Re:work on environmental issues and peak oil (Score 1)

I realize that history is filled with doom and gloom types, and I really hope my basic analysis is wrong. But for some nagging reason the more I look at the problem, the more I find several trends trends that do not bode well for the general population of the US as well as large segements of the global population, perhaps I am a nut case that has kinda obsessed looking at the current data.

To respond to some of your points, local distribution might indeed be a solution to local water shortages. But by "drought" I am looking at the disturbing trend of "supply exceeding demand" in for basic natural resources like water and oil. In the 1970 Mr. Malthus, might have sent people running for the hills with warnings of doom and gloom, but I keep on falling back on the disturbing idea that supply is exceeding demand for key natural resources that are the basis of the modern global economy.

Classical economic arguements, are as prices go up of item oil or water for example, then the market responds by building infrastructure to drill for more oil or build more infrastructure to capture and transport more water. Back in the 70's the only major consumers in the world were in the united states, westeren europe and japan. The total population of the consumer culture was on the order of 500 million people.

I'm not an economist, but one thing I don't see basic economic models is the idea of a limit from basic calculus. In the 1970's the usa, europe and japan were able to grow their economies and improve their lifestyles by borrowing resources from abroad. Economies grow by using natural resources like oil and water. For example using the concept of embodied water did you know it takes about 10 gals of water to make one computer chip.

The reason I have an uneasy gut feeling bad things rae in store, is because china and india are now beginning to consume just like the usa, europe and japan. So the total number of consumers in a consumer economy is now over 2.5 billion people. To give you an idea of the scale of the problem, the average person in the USA uses about 100 gals of water per day, and the total oil used per capita is something over 20 barrels of oil (1 barrel = 42 gal), in china and india the average useage is a magnitude less for both water and oil (but demand in those emerging markets is going up).

I've actually been in more than my fair share of 3rd world countries, and can understand why they envy and want the american life style of cars, cheap food, big homes, etc. But when I did basic calculations of the the embodied energy required to sustain the average american life style and balanced them out with existing know resources, the numbers indicate that something will eventually have to give. My basic analysis is too much money in the USA is spent on consumer goods (which consume large amounts of natural resources), but not enought is being "invested" in basic infrastructure, R&D and directed technology to sustain the current consumer life style in USA. In effect this present generation is borrowing resources from future generations, its akin to the bad management decisions made in the subprime mess. When fundamentals and conservative management is ignored then is going to be hell to pay.

As far as appealing to religious groups, I'm not quite sure if candy coating the problems of natural resource management is the best strategy in the long run. During the cold war and even after the 9/11 attack, people were motivated by fear which I think is a much more powerful force in terms of humans trying to do something.

FOr example, let's say a balanced diet and exercist is a good thing. Ever notice that 2/3 of the american public is overweight and unfit, btw that figure in what I've read in more than a few news articles. I've also read that heart diesease is the number one cause of premature death in the USA on the order 400,000. Most people if polled would say diet and exercise is a good thing but they really don't follow that common sense advise. Same with the environment, they say we should be good stewards. After many americans have heart probelms, if they live thru it, they suddenly get religion, in that they change their old bad habbits and learn to control their diet and do some exercise.

As it stands bible thumper zealots are motivated by fear of gay terrorists getting married who plan to open abortion clinics (to encapsulate that social groups concerns), I think if ya suggest to that group that they are going to hell instead of heaven, they might be strongly directed to actually manage the environment for the long term.