. No recent polls, but being an open caucus in a liberal state, I think McCain wins and picks up the 17. He'll get another 14 district, Romney 6, Huckabee 4. I was only able to find one poll for this state, so this is a bit of a guess.
Oklahoma (41) - 26 to win, 15 by district. McCain appears to be the clear-cut winner here getting the 26 delegates. Huckabee could come in second, but will probably finish a close third. Figure 8 to McCain, 4 to Romney, 3 to Huckabee.
Tennessee (55) - Winner gets 28 if 50% of the vote. Otherwise, it's proportional. I assume the winner won't get 50%, so assume the entire state is proportional. This is a 3-way horse race, but let's say McCain pulls it out and gets 20, Romney, 16, Huckabee 14, Paul 5
So, I think we can accurately predict the delegate count for most states, because for many of the really close states, the delegates are proportional (California for example). The only exceptions are Georgia with 72 and Missouri with 58. So, ignoring these two states we have the following results:
Alabama (48) - McCain 26, Romney 6, Huckabee 6
Alaska (29) - Romney 27, McCain 1, Paul 1
Arkansas (34) - Huckabee 28, McCain 4, Romney 2
California (173) - Romney 88, McCain 70, Huckabee 10, Paul 5
Colorado (46) - Romney 37, McCain 6, Huckabee 3
Georgia (72) - Too Close to Call
Illinois (70) - McCain 41, Romney 18, Huckabee 7, Paul 4
Massachusetts (43) - Romney 33, McCain 10
Minnesota (41) - McCain 31, Romney 6, Huckabee 4
Oklahoma (41) - McCain 34, Romney 4, Huckabee 3
Tenessee (55) - McCain 20, Romney 16, Huckabee 14,Paul 5
So, again without counting Georgia and Tennessee, the delegate totals for the other 19 states would be the following for Super Tuesday (with totals in parenthesis):
McCain: 497 Delegates (594 total)
Romney: 324 Delegates (416 total)
Huckabee: 47 Delegates (76 total)
Paul: 15 Delegates (21 total)
So, obviously the 58 delegates in WTA Missouri will make a huge difference. In Georgia, I think we can safely say that the 39 district delegates will be fairly evenly split, so no real advantage there. However the other 33 goes to the winner, so between the two states, there is a 91 delegate swing possible, which could make the difference between Romney staying in and getting out.
Other than these two, and obviously California, which will be a huge PR boost if not delegate boost, the other ones I'll be keeping a close eye on, are Alaska (I want to see if Ron Paul can pull this one off), Tennessee (not a big delegate swing to the winner, but it will be an interesting bellweather), Delaware, West Virginia, Minnesota, and Illinois.
-Jeff
