Comment Re:Thankfully, we ARE! (Score 1) 4183
There is, however, a problem with this line of thought. Broken down rather simply thusly:
When both nations had thousands, or 10's of thousands of warheads, and the capability to deliver these, then Mutually Assured Destruction was very evident and very real.
Reduce by half. Now we have five thousand. Still enough to reduce any nation to a pile of radioactive slag.
Reduce again and again.
Suddenly you and another country only have 200 missles left.
A first strike option is now survivable.
Think of it this way: get in close with subs and bombers to reduce reaction time, hit launch sites (ICBM's aren't really that easy to hide) and command posts and rely on your defense system to get a bunch of the rest. If you take out half, then there are a hundred that can launch or be used, and since you struck first, you're on alert for counter-attacks and can plan accordingly. Your defenses are on alert and ready for any retaliation, if any is coming.
Yes, you'll take some casualties, but as a whole, you've survived and the enemy hasn't.
I don't see this happening, as the climate between the nations that could do this has warmed, and current leadership asside, neither country wants to see this happen. At least with the regimes we both have.
You can see, however, that with the right leadership, this calculus can change.
david
When both nations had thousands, or 10's of thousands of warheads, and the capability to deliver these, then Mutually Assured Destruction was very evident and very real.
Reduce by half. Now we have five thousand. Still enough to reduce any nation to a pile of radioactive slag.
Reduce again and again.
Suddenly you and another country only have 200 missles left.
A first strike option is now survivable.
Think of it this way: get in close with subs and bombers to reduce reaction time, hit launch sites (ICBM's aren't really that easy to hide) and command posts and rely on your defense system to get a bunch of the rest. If you take out half, then there are a hundred that can launch or be used, and since you struck first, you're on alert for counter-attacks and can plan accordingly. Your defenses are on alert and ready for any retaliation, if any is coming.
Yes, you'll take some casualties, but as a whole, you've survived and the enemy hasn't.
I don't see this happening, as the climate between the nations that could do this has warmed, and current leadership asside, neither country wants to see this happen. At least with the regimes we both have.
You can see, however, that with the right leadership, this calculus can change.
david
