QA is the problem. They refuse to do majorly expensive testing on earth to check all subsystems. They really need to fire a 'mars test' system into space and test it landing here. In general, the same system that will land on Mars will land on earth, though not the other way around.
Btw, this is exactly what America nasa and new space does. Prior to sending red dragon, they will make it land on earth first from helicopters, then aircrafts, finally a test space shot.
Actually, I think that you have missed things: the
Falcon 9 can launch ~13 tonnes to leo on a reusable, but 23 tonnes to leo if f9 is expendable. IOW, it is close to the DIVH, only a fraction of the costs.
And the FH will not do a xross-over, but will still get 54+ tonnes to leo.
The falcons are currently volume limited, so supposedly, SX WAS working on new fairing. I'm sure at this moment that those ppl are working on F9's situation which appears to be their helium tank.
everybody that has worked on mars missions.
I worked on MGS, and can tell you that to be successful with most missions, you have to have a much higher level of quality compared to normal.
Oddly, if ESA, Russia, CHina, etc wanted to really test this, they would send a duplicate around the moon and then land it on earth.
That would test just about every subsystems in similar ways.
It is supposed to launch next year with a crew.
I think that it will depend on if SpaceX REALLY has solved the helium tank problem.
However, it should be noted that the launch abort worked perfectly and had the V2 been on the last launcher, it would have survived.
F9 is man-rated according to NASA. Just because it has an issue at the moment, does not remove the man-rating from NASA. You know that.
However, you are correct that SLS is not man-rated yet. So, we have 2 that are.
you said that this was for the last 100 years. Yet, the fact is, that ALL OF THAT took place PRIOR to 100 years ago. For the last 100 years, CHina has been to itself, and the west has had very little to do with it, EXCEPT help them when Japan was raping and pillaging you.
So, lets try again. EXACTLY what warring has China had to do with the west? Keep in mind that prior to WWII, that Japan was not part of the west, and that Russia never has been.
All 3 our launchers, SLS, Atlas V, and F9, are man-rated.
Only 1 capsule, orion, is man-rated. However, dragon and cst-100 will be rated in 1 and 3 years, respectively.
Finally, add on Blue Origin and SNC's vehicle happening 4 years.
And Russia has only 1 man-rated launch system.