I do have experience with forecasting and understand exponential and logistic growth curves.
Unfortunately, most people are not like you and find exponential growth unintuitive. For a disease that doubles every 3 days when uncontrolled like covid19, delaying action by 3 days means you'll end up with double the number of cases and deaths, and delaying by 10 days means you'll have ~10x the number of cases and deaths. The total number of cases/deaths will change dramatically with just a slight change in how quickly and decisively a country takes action to control the spread of the disease.
Did China act more quickly and decisively than the countries that are struggling with it now? Absolutely. When China put Wuhan into lockdown on Jan 23 and the rest of the country a few days later, western media and governments mostly focused on criticizing China's measures as violations of personal freedoms and human rights and doubting the necessity of the measures due to the small number of cases/deaths in China at the time. Instead, our political leaders and officials should have been paying attention to the rapid exponential growth of covid19, which is the key piece of information regarding the spread of an infectious disease.
Now, these same political leaders and officials are blaming China for misleading them, despite the fact that the rate of growth in case numbers reported by China almost perfectly matches those seen 6~8 weeks later in other countries.
https://aatishb.com/covidtrend...
Politicians who claim that they were misled by China's relatively low total numbers are either still missing the point about exponential growth or are simply making excuses for their lack of action. What makes this worse is that many of our political leaders clearly understood the danger early on, as evidenced by them selling their stock portfolios in February after CDC briefings. They took action to protect their own wealth but did not bother to do anything to save the lives of the people they were supposed to lead.