Telco = ISP in the future (Score 1)

Regardless of the fact that the media (audio) associated with VoIP (i.e. RTP traffic) is sent end-to-end and is essentially just UDP, the signaling of any of the major VoIP systems (H.323 or SIP) isn't worth much without a service provider. Some entity needs to keep track of a user's presence (just like in IM systems), and needs to be reliable, scalable, etc in ways that an end user's terminal cannot be. There will -always- be a service provider for telecommunications systems - someone has to manage directories, user registrations, and so forth if the system will be anywhere near as good as today's telephone network. And yes, governments will regulate these providers and tax them, whether they are nominally Telcos or ISPs.