Detective stories and Bayesian analysis

jairob writes: A paper just posted in the arXiv reviews the maxims used by three early modern fictional detectives: Monsieur Lecoq, C. Auguste Dupin and Sherlock Holmes. It find similarities between these maxims and Bayesian thought. Poe's Dupin uses ideas very similar to Bayesian game theory. Sherlock Holmes' statements also show thought patterns justifiable in Bayesian terms. The author is an emeritus professor of statistics at Carnegie Mellon University.