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Comment Re:Where does all the money come from? (Score 1) 61

What I've heard is a market cap well north of a trillion dollars is expected.

Yes. As I said, market cap or "valued at" doesn't mean that's how much money people put in.

It is losing money combined with being a commodity + rapid obsolescence that seems strange to me.

Then don't buy shares. Anthropic is making an offer, which you can accept, or not. I certainly won't be. There are lots of good general reasons why you should never buy an IPO, especially as an individual investor. I'm not sure what's strange about it though. Lots of successful companies deal in commodities, including perishable ones, from whoever you buy your food from to Facebook and Microsoft.

Comment Re:Where does all the money come from? (Score 1) 61

Billions, not trillions. Two trillion is what you get when you multiply the hypothetical share price by the number of shares. They'll just sell a small fraction of them.

And yes, people do it all the time. Notable examples include Amazon, Uber, etc. Most American companies are not profitable at IPO:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/...

Comment Re: With what Budget? (Score 1) 89

It's amazing to me that with access to the world's knowledge people will just write shit, then, when corrected, insist on it, without bothering to check. Anonymity is a powerful thing I guess.

Here, I copied the link to the Artemis program outline for you:

https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in...

Comment Re: With what Budget? (Score 1) 89

Yes, they do. The HLS might take people from lunar orbit to the surface and back. They've still got to get to lunar orbit, and that uses an expensive SLS launch.

Even using Starship, it's unclear how much it would cost to launch from Earth to the moon. A lot more than it would seem from the mass to LEO numbers for sure. A hell of a lot of refuelling launches are required, including refuelling in lunar orbit, which means those tankers need their own LEO refuelling.

Likewise, the potential contract with Blue Origin is for the lander, not the whole mission. New Glenn isn't big enough, although the upgraded version they're talking about is getting closer. It doesn't exist yet though.

Neither Starship nor New Glenn are human rated and Starship especially isn't likely to be any time soon. Not good for racing.

Comment Re:In before... (Score 1) 16

"Our frontier models somehow got access to the internet and hacked a bunch of things, these things are unstoppable, sorry! Btw IPO soon"

"Our vast experience has taught us that giving our models access to the internet and telling them to hack stuff is a bad idea so we won't be doing that anymore. We look forward to everyone else following our industry leading best practices."

Except with some "humility" thrown in, and more linkedin cheese.

Comment Re:China must be progressing!! (Score 2) 89

China is a communist dictatorship and can therefore barely feed its people, only has technology it's stolen, and is therefore hopelessly behind.

Also China is the greatest existential threat in the world and we must all spend 5% of our GDP on the military (I assume, because Russia is our friend now?), race them to the moon, and cease using all advanced Chinese technology immediately.

Comment Re:Celebrities [Re:Sea level rise [Re:Uh HUH]] (Score 1) 84

The question was about sea level rise.

If the rising waters coincide with other climatic events, such as rainstorms and high tides, the phenomenon could swallow beaches, chew away bluffs and coastlines

There is a narrative that oh, a few cm of sea level rise is no problem, it's just a little higher water. It isn't.

However, the kinds of multi-million-dollar mansions that celebrities buy aren't the rickety perched-on-the-edge-of-a-crumbling bluff houses built in the 30s and 40s. They tend to be built-by-high-priced-architects homes that had civil engineers to advise about the stability of the foundation.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/entert...

Comment Re:Its a trap! (Score 1) 41

If AI is ruled a serious risk that requires a government kill switch you won't be running any open weights models on hardware you control. I expect that's what the FSF is afraid of. That's why they refer to it as hypothetical technology as in "assuming such a kill switch was developed".

It might seem far fetched but consider that you are probably (based on the American readership of this site):

- not permitted to buy more than a few grams of effective cold medication per day and have to show ID, which goes in a tracking system, in order to do so.

- while you are allowed to purchase microcontrollers, if you install this on them they are illegal to possess

- possession or use of all manner of chemicals, combinations of chemicals and shaped metal considered dangerous will get you prosecuted with various degrees of zeal

The big AI companies, who already possess the most effective possible actual kill switches, seem oddly enthusiastic about the whole thing.

Comment Re:If they are thermally efficient enough (Score 1) 129

Not just downlink, but the inter-satellite bandwidth and latency is also likely to be a problem. I saw an analysis of what it would take to build a big datacentre, and there the cooling really does become a problem. Not the radiators so much as the plumbing to move the heat around. So everyone is talking about lots of little satellites, but that means you're restricted to a handful of cards locally. It's going to restrict the kinds of jobs you can do when the next rack over is a thousand kilometres away.

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