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Comment Re:PCPartPicker? Seriously? (Score 2) 46

A vendor who has more customers than product to sell them has a choice: he can either increase the price (and therefore increase his profits) or he can keep the price the same (leaving some money on the table, but potentially keeping his customers' loyalty)

We're talking about manufacturers, whose customers aren't consumers, or even retailers, but distributors who want to keep their pipelines full and their business operating. The worst thing a manufacturer can to do their customers, the thing that is most "disloyal", if you want to put it in those terms, is to be unable to fill orders. Distributors mostly don't really care what the unit price is anyway, they operate on a percentage markup basis. They care about dollar volume, so as long as that stays constant (or rises!) they're good.

So the smart thing for a manufacturer to do, and the thing that their customers (who are businesspeople who understand supply and demand, not end consumers who are confused about how economics work and throw around ridiculous concepts like "price gouging") understand and appreciate is a supplier who responds to increased demand by investing in manufacturing capacity... and it's higher prices that facilitate that.

Comment Re:Consequence culture (Score 1) 137

I hope you're right, but I'm not convinced. I see a lot of people on the right are getting tired of Trump's craziness, but I'm not sure they wouldn't be fine if it were just dialed back a bit, say to Trump 1.0 levels. In a way it may actually be a good thing that we're only a year and a quarter into a four year term. Assuming Trump doesn't keel over he's got a lot of time to convince Americans that it's a really, really bad idea to elect someone like him. Of course, he'll do a lot of actual damage along the way.

And you're absolutely right that we need the Democrats to avoid the temptation to go hard left just because they have a particularly-hated opposition... but I don't think it's at all certain that they will avoid it.

Comment Re: Anyone on the right wing want to defend this? (Score 3, Interesting) 137

I think you should take another look at the economic transition from Carter to Reagan.

You can make the argument that Reagan used left wing policies to address economic issues in some instances, in opposition to his campaign promises, or that secular trends or geopolitics hurt Carter, but you can't make the argument that Carter left a good economy for Reagan to fuck up.

You absolutely can, if you really look at what happened and when. What happened, basically, was that Nixon and Ford left Carter with an incredibly-damaged economy, and Carter fixed it, but the fixes took a while to take effect. If Carter had had a second term, those changes would have taken effect while he was in the White House, but he lost. Reagan is to be applauded mostly for not undoing what Carter did.

What did Carter do? The biggest thing he did was to appoint Paul Volcker as Fed chair. Carter knew exactly what Volcker would do, and knew that it would be painful, but believed the economists who told him that it was necessary. They were right, Carter was right to believe them, and Volcker's medicine of high interest rates got inflation under control and the economy moving in the right direction, even though it caused two recessions. Reagan was smart enough to believe the economists, too, so he reappointed Volcker and made some famous speeches, especially the 1982 one in which he told Americans we needed to "Stay the Course". He didn't, of course, mention that it was Jimmy Carter's course that we were staying, but it was.

The other big thing Carter did was massive deregulation. Reagan is also often credited for deregulation, but he did very little of it while Carter did a lot -- energy, telecoms, trucking, airlines... and more. Carter really was "The Great Deregulator", not Reagan.

None of this is because Carter was some sort of economic genius (though he was an extremely smart man). It's because he got good advisors and took good advice. This is a pretty consistent story, actually. I think there are two main reasons why the economy tends to improve during democratic administrations and decline during republican ones: (1) Democratic administrations make better use of experts and (2) Democrats are less likely to go to war (though they do tend to engage in more small-scale, humanitarian interventions). Those are just my opinions, of course, and this is an incredibly complex space.

Comment Re:Anyone on the right wing want to defend this? (Score 1) 137

Something I've noticed is lately outside of safe spaces the right wing keeps their damned mouths shut. Every so often one of them will jump in and yell TDS or something but they never actually tried to defend the actions of anyone on their side or any of their policies anymore. Mostly they either avoid conversations outside of safe spaces entirely or they lurk and mod everything they don't like down.

I'm a member of the Republican party. I have been on paper for decades, and until 2016 regularly (but not exclusively) voted Republican. In 2024 when the state GOP organization decided to switch from primaries to closed caucus meetings, I decided to get active so I could vote against Trump. I've since decided my participation as a never-Trumper is a good idea, we need more people who are fundamentally conservative (or at least small-L libertarian) to get involved to rescue the party and return it to something approaching rationality.

Anyway, that's background to explain why I just got home from the GOP county convention, which was very interesting in that during the whole three-hour meeting I never heard Trump's name mentioned even once, and there were some rather pointed allusions to how important it is that our elected leaders act with careful consideration and to promote peace. I think a lot of the GOP rank and file are getting pretty pissed off. The first break was the refusal to release the Epstein files. Minneapolis made a lot of them uncomfortable, and they found a lot of things that happened hard to defend. (CECOT should have, too, but early on they all believed Trump when he said they were gangsters.). By the time Venezuela came around, most of them had stopped trying to defend, and Iran actually generated some pretty vocal MAGA-world argument against Trump, while the soaring fuel prices just pissed off a lot of his supporters.

Comment Re:looks like a textbook 1st amendment case (Score 1) 137

Reddit is taking all the heat and standing up to the bully on the playground for them

Are they? I don't see that in the summary or the articles at all. All of the counter-filings are coming from the individual's attorneys, not from Reddit. Reddit is certainly to be applauded for not just voluntarily complying, for actually going to court, but it seems like *main* thing they have done is to notify the user in question, so the user could get lawyers from a non-profit, and it's those lawyers who are doing most of the work.

Comment Re:Laws with mission creep (Score 1) 137

The affirmative defenses from the person whose name they're trying to get suggests that that law is clearly being abused and has no relevance here, which makes me wonder if someone within the DoJ is intentionally trying to throw the case. Let's hope so!

Could be.

But it could also be the case that the DoJ's lawyers just suck. The DoJ has suffered a massive brain drain of competent attorneys since Trump took office last year. First, they explicitly fired or otherwise drove out anyone who'd gotten tapped for the massive and complex January 6th prosecutions. Then they made clear that loyalty to the president had to take precedence over ethics, legality or morality, and that they would fire any attorney who balked at doing something just because it might get them disbarred, all the while making everyone wonder if at some point the administration was going to begin flatly refusing to obey court orders (they haven't, quite, not yet).

That made all the competent and ethical lawyers leave, as well as many who might have been more ethically flexible but were too smart not to realize how badly continuing to work for the DoJ could burn them. To try to fill the massive vacancies, the DoJ then began a hiring spree, openly advertising that no real qualifications were required, beyond a law degree (any law degree) and loyalty to Trump. You can bet that they mostly got what they asked for.

If that weren't enough, the administration also took innumerable illegal actions that spawned rafts of court cases. Many of these were generated by ICE's misbehavior, but there were lots of others. Given the badly-reduced staff, quantity and quality both, this led to the remaining DoJ attorneys being massively overworked. Like Julie Le (who has since quit) who, when faced with a frustrated judge asking why Le came into his courtroom unprepared in a futile attempt to defend indefensible acts, asked the judge to please hold her in contempt and throw her in jail so she could get 24 hours of sleep.

And if all that weren't enough, the continual abuse of the court system by the administration has led to the judges near-universally deciding they have to treat the DoJ's lawyers as untrustworthy, making their lives that much less pleasant.

Given all of that, any DoJ attorney who has a shot at making a living in private practice, i.e. any of them who is any good, has left. What remains is a group of massively-overworked incompetents.

And if you wonder if the DoJ attorneys weren't always incompetents, because clearly the government doesn't pay as well as private practice... in fact, no, they weren't, because the work was considered quite prestigious. In particular, being a US Attorney was extremely prestigious. It has long been very common for talented lawyers to spend a few years in the private sector, making enough money to set them up for life, and then quit and go become a federal prosecutor. Because working for a high-priced law firm and making a lot of money makes you rich, but it doesn't carry the same sort of prestige as being a US Attorney, and then maybe a federal district or even appellate court judge.

But all that has ended. So, yeah, it could very well be that the government is making crap argument based on the wrong laws because their lawyers just suck. And also because there aren't any actually good arguments available and the lawyers are just throwing out anything so they can tell their bosses that they're pursuing the cases vigorously.

Comment Re:Consequence culture (Score 1) 137

Did that happen when Trump 1.0 ended?

No, and this is why supporters of Trump's behavior aren't worried about the consequences of these expansions of power. They see liberals' reticence for engaging in the same behavior as a weakness that can be exploited since they don't have to worry about the expansion of power being used against them. I'm not arguing that liberals should abuse these expansions of power - I'm simply explaining why Trump's supporters don't fear the effects of those powers coming back to bite them in times of liberal leadership.

Indeed. And the only way this ends well is when voters decide that they don't like government abusing power the way Trump does, regardless of which side does it, and begin hammering those who do it in every election.

Sadly, there is zero evidence that most conservative voters care at all about abuse of office or the rule of law. We're going to have to suffer a lot more pain before people start to wake up, I think. Right now, we're at the stage where most on the right just assume that it always was this way, it was just hidden. We're not going to get any change until they decide that regardless of even if power was always abused and the law was always ignored, it sucks and it has to change.

Comment Re:PCPartPicker? Seriously? (Score 1) 46

Amazon US lists it today for $394. Pretty far cry from 650. Interestingly, they list the regular price at $851.

Just convinces me it's pure profit taking.

Nah, just the law of supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. When supply exceeds demand, prices go down. In this case, increasing the supply of SSDs takes a long time because fabs are big, expensive, and take time to construct and bring into production. So, demand has gone but supply has not (much), which means prices go up. How much do they go up? They go up until enough would-be buyers decide the price is too high and they don't want the product.

If the high demand is sustained, this will also result in the suppliers in a competitive market (which flash chips are, unlike high-end CPUs which basically only TSMC can manufacture) increasing their production. That will bring the prices back down, possibly to the same equilibrium price or maybe to a lower one, thanks to increased economies of scale. That'll probably take a while, though.

Comment Re:Temporary Decrease or Permanent Decrease? (Score 1) 256

Nope. Go look up the actual data, don't just go on vibes.

Yes, in 1980 the median house was $65k and it's $430k today... but the median hourly wage in 1980 was $7 and it's $30 today (which, BTW, represents a ~10% inflation-adjusted wage increase -- wages haven't just "kept pace", they've increased). So a 1980 house cost 9,300 hours, and a 2026 house costs 14,300 hours, that's an 53% increase, but when you look at the way everything else has gotten cheaper -- food, clothing, entertainment, etc., it's really not that bad. Go do some research on what percentage of household income went to food and clothing in 1980 vs today. And the median new house size in 1980 was about 1600 square feet and lacked a lot of amenities like attached garages and central air, while the median new house today is 2100 square feet -- 30% larger! -- and that's actually down a little from a few years ago. So compared to 1980 you get 30% more house, and a nicer, better-equipped house, for 50% more money.

As for your claim that dual-income families were rare in 1980, according to the BLS, 51.8% of American households in 1980 had two incomes, and 49.6% do today. If we restrict the analysis to prime working-age families, the numbers look different (47% in 1980 and 66% today), but it was hardly "rare" in 1980 and it's far from universal today.

Comment Re:Temporary Decrease or Permanent Decrease? (Score 3, Insightful) 256

If women are delaying having children until they can better afford it, and affordability is decreasing, all that will happen is they get too old to have them before becoming financially stable enough to do so.

Whatever the issue is, the solution is the same and should be done for many other reasons: Get the cost of living down. Cheaper property, higher wages.

I don't think that would make much difference.

At least in the US, young people are wealthier than they ever have been. Housing prices are relatively higher, but not that much, not if you buy the size of house that people bought 50 years ago. If you also reduce eating out and other expenses to the levels that were normal a couple of generations ago, make kids share rooms like they did then, etc., it's perfectly feasibly to have a family on a typical income -- depending on where you live, even a single income.

What's changed isn't the economics, it's people's willingness to make the compromises needed. But the compromises are not just economic; they aren't even primarily economic. Raising children is a lot of work, takes a lot of time, and a lot of patience, and limits your freedom. I think many people today are unwilling to make those compromises, too.

Comment Re:A little late. (Score 1) 187

The left has become incapable of recognizing it' own authoritarianism or just how far and fast it has moved away from the center. Since 2008, the American right is 2% further to the right, while the Left moved 31% further left. That's far enough from the center to be unable to distinguish it from the far-right. Bill Clinton probably looks like Rush from there now.

I don't give a shit about movement to the right or left, not right now. I just want basic competence and support for the rule of law, because those are the things we've totally lost under the current GOP. A bit of compassion would be good, too. What I wouldn't give to have Dubya back.

Comment Re:Pyrrhic Victory (Score 2) 216

He's running his messaging strategy like a reality show. It's designed to keep people off balance, uncertain, distracted and misinformed. It's designed to encourage you to "tune in" a few hours later.

I think you give him too much credit. I don't think his "messaging strategy" has any design, nor is it a strategy. It's just Trump saying whatever shit bubbles to the top of what sometimes passes for a mind. And it's random and changes every four hours because he's random and changes what he believes every four hours. Or every four minutes.

I don't think he even "learned" to act like a reality show... I think this is just who he is and who he always has been, albeit with an added layer of growing dementia. He was moderately successful on reality TV not because he figured out how to be moderately successful on reality TV, but because his normal personality, style and complete lack of ethics, morality or consistency just happens to be perfect for reality TV.

Comment Re:More from the "never happened" department (Score 1) 260

It does not look like this did anything to "stop nukes". Iran still has the material. Iran can still make nukes with not too much effort. The main reason they stopped is that they do not actually need to have nukes. But after this moronic attacks, they got freshly motivated in that area.

I think after this moronic attack, they now know they don't actually need nukes, at least not until the world loses its appetite for oil, or finds other sources that make Gulf state production irrelevant.

Comment Re: This is what stochastic parrots do (Score 1) 104

A human is able to tell if an LLM is wrong. The opposite isn't true.

Also, even if this fallacious claim were true, it wouldn't actually support Arrogant-Bastard's claim, which wasn't about the state of AI now, but a claim about "intrinsic properties", meaning it would be true forever.

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