Comment some interesting observations (Score 1) 481
an interesting thing to note, i saw a graph of the failure rate of hds against time period - though i cannot discuss where. it starts off with a high failure rate just after purchase, then drops down to a very low level and maintains stable for a long period of time, before increasing again sharply.
interestingly they did not put a scale on the failure rate or the time period, but from what was discussed the initial high failure rate is in the first few months, and the leveling out where there is a very low failure rate, is a considerable time of about 3 years) initially the failure rate is high, because manufacturor testing is only soo limited, it may take 2 months of use before the hd will actually fail, after the initial time period where the bad hds have been weeded out, the failure rate is very low. then by the time it starts to raise sharply - its after about 3-4 years which would have easily made that hd outdated and unuseable to the general market. (sure theres still gonna be people using 120mb hds 10 years after they came out - if they bitch and whinge about them dying, they have an unreasonable expectation for the life of a hd - its like driving a car for 10 years and not expecting it to break down because its worn out)
basically the manufacturors beleive 3yr warranty is not neccessary any more, a 1 year warranty is acceptable as it will cover 95% of warranty claims, and they are trying to reduce the cost of hd's for the 95% of people by not making them pay for the replacements of the 5% that try and claim them 3 years later, when their 4GB hd has to be replaced with a 40gb hd since there are no more 4gbs floating round. sure im happy with the reasoning, but then only aiming to keep 95% of their customers happy is a bit poor, they should still aim for 99.99% because hd's are so vital for the customer.
the other thing to note, is that the smaller warranty period should reduce the price of hds - but hell, i havent seen any considerable drop in price at all since the 1st october! some have actually risen a small amount here in NZ. i thought about it long and hard and realised it can be attributed to a couple of points, - the fluctuating nz dollar (which means ram, hds, cpus) change price every couple of days, and that could it be that the failure rate of hd's is so low, that any price savings from reduced warranty period is negligible and customers would prefere to pay it rather than risk losing data? let me throw some figures about:
say a 80GB hd can be manufactured for $200NZ approx, say the rate of failure for hds is 6% first year, 1% for the next two years following, and 6% for the 4th year and increases (but warranty was only for 3 years so it wont be used in the calculation), and the hd manufacturor wants $20NZ profit after all warranty claims.
these figures are rough, and do not take into compounded failure rates as i cant be bothered calculating all that since it is pitiful and would only complecate what im trying to point out.
$200 + (cost of failures) + profit = selling price
cost of failures = $12 (6% of $200) + $2 (1%of $200 etc) + $2 = $16
So:
$200 + $16 + $20 = $236 retail
now since the cost to have a warranty in the second two years - $4, is so small, the savings that will be passed to customers is pitiful, and thats why there has been little, if any, price drop of hd's in NZ - whats it like overseas?
now say only half that savings of $4 is passed onto the customer, that leaves $2 that the hd manufacturor can pocket themselves. and thats reasonable to suggest, seeing as that mid range and budget hds are a commodity now - the hd manufacturors are making slim margins.
being a computer wholesaler and dealer, selling a hd alone to customers results in very little profit and I rely on selling volumes to actually make a living. mid range ram is also heading that way, and so are mid range cpus....
i thought id just point all this out, and get you guys thinking...
ps. if your bitching about the warranty drop, you should have brought a hd in september, or go find some september stock still covered by 3yr warranty on sale now - search hard though they are round but not for long - ive just sold out the 3yr warranty stock i stockpiled. plus if your still going to be using your 40gb hd in 3-4 years, get real :) dont be so cheap! or buy a commercial grade hd that has the 3yr warranty!
interestingly they did not put a scale on the failure rate or the time period, but from what was discussed the initial high failure rate is in the first few months, and the leveling out where there is a very low failure rate, is a considerable time of about 3 years) initially the failure rate is high, because manufacturor testing is only soo limited, it may take 2 months of use before the hd will actually fail, after the initial time period where the bad hds have been weeded out, the failure rate is very low. then by the time it starts to raise sharply - its after about 3-4 years which would have easily made that hd outdated and unuseable to the general market. (sure theres still gonna be people using 120mb hds 10 years after they came out - if they bitch and whinge about them dying, they have an unreasonable expectation for the life of a hd - its like driving a car for 10 years and not expecting it to break down because its worn out)
basically the manufacturors beleive 3yr warranty is not neccessary any more, a 1 year warranty is acceptable as it will cover 95% of warranty claims, and they are trying to reduce the cost of hd's for the 95% of people by not making them pay for the replacements of the 5% that try and claim them 3 years later, when their 4GB hd has to be replaced with a 40gb hd since there are no more 4gbs floating round. sure im happy with the reasoning, but then only aiming to keep 95% of their customers happy is a bit poor, they should still aim for 99.99% because hd's are so vital for the customer.
the other thing to note, is that the smaller warranty period should reduce the price of hds - but hell, i havent seen any considerable drop in price at all since the 1st october! some have actually risen a small amount here in NZ. i thought about it long and hard and realised it can be attributed to a couple of points, - the fluctuating nz dollar (which means ram, hds, cpus) change price every couple of days, and that could it be that the failure rate of hd's is so low, that any price savings from reduced warranty period is negligible and customers would prefere to pay it rather than risk losing data? let me throw some figures about:
say a 80GB hd can be manufactured for $200NZ approx, say the rate of failure for hds is 6% first year, 1% for the next two years following, and 6% for the 4th year and increases (but warranty was only for 3 years so it wont be used in the calculation), and the hd manufacturor wants $20NZ profit after all warranty claims.
these figures are rough, and do not take into compounded failure rates as i cant be bothered calculating all that since it is pitiful and would only complecate what im trying to point out.
$200 + (cost of failures) + profit = selling price
cost of failures = $12 (6% of $200) + $2 (1%of $200 etc) + $2 = $16
So:
$200 + $16 + $20 = $236 retail
now since the cost to have a warranty in the second two years - $4, is so small, the savings that will be passed to customers is pitiful, and thats why there has been little, if any, price drop of hd's in NZ - whats it like overseas?
now say only half that savings of $4 is passed onto the customer, that leaves $2 that the hd manufacturor can pocket themselves. and thats reasonable to suggest, seeing as that mid range and budget hds are a commodity now - the hd manufacturors are making slim margins.
being a computer wholesaler and dealer, selling a hd alone to customers results in very little profit and I rely on selling volumes to actually make a living. mid range ram is also heading that way, and so are mid range cpus....
i thought id just point all this out, and get you guys thinking...
ps. if your bitching about the warranty drop, you should have brought a hd in september, or go find some september stock still covered by 3yr warranty on sale now - search hard though they are round but not for long - ive just sold out the 3yr warranty stock i stockpiled. plus if your still going to be using your 40gb hd in 3-4 years, get real
