
I always like to think of gambling in terms of a very high risk investment.
This analogy is not really valid, because gambling generally has a negative expected value (you lose in the long term) while investment has a positive expected value, whether it's bank account or stocks. In fact, investors demand a higher expected profit when the risk is high. If high-risk stocks had identical expected profits to bank accounts, no one would invest in stocks but rather in the lower risk bank accounts.
Only 15 Saturn V's were built and only 13 of those were actually launched. They could have had an actual catastrophic failure rate of 10% and we would have never known it given the small number of launches that we did.
True. For rockets having 10% failure rate, there is a 25% chance of having 13 successful launches (0.9^13 = 0.254). We can say with some confidence that Saturn V had a failure rate below 20% (5% chance) and good confidence that the rate was below 30% (1% chance).
The time spent on any item of the agenda [of a finance committee] will be in inverse proportion to the sum involved. -- C.N. Parkinson