Meanwhile a total copypasta of mere speculation from /r/spacex:
SPACEX, 2020: SEND A SMALL ORBITER AND LANDER. Being only four years from today, use an off-the-shelf spacecraft bus for an orbiter and a lander which is a set of ground penetrators like what was tried with Mars Polar Lander. Probe the subsurface at the MS1 or the candidate sites.
SPACEX, 2022: LAND A PAYLOAD ON MARS AT MS1 with a substantial solar array with processes that stores methane and oxygen. This should not be wasted and should have the potential to act as a backup to the second such system delivered to MS1.
SPACEX, 2024: LAND A DRAGON CARGO AT MS1 which delivers some initial supplies for the first human landing. Include an expandable module that will function as a Quonset hut for supplies. Before 2024, a standard adapter for connecting modules on Mars must be defined, a critical development milestone, so that this and subsequent deliveries can be integrated into a functional outpost.
SPACEX, 2026: LAND A HABITAT MODULE. The module must have the bare essentials to sustain the first landing crew and must operate for the next 3 years to prove the technology ready for a landing before 2030. Likewise, this module would not be wasted and would function as a backup.
SPACEX, 2026: SECOND MISSION. Land a second-generation CH4/O2 processor and an Earth-return launch vehicle at MS1.
SPACEX, 2029: THE FIRST HUMANS TO MARS. Send a crew of 7 astronauts to Musk Station 1. The 2029 mission will involve two Falcon Heavy launches - A "Red" Dragon with living habitat for the journey and a Earth-return launch vehicle with supplies. A first-gen MCT might be the transporter but time & cost between now and 2029 can only support the logistics of a small crew (7).