heironymouscoward's Journal: Heironymous' "Internal Mortality Rate" Law

As part of my ongoing (interminably so) study of human nature, I am defining an index that I call the "Internal Mortality Rate", or IMR.

The IMR of a group is that percentage of its members that are imprisoned or die in any given year. Strictly speaking there are two IMRs, one for incarceration (call it IMR/i) and one for judicial killings (call it IMR/k).

The IMR of a state is a direct and objective measurement of its degree of repressiveness. One should be able to plot a state's IMR over time to understand whether it is moving towards or away from improved civil liberties.

Increased IMR/i is a bad sign, it means either that large segments of the population are being criminalized and locked-up, or that the state is on the way down the "death-squad" road. It's possible to analyse this by looking at the profiles of those being locked up. If they mainly belong on one social or ethnic group, we have an instance of social disharmony that can lead, in extremis, to genocide. If the victims are mainly the young educated urban elite, we have an instance of the old vs. young generational power struggle, typified by a socialist vs. facist struggle for power. In which case an increased IMR/k is highly likely.

Most states on an ascending IMR curve will eventually limit press freedoms so that the public awareness of the actual situation is controlled. However, this act is generally delayed, giving the serious social scientist a window in which to measure the IMR.

I propose, therefore, a general study to rank the 152 countries of the UN according to published and estimated figures. This should be possible, and would be valuable information for human rights activists seeking to learn where to focus their energies.

IMR

[Cyberdyne]

Increased IMR/i is a bad sign, it means either that large segments of the population are being criminalized and locked-up, or that the state is on the way down the "death-squad" road.

Not necessarily. At one extreme, a crime wave would - without any changes in the law, sentencing policies or anything else - result in an increased IMR/i - but the society has not become any more restrictive. Equally, setting some prisoners free would reduce the IMR/i, without necessarily any corresponding improvement; indeed

IMR/i

[heironymouscoward]

The real question is how many innocent prisoners there are...

I believe innocence/guilt is entirely subjective. The are societies, for instance, where brutal murderous rage is a valued talent.

Perhaps there is an objective definition of "crime", and in that case the percentage of true criminals would be constant in all societies and states. The IMR/i could then be adjusted for this.

But it looks rather like "crime" is simply a matter of definition: one man's murder is another man's right to self-defense,

Re:IMR/i

[Cyberdyne]

I believe innocence/guilt is entirely subjective. There are societies, for instance, where brutal murderous rage is a valued talent.

I think that's going a bit too far; we could certainly come up with a list of crimes which are generally regarded as bad: bank robberies and serial killings, for example.

Perhaps there is an objective definition of "crime", and in that case the percentage of true criminals would be constant in all societies and states. The IMR/i could then be adjusted for this.

You could ce

Re:IMR/i

[heironymouscoward]

Let me try to answer the questions you raised.

1. Societies where a talent for murder is socially accepted. Many "primitive" societies exist in a state of permanent conflict between tribes, this has been extensively documented though it goes so far against the idea of the "noble savage" that mainstream sociology has tried to repress this. You can see the heated discussion about Chagnon's research. In such societies, killing another man (from another tribe, of course) is a rite of passage, the most violen

Re:IMR/i

[Cyberdyne]

1. Societies where a talent for murder is socially accepted. Many "primitive" societies exist in a state of permanent conflict between tribes, this has been extensively documented though it goes so far against the idea of the "noble savage" that mainstream sociology has tried to repress this. You can see the heated discussion about Chagnon's research. In such societies, killing another man (from another tribe, of course) is a rite of passage, the most violent men have the highest status (and most wives and

Re:IMR/i

[heironymouscoward]

I'll answer some of the points you raised.

1. Belgian law indeed holds the growing of cannabis as illegal, but "law" has somewhat of a different meaning in Belgium than the US. By publically declaring that the law would not be enforced (and this was a parliamentary decision) for small use, we have a situation of ambiguity that suits everyone. But the fact is, it's no longer illegal, law or not, and smoking a joint in public, under the nose of a policeman, will not even raise an eyebrow.

2. Nazi Germany ha

Re:IMR/i

[Cyberdyne]

Countries with lax enforcement and sentencing either have a really well-behaved populace (in which case they are "good scorers" on the IMR scale), and I'll cite Belgium as one example, or they simply have a weak and ineffective government, which will provoke a larger rise in IMR due to crime, terrorism, and interethnic violence.

I'd be more inclined to regard most of the EU as the latter rather than the former, but then I've had bad experiences with EU law non-enforcement... The problem is, lax enforcement

Increased crime

[heironymouscoward]

I reckon, but this is not based on study, that increased crime means more deaths in certain segments of society - not just criminals shooting each other, but people being burglared, carjacked, and simply beaten up. All this would add to the IMR, so lax law-keeping would create a more repressive society, even if the repressive aspects came from your neighbours, not the cops.

Think of Albania after it fell apart.

Re:Increased crime

[Cyberdyne]

I reckon, but this is not based on study, that increased crime means more deaths in certain segments of society - not just criminals shooting each other, but people being burglared, carjacked, and simply beaten up. All this would add to the IMR, so lax law-keeping would create a more repressive society, even if the repressive aspects came from your neighbours, not the cops.

At least in the UK, where exactly this scenario has been playing out, the increased death rate doesn't seem to have happened. Burglar

Re:Increased crime

[heironymouscoward]

At least in the UK, where exactly this scenario has been playing out, the increased death rate doesn't seem to have happened.

This may be good news, but of course it depends on what you prefer: an aggressive state, or a certain level of crime. Personally, I was burglared earlier this year, and I found the experience far less traumatic than (for instance) a single visit to the tax man. The burglar I could sympathize with, though I definitely wanted to murder him (no joke) for at least a week or two after

Re:Increased crime

[Cyberdyne]

This may be good news, but of course it depends on what you prefer: an aggressive state, or a certain level of crime.

The tradeoff isn't that simple; you can have a non-aggressive state which still puts effort into investigating and prosecuting crimes. Britain does the opposite: an aggressive state, too concerned with its own interests to bother protecting the people from criminals.

It's a fine balance, the hand of the state or the hand of your fellow man, and I don't imagine it works very well anywhere.

A suggestion and a problem

[Mammothrept]

If you aren't already aware of her work, take a look at Helen Fein's "Accounting for Genocide," an accountant/sociologist's take on the Holocaust and what to look for as statistical warning flares for impending genocides. It is a flawed work but it is in the same field you are looking at and there isn't anything better that I'm aware of.

A problem that your methodology will run into is a bias as far as who keeps statistics. Developed, generally law abiding countries tend to keep better statistics on wh

Methodology

[heironymouscoward]

It's true that the truth on real death rates gets progressively harder to discover as the IMR increases. But this effect can probably be predicted and accounted for.

Perhaps the IMR should include all "civil" mortality except that caused by external conflict: I believe that when (e.g.) Thai police are allowed to execute suspected criminals, it is a measure of the state of Thai society as much as the slaughter of villagers by unknown men in Algeria reflects on that society.

I will read Helen Fein's book. O