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Comment Re:Opera Browser (Score 1) 450

Thanks, I wasn't aware their VPN is free. It's a great selling point. Just installed it, writing this from Opera. I used Opera as the primary browser back in the 00s. This may well replace my sandboxie-d Chrome I use for non-trusted browsing (i.e. outside of a handful of trusted sites like email and banking for which I use non-sandboxied Firefox + NoScript with scripting enabled on those sites).

Comment Re:Murdoch press not enough for you (Score 1) 311

So after failing to produce any evidence for your claim, you say you found something from December 2015 to prove that Stratfor "clipped" it in September 2015, and you don't even offer that but instead go on a tirade about how the person challenging you to support your claim must be a troll and resort to third grade insults.

On top of that the elementary logic escapes you: even if Stratfor did "clip" their report (which you have not been able to prove in any way, you cited existence of Bernie and Trump supporters as the "source" for Stratfor's "clipping"!), the content of the report was in such minority in the media at the time -- almost every other source was saying the opposite -- that knowing to "clip" it and say "this will happen" would have been as prescient as it was to write it.

I see among Hillary supporters -- assuming you were one -- people who consider themselves intellectuals but are completely unaware how emotions cloud their thinking.

Comment Re:Murdoch press not enough for you (Score 1) 311

If you want to point out a Fox News article from September 2015 or before that predicts Trump or Bernie could win or significantly upset the race, I'd like to see it. And you'll have to admit that Trump or Bernie supporters are not "sources", they were all considered fringe disenfranchised losers at the time.

Even so Stratfor would have been "clipping" a small voice in a sea of those who claimed that Trump had no chance, so even that would be quite a gamble -- or prescient. Nevertheless, I'd like to see one such article.

Btw it's not Stratfor, it's George Friedman. He left Stratfor to found Geopolitical Futures. I've been following his work since 1999, including his book the Next 100 years and the next 10 years, and while he's made a few misses, he's been far better than anyone else. He teaches you historical facts, patterns and his deduction mechanisms so you can do your own. It's quite a good feeling to be able to tell what will happen better than the talking heads at CNN and the likes of them.

Comment Re:Research to extend lifespans should be banned (Score 1) 127

I agree, it's like causation is a fuzzy thing, that fades over time as the involvement of complex processes increases. Which leads to the conclusion that causation is just an appearance in our minds, which are constantly constructing and reconstructing the map of reality.

Which in a sense is obvious -- causation exists only within the mental model by definition, and mental models exist only in the mental domain by definition. (Even the term "to exist" is a thought construct, meaningless outside of a mental model.) Causation is a mind illusion about processes in the outside world, stable at short times or simple processes and deceiving at longer times and/or complex processes. Stable as in useful, i.e. you can rely on it for decision making, and vice versa.

Comment Re:Research to extend lifespans should be banned (Score 1) 127

As of late I'm not sure there is such a thing as causation in any complex (human, biological) system, for anything that takes long enough time to manifest.

Sure if you drink poison it will kill you instantly. But if you eat bacon every day will that *cause* a heart disease 40 years after you started? And even in the case of poison it depends -- apparently if you take a small amount of poison regularly it will make you more resistant to that poison (the process is called "hormesis"). Thought it maybe screws up the heart. :-| (Note I'm implying a causation in that sentence.)

Correlation comes from our measurements of the real world. Causation comes from our mental model of that real world, which is never absolute ("the map is not the territory") -- meaning there's always a deep enough level where the model will fail, and in complex systems our models are generally poor.

I think causation is a mental crutch to help us navigate the world of patterns around us but should not be thought of "real."

Comment Re:The devil needed an escape route (Score 1) 311

Clipping service? In September of 2015 when no one thought Bernie or Trump had any chance George Friedman predicted the rise of both: "The Crisis of the Well-Crafted Candidate" -- boy did that title capture the fate of Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and eventually Hillary Clinton.


Being able to see the future that others can't is a sign of understanding reality better than others.

Comment Re:Good news! The grays do not want to eat us! (Score 2) 311

Space exploration is key to the perception of the US around the world. A marketing guy named Clotaire Rapaille in his book "Culture Code" claims that subconscious "code word" for America in other countries is SPACE. You see a picture of astronauts in the US passport as well. I imagine Trump as an American nationalist intuitively understands that space exploration makes America, well, great.

Comment Re:The devil needed an escape route (Score 2, Interesting) 311

Which one of the two is worse is unknowable in principle, but arguably Trump responds to the public feedback, however clumsily. Clinton didn't, being assured of the future she saw in her head. Trump won and she lost. Therefore it's likely we've got a President who is more receptive to the nuances of the real world. I believe that Clinton would have been more likely to cause a calamity -- as she did in Libya, being dead-set on her vision and deaf to the situation in the field.

Comment Re:Something stinks (Score 3, Interesting) 381

I didn't see in TFA any mention of *who* and how has forecast that Donald Trump's policies will deepen the country's social crisis. But I've noticed the sources The Guardian quoted in the past were those who forecast Hillary's victory and people like the Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman whose forecast was "if Trump wins the market will crash and will *never* recover".

Comment Re:Leave the original (Score 1) 542

Maybe Matrix #1 spoke to most people's feeling of being trapped so they resonated with the idea of getting out, where #2 and #3 referred to more metaphysical concepts (i.e. God) that many of those same people didn't want to think about, like I didn't. Or maybe they just hated the dance scenes. Though I liked those too. (Among details, my own suspension of disbelief hit a bump with the exoskeleton weapons but the Merovingian and his wife/mistress more than made up for it.)

Btw I can think, I can wait, I can fast is my favorite quote from Siddartha.

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