- Historically, on every jump you mention people moved from BASIC jobs to more COMPLEX jobs that society as a whole could not even afford before (entertainment for instance). That is farming to industry to services to information... etc. We are in essence escaping from the things machines can do better than US. Machines are getting better faster than humans and will surpass our ability to do ANYTHING. Whenever that happens there would be nowhere to jump to.
- Even in an optimistic scenario, transition will be painful. We should not make policy based on the fact that things could become stable eventually.
- You forget that while this process goes along, the rich will continue to gather more wealth. As in, the real estate that is NOT being automated.
- In history, as in investments, past performance is no future guarantee. What happened before tells you for sure that something can happen again. Check the logic. It does not necessarily predict what will happen. As you might have noticed, history has been full of surprises, and we are indeed in the frontier of very disruptive technology.
The important thing is this: do we want to be prepared for the possible changes or just go blindly ahead believing we are safe. Hint: our choice is not going well for global warming at least.