Every mediocre strategist and state civil servant is now at the mercy of the fat tails. Like I said before, welcome to Extremistan mediocristans, all your bell curve assumptions have fat tail mismatches. All your fat tails are belong to us.
— Ase Deliri (@AhsanDeliri) March 14, 2020
Cascend: Data Shows Wind-Power Was Chief Culprit Of Texas Grid Collapse
A massive cold snap drove demand for electricity well beyond normal levels
This didn’t age well https://t.co/qd8nakiuCR
— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) March 20, 2020
Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China. pic.twitter.com/Fnl5P877VG
— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) January 14, 2020
LOCALISM
The higher you go the more incompetence/reckelessness (with small exceptions). If this virus ever teaches anything, it is localism.
You
Your family
Your town
Your region/county/state
Federal Gov: CDC
The UN/@WHO— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) April 3, 2020
GME Not a single movement in Game Stop was an outlier, with a standard power law with tail index 1.8! Not a single one! See discussion in "Statistical Cons. of Fat Tails". "Markets move from squeeze to squeeze". Most squeezes are small. All self-similar.
GME
Not a single movement in Game Stop was an outlier, with a standard power law with tail index 1.8!
Not a single one!
See discussion in "Statistical Cons. of Fat Tails".
"Markets move from squeeze to squeeze". Most squeezes are small. All self-similar.https://t.co/vZ0mDNg1Fh pic.twitter.com/BChhCxAxn8— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) January 29, 2021
March 2020 Jobless Claims
"The jump is a surprise... but only to economists" pic.twitter.com/mP1EQzFDqF— Jerry Capital (@JerryCap) January 26, 2021
WEAR A MASK
The Salon results. Tutorial answer. pic.twitter.com/LypVBq4o2v— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 10, 2020
I just published The Masks Masquerade https://t.co/qWjIaEZLsE
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 14, 2020
What about masks?@realDonaldTrump: "You can use a scarf—scarf would be very good.
... My feeling is if people want to do it theres certainly no harm to it. I would say do it.
"So you can use scarves or you can use something else over your face..." #Masks4All #MasktheSpread pic.twitter.com/f6ZFFCEvuK — Mask the Spread (@MasktheSpread) April 1, 2020
Serious answer: "work" in this context means "reduce the probability of transmission".
Masks reduce the probability of transmission. Distancing by 6 feet (or preferably more) reduces the probability of transmission. Doing both reduces the probability of transmission EVEN MORE.— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) May 24, 2020
A Cambridge University study showed that lots of household materials are nearly as good as surgical masks, and you can use 2 layers of material to make them even better.
It doesnt need to be perfect - it just needs to reduce viral load so your immune system can kick in! pic.twitter.com/tWYfosBUei— Jeremy Howard (@jeremyphoward) March 25, 2020
Low risk patient - Younger than 45, no comorbidities, and clinically stable High risk patient - Older than 45, younger than 45 with comorbidities, or clinically unstable
Why we should authorize immediately Dr Raoult’s HCQ+AZT treatment
In other words, the basic principle of the ethics of scientific decision-making in such a situation of asymmetric uncertainty is that it is not up to Professor Raoult to demonstrate the effectiveness of his treatment, since certain converging indicators suggest that it works, but on the contrary, it is up to those who refuse the application of the treatment to demonstrate that it is more dangerous than the absence of treatment.
If you want to put yourself on the map, publish your own map.