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Comment It is impossible for a system to predict itself (Score 1) 676

unless all its activity is used in the act of prediction (the universe predicts itself in real time, but does nothing else). It will be always difficult for humans to openly predict the behavior of humanity. The reason is simple: if you openly predict accurately the future, the margin to profit from that knowledge is so big, that the market will modify the trend, and your prediction will meaningless. The only way to predict the future with a high degree of accuracy, without influencing it with the prediction you must do two things: - do it secretly, in a small group, so that there is no "market" - do not use your knowledge to alter in a big way your prediction. That is, you can profit from your prediction, but not too much compared to the quantity being predicted. A concrete example: I predict rightly that the price of oil will be 200$ in one month. If I make that prediction open, and the market trusts me, the market will immediately adjust to that prediction. Those market forces will render my prediction completely moot. If, on the other hand, I keep that prediction to myself, I can profit from it as long as my profits are not affecting in a big way the price of oil.

Comment One moment! (Score 1) 986

Somebody has said, referring to the second law of thermodinamics, that ethanol is an energy sink. It is not so, if we consider the energy provided by our sun as a free source of energy (as it is for us humans). Ethanol is produced using mainly two energy sources: petrol (to move the machinery and to produce the related fertilizers/pesticides), and solar energy (the crops are energy collectors). The ultimate question is: "How much energy can we extract from ethanol for each unit of energy of petrol invested?" It is not clear that we get less that we put in. And even if it was, there is still an argument in favour of ethanol: it is a perfect substitue for gas, and we could become energy independent if we started producing ethanol using a trully renovable energy source (solar, or whatever).
User Journal

Journal Journal: The winner

A problem with the capitalist culture is that it focuses the attention of people on winners; it tries to look for winners in each field of endeavour, and it succeeds: most of the times, the winner is not considerably better than the lossers; It is maybe even worse than the lossers; but finding the right winner is not the goal: the goal is to have a winner, or a small set of winners, on which the attention of people can be focused.

User Journal

Journal Journal: Microsoft loves cooperation

We all think that Microsoft (and other privately held companies, for that matter), hate open communities: they continualy attack the open source developmente method, they characterize GPL as being a cancer ...

User Journal

Journal Journal: Why big companies are so bad

Let's split the world into four kind of companies:

1 - small companies trying to be big companies
2 - small companies not trying to be big companies
3 - big companies trying to strengthen their position
4 - big companies not trying to strengthen their position

By "big company" I understand a company with monopolistic power.

User Journal

Journal Journal: Whe the world is fucked up

I just thought about this while taking a shower this morning. What is the fundamental problem in our capitalistic society? I think it is a problem of scale; companies and individuals have different thinking time-frames: a company can see much further in the future than an individual does. An individual is not able to foresee the consequences of certain decission, because too many factors are involved; instead, it focuses on immediate beneffits. This limitation is used by a company to push an

User Journal

Journal Journal: Decission making

I assume I am just following the path a lot of Free Software developpers have followed long before me: I do not like what I am seeing, and I feel the need to do something to change the way things are evolving: yesterday MS announced format lock-up for Office, together with DRM features. Last week the target was Instant Messaging. If we go on like this, the Internet will be owned by companies very soon. I do not like this prospect, so I will do what I can to stop it. I think I have the skills and

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How many NASA managers does it take to screw in a lightbulb? "That's a known problem... don't worry about it."

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