leviramsey's Journal: Week 3 Football Picks

These are my projections for the upcoming week of competition in the National Football League. Point spreads are not taken into account, nor are over/unders

• New Orleans @ Chicago: NO by 10
• NY Jets @ Miami: MIA by 10
• Carolina @ Minnesota: CAR by 16
• Kansas City @ New England: NE by 18
• Dallas @ Philadelphia: PHI by 3
• Cleveland @ Tennessee: TEN by 7
• Indianapolis @ Houston: HOU by 2
• San Diego @ Arizona: SD by 20
• Buffalo @ Denver: DEN by 15
• Green Bay @ Detroit: GB by 10
• Seattle @ NY Giants: NYG by 9
• Washington @ San Francisco: WSH by 1
• Cincinnati @ Atlanta: CIN by 1
• St. Louis @ Tampa Bay: TB by 10

I expect the AFC to dominate this season. Several teams that are serious contenders in the NFC (Washington, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco, most notably) would, in all probabilty be only hanging on to the slimmest threads of playoff hopes in the AFC. I expect the real Super Bowl to be the AFC championship game.

In my book, the top 12 teams are:

• New England
• San Diego
• New Orleans
• Miami
  Denver
• Oakland
• Chicago
  Carolina
• Houston
  Philadelphia
• Tennessee
  Indianapolis

[Admittedly, I'm going based on only two games, so I have no illusions that these rankings could change dramatically]

Too much credit...

[heliocentric]

I think you give Dallas too much credit for the Eagles to win by only 3. Sure, the last one was a blow out, but Dallas isn't the best like they were a few years ago. Given the deep rivalry I don't see the Eagles slowing down even as much as they did in the last blowout.

Also, I know there is no great go-to guy in GB, but I see them winning over detroit by still two touchdowns (even if the score difference is from special teams or GB's D).

And I also think you give the Jets too much credit... I think MIA will win also by atleast two TDs.

Also, the carolina game might be a tad closer... I would feel different if Matt stayed here =) On that note, does anyone know if he signed with a team then or not? He was happy he got cut when he did, but I hadn't heard about someone picking him up...

I disagree

[FortKnox]

You overrank San Diego, and Houston, and underrank Tennessee. Honestly, though, the way that things are going, I haven't been seeing straight.

Also, TB may lose to St.L... the Rams have been embarassed twice. I expect great things from them this week.


But the best news of all??
The Steelers can't lose this week!!!

Re:I disagree

[leviramsey]

The Steelers can't lose this week!!!

Unless Cowher figures out how to get a decent pass defense out of the Steelers, the Steelers will be lucky to win five games this season. At this point everybody knows how to rape the Steelers: pass the ball out of spread formations. Yes, the Steelers have a dominant run defense, but what good is that if the opposing offense is willing to throw the ball over 50 times a game?

Highly aggressive blitzing is one answer, but since the problems are in the secondary, it's exceedingly risky, especially when you consider this strategy's potential for putting Kordell Stewart in a deep hole, which is not his preferred habitat.

The one game I'd like to see would be Redskins vs. Steelers, as I have the suspicion that that would be a bloodbath. Putting a defense that can be easily beaten with a massively unbalanced passing attack up against a coach who seems to have no problem with passing on every down is a recipe for a massive Steeler defeat.

Of course, the Steelers should win at least one game against the Bungles, as the Bungles are incapable of passing 50 times a game...

Re:I disagree

[FortKnox]

Well, this is the bye week, and it is well known that the Steeler D is getting an overhaul. Pittsburgh is one place where defense is extremely big. I have no fear that they will come out and, once again, dominate defensively. Offensively, however, I don't know what they'll end up doing.

And, regardless of how well the steelers do, and how terrible the bengals do, they always find a way to win at least one game a season. Its really pathetic.

Da Bears

[Enoch]

The Bears defense is going to challenge the Saints much more than their past opponents. I would be surprised to see NO put up more than 20 points. I think the game comes down to whether or not the Bears can put up 21 points. But, saying the Saints by 10 points is ridiculous. If there is going to be a 10+ point difference, it will be because the Bear's offense kicks it in gear to match their defense.

Betting results

[leviramsey]

If you had placed bets this morning based on my picks, you would have lost $22 on the afternoon games, assuming you had followed the following betting amount algorithm: bet $11*(difference between my pick and the line as published in this morning's New York Post). I scored bigtime on the Chargers and Panthers, and lost on the Skins and Texans).