Even if these numbers are completely accurate, and you assume that 200 out of the 300 million people in the US are cell phone buyers, this still means 300,000 iPhones would be sold in the US. Given that Steve Jobs said his companies goal was to have 1 million iPhones out in the wild, globally, by the end of 2008, this number is extremely reasonable. Remember, prices will drop, additional incentives will be created, etc. Also, keep in mind that once people see the iPhones in action, when the Jones' next door have one, etc., this no longer becomes a completely rational purchase. The iPhone won't work for me, so I doubt I'll ever buy one, but I still fully expect this to be a hit.