I have looked at the data for the past 15 years. Some work like healthcare and IT are going up and some work like manufacturing are going down. The total amount of work is declining steadily at the speed of about 0,4% of population losing a job every year. This is not actual job loss, as I am looking at hours of work done and estimating the amount of jobs based on the hours, because some jobs are short term, some have only few hours etc.

Problem is not about inventing new jobs. Problem is finding new customers. Currently new customers come from the middle class increasing by about 250 million per year. But that can continue for only about 20 years in the best case scenario. After that there will no longer be growth in consuming. After that, every increase in automation will not mean new jobs, it will mean just job loss.

And this is the absolutely best case scenario I can think of. I still think that most realistic scenario is that it will be just downhill from here on.

Why did they sign a deal instead of just switching to OpenJDK. We have a big project and we did the switch and there were zero problems with it. It is the exactly same product, but Oracle has some additional packages on top of it. If you don't use those rare packages, you can use OpenJDK just fine.

Personally I don't need to install solar panels, because so many have installed them already. For example today electricity cost is about minus 2 cents/kW on the cheapest time, because there is so much solar during those hours.

If I would install something, it would be batteries, but I have not done either. It is cheaper to just use electricity during the cheap times and avoid using it on the high price times. The electricity cost is about 10-20 dollars per month for me, which is insignificant with my income. I would not even have the need to use electricity during the cheap times, but it is like a hobby to save the planet.

Amount of green energy is growing at exponential speed. In 2024 green energy powered 40% of global electricity. Even US has increased clean energy production and switched from coal to natural gas, which is slightly better.

So situation is constantly improving at a rapid speed.

Google solved it already in 2024:
https://research.google/blog/m...

Even if every woman would start having 2 kids, population would still collapse. Japan has about 1.26 birth rate per woman. If whole world had the same birth rate, the population of humans would drop to about 4 billion in 2100.

At the current pace we will most likely hit 10 billion, but after that the population starts to drop. If birth rate drops even by 0.5 points, we will be around 6 billion in 2100.

Drone is many times easier to build than a caretaker bot. Perhaps the hardest task to automate, which also consumes a lot of time from the humans is about changing clothes, but it is not the same as changing clothes to a healthy person. Old people will have hard time controlling their muscles, so you have to use force, massage or what ever to get their limbs to the correct position so you can take and put clothes on. It is not an impossible problem for robots to solve, but much harder than just flying around.

But there are many tasks that are more easy to automate. Like reporting, which also consumes quite a lot of time.

You are slightly correct.

Economies don't require population growth. You can handle the work with robots and you can get tax money from companies. It is just much harder to do it this way, because companies can move out of the country if you tax them too heavily.

Problem with stable population is that it does not provide growth and economies have relied of growth, because that is the only way they can pay back the debt. Other problem is that automation consumes about jobs every year at the rate of about 0.4% of population. So even if you have stable population, you will get increasing amount of unemployment due to automation, so stable population does not provide stable economies on its own in the era of automation.

It is true that Disney is very offensive towards artists. Here is a video about the story of Don Rosa and what Disney did to him. Don Rosa was one of the best artists that has made Disney cartoons, but Disney pretty much forced him to quit that. It is a rather sad story, but I recommend it for anyone who thinks that Disney is a good guy. I don't think that Disney is especially evil, I think that many companies abuse their artists, but as I am personally a fan of Don Rosa, this was especially sad thing for me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

The story of Arne vs. Disney is indeed interesting. I recommend this video for anyone who is not familiar about it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?...

I could write a summary about the story, but I think it is much more interesting if you watch the video with actual images related to the story.

AI will not just pass. Even if there is absolutely zero development in the AI research, there will still be tons of work to be done in the AI apps that just sort images or sounds to different boxes. E.g. count birds based on sounds, teach students to play piano correctly, sort cucumbers or legos to correct boxes, that kind of work.

It is also extremely likely that we will soon have an AI that will develop drugs. There should be no reason why such an AI could not be made, because AlphaFold3 does almost everything required for it already. This alone will have massive impact on humanity.

There are also several cases where AI has been used to advance research in mathematics, so it would be impossible that no-one would try to use it for the same purpose more. If you are researching mathematics and you think AI might solve a problem you have been trying to solve for 10 years with zero progress, you can be sure that you want to try to use AI for it.

I think you could manage to teach even without a TV with just a text book and practice book, but I think animations and such make it much easier to understand some areas. We know for certain that some kids can learn just from the books alone. We also know that even with a teacher in the class, some students won't learn.

Unfortunately I have not been able to find a single study that would examine how well a normal class would learn without a teacher, if they had a (good) structured self learning material on hand. It seems as if there is no motivation in finding out how well it would go. In other words, we are not even tried.

Here is what I have in mind for the study:
0. First of all, the videos and computer program used in the study should be top class. Something that has really took effort to make, to make sure we are comparing top quality self learning material to normal teachers. This might sound unfair, but we can easily copy the high quality material, so even if the material costs a million dollars to make, if we use it for million students, the cost would be dollar per student. This is also the most difficult part, as getting a funding for something like this is not easy.
1. After the material is ready, we start so that student watches a video about the subject.
2. Student starts practicing on a computer. Computer checks answers and gives instant feedback. This works especially well on subjects that rely on memorization, e.g. languages. It does not work on subjects where you can't use automatic checking of answers, but I would be happy to see this even in one subject for starters.
3. Computer shows constantly your progress and gives you points and what ever to motivate you like any normal video game.
4. After several days or weeks, when computer thinks you are ready, you will take a test to evaluate your score.
5. We let human teachers teach a class traditional way and let them take the same test and compare results. How long did it take? What kind of results did the students get? How well did the best and the worse do? Is there a age limit after which this would start working?

I think that very likely we have AGI within 4 years. But I also think that you overestimate how fast society will change because of that.

Think about schools. We had the technology to make schools without teachers 20-40 years ago, but still, nothing has changed and schools are still full of teachers. There will be some who adapt fast, but majority will try to slow things down.

Research cost does not matter if they can sell on global scale (which I am sure they are aiming for). And you are making wrong comparison. The car does not cost 15k more, that is the cost of the driver for perhaps 3 or more years. So you are getting a taxi driver for 5k per year.

Deepmind is working on making drugs with AI and they have made good progress with it too. I think it is more likely that within few years we have a cure for everything. Even aging. And the price will be eventually really low due to automation handling the work. Not only for drugs, but for everything. We have seen prices dropping due to automation already in the past.

I think society will at some point change to some kind of communism or StarTrek-utopia. But before that happens, times can be rough for some people. Not the majority of people, as majority will force the change, but some people will suffer.