So. Wrong. From my first hand experience and conversations whith other russian geeks, it has a reverse effect. Most of us are already very much aware of our government's crimes, since we are also its victims. These moves from the western companies and individuals like removing an app, blocking a service – to deny us some small entertainment or even a source of income, feel petty and completely misguided. It does not make you want to overthrow the government (more than you wanted it). Instead it makes you feel abandoned and alienated by the people you thoght were good people, worth trusting and following. So this forces us to go back local Russian products, markets, jobs etc instead of international. And it even makes some of us to give a second thought to what Putin is saying about the West. It takes a lot of effort to keep believing that not everyone is against you in this world.

You guessed right, although these are parliamentary elections, not presidential. The state is not allowing Navalny or anyone from his team to register a party, so now their tactic is to support the most promising candidates from any existing parties other than Putin's United Russia. As a result United Russia will lose at least some seats, even despite voting fraud etc. Not a big loss for Putin himself, but a sign of change, which may spark further developments and a change in political climate. Putin's government seems to be mightily disturbed by that and using any possible methods to stop these candidate lists froms spreading. They even tried to block Google Docs because of this.

What will happen in that case is this. Russian hipsters will continue to buy iPhones in Europe, as they do now to get a tax refund (which pretty much covers the trip); the general public will continue to buy chinese and korean Android phones, as they do now, but even more of them; the grey market will flourish once again (Apple was not always present in Russia); all this will be a topic of the week for the social media, but no one will revolt in the end, and the government will not notice anything. So in this scenario only Apple really suffers. And I bet that people behind this law know it.