While Ming-Chi Kuo has a very good track record over the years on most things Apple, I'm not sure that gives him any inside track on predicting the behavior of Samsung customers when presented with an unprecedented situation. Unless he has sales channel data supporting this, its just a more informed estimate.
Until people actually buy their replacements, and we get sales data somehow to reflect this, we are still in the land of speculation, however well intentioned.
And the numbers may well be different for behavior after the first and second recalls (yeah, who knew we needed those sort of terms).
Hopefully someone on the Apple call next week will ask for some data from Apple about this in the context of sales in the current quarter.
Until Apple says something backed by actual data, or someone manages a survey of behavior (Verizon/ATT/etc) does, its all just guesses.