Asteroid 2024 YR4 Trajectory and Moon Impact Risk in 2032 Moon’s Projected Location in 2032 (Dec 22, 2032) By late December 2032, the Moon will be orbiting Earth at its usual distance (about one Lunar Distance, ~384,400 km on average) BLOGS.ESA.INT . Specifically, around December 22, 2032, the Moon will be in a waning gibbous phase (about 6 days after full moon). This means the Moon will be located somewhat behind and to the side of Earth relative to the Sun on that date. In practical terms: The Moon will still be near Earth (only ~1 lunar distance away) and moving along its 27-day orbit. Its exact position changes daily, but on Dec 22 it will likely lie a significant fraction of its orbit behind Earth’s position along Earth’s path around the Sun (since it was full on Dec 16, it trails behind Earth after having been almost directly opposite the Sun). The Moon’s orbital position at that time is crucial: if an asteroid passes near Earth on that date, whether the Moon is in the right spot to be hit depends on the Moon’s position along its orbit. In summary, the Moon will be close by (as always) on Dec 22, 2032, and not, say, on the opposite side of Earth’s orbit or anything. It orbits Earth at ~384,000 km, so any asteroid coming very near Earth around that date could conceivably also come near the Moon if the timing and alignment are just right.(For context, one “Lunar Distance” (LD) is the average Earth–Moon distance of about 384,000 km BLOGS.ESA.INT .) Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Trajectory and 2032 Close Approach Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a recently discovered near-Earth asteroid whose orbit crosses Earth’s path. Key facts about its trajectory and discovery include: Discovery and Size: 2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS survey telescope in Chile BLOGS.NASA.GOV . It is estimated to be 40–90 meters in diameter (about 130–300 feet across) BLOGS.NASA.GOV ESA.INT . An object of this size is significant – if it hit Earth it could cause severe regional damage ESA.INT , which is why it drew attention from planetary defense experts. Orbit and Path: This asteroid orbits the Sun in an Earth-crossing orbit (likely an Apollo-type NEO). Soon after its discovery, orbital calculations showed that on December 22, 2032 the asteroid’s path will bring it very near Earth’s position ESA.INT . Essentially, 2024 YR4 is on course to pass close to Earth on Dec 22, 2032 ESA.INT . This projected close approach is what initially raised concern. Close Approach Distance: While the exact trajectory will be refined with further observations, the projected 2032 flyby distance is on the order of magnitude of the Earth–Moon distance. In fact, early predictions allowed for the possibility that it might even intersect Earth itself (hence an impact risk). As data improved, it appears the asteroid will miss Earth, likely passing at a distance comparable to or somewhat beyond the Moon’s orbit. In other words, it’s expected to pass on the scale of a few hundred thousand kilometers from Earth – close in cosmic terms, but not a direct hit (more on the probabilities below). Given that it will bypass Earth, the next question was whether it could hit something else nearby – namely, our Moon. The Moon, being ~1 LD away, could conceivably be in the asteroid’s vicinity during the flyby if geometry lines up. To assess that, scientists looked at the asteroid’s path relative to both Earth and Moon. Impact Risk Assessment for Earth and Moon Initial Calculations: When 2024 YR4 was first discovered and its orbit computed, there was a small but notable chance of impact with Earth in 2032. As of late December 2024 and early January 2025, the asteroid was added to NASA’s Sentry risk list with a “non-zero probability” of hitting Earth on Dec 22, 2032 SPACEPOLICYONLINE.COM . Early estimates put the probability on the order of ~1% or a bit higher, which was unusually high relative to other known asteroids SPACEPOLICYONLINE.COM . In fact, by mid-February 2025, the estimated Earth impact probability had briefly risen as new data came in – up to about 2–3% at peak (NASA reported ~2.3% and ESA about 2.8% chance) BLOGS.NASA.GOV BLOGS.ESA.INT . This made 2024 YR4 one of the “riskiest” asteroids ever detected at the time, albeit still a very low absolute probability BLOGS.ESA.INT .However, this spike in probability is a common pattern for newly discovered asteroids: initial orbits have uncertainties, and sometimes Earth lies within that uncertainty zone, yielding a percent-level impact chance. Astronomers fully expected the risk to be revised as more observations refined the orbit BLOGS.ESA.INT BLOGS.ESA.INT . And that’s exactly what happened in the following weeks.Refined Orbit & Earth Risk Dropped: Throughout January and February 2025, observatories worldwide (coordinated by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and the International Asteroid Warning Network) tracked 2024 YR4. Each new batch of data helped narrow down the asteroid’s path. As predicted, the more the orbit was refined, the more it became clear Earth would not be hit. By mid-to-late February 2025, the impact probability for Earth on Dec 22, 2032 had plummeted to effectively zero. NASA’s analysis as of Feb 24, 2025 put the chance of Earth impact at just 0.004% (virtually nil) BLOGS.NASA.GOV . ESA likewise announced the risk to Earth dropped to ~0.001% – leading them to remove 2024 YR4 from their risk list entirely (downgrading it from Torino Scale level 3 down to 0) ESA.INT BLOGS.ESA.INT . In short, Earth is safe from this asteroid, based on all available orbital data.Moon Impact Potential: Interestingly, as the Earth impact risk was refined away, scientists began examining the asteroid’s trajectory relative to the Moon’s orbit. If the asteroid’s miss distance from Earth is on the order of 1 lunar distance, one must consider the Moon’s position: could the Moon be hit instead of Earth? Early in 2025, this scenario had a very low but non-zero possibility. In fact, at one point when the Earth probability dropped below 0.3%, the Moon impact probability was estimated to have increased slightly to about 1% BLOGS.NASA.GOV . This happens because as the asteroid’s possible paths that go through Earth were ruled out, a few remaining uncertainty paths went near where the Moon might be.After the final observations of the 2025 visibility window, NASA stated there remained “a very small chance” of a Moon impact in 2032 – about a 1.7% probability as of the end of February 2025 BLOGS.NASA.GOV . In other words, based on the data so far, there was on the order of a 1 in 60 chance that 2024 YR4 could collide with the Moon on Dec 22, 2032, and a >98% chance it will miss the Moon as well. ESA’s analysis similarly noted that while Earth was out of danger, the Moon stayed within the far end of the asteroid’s uncertainty corridor, keeping a tiny impact chance alive SPACEPOLICYONLINE.COM .To put that in perspective, 1–2% is still very low probability – meaning it is over 98% likely that the asteroid will simply fly past the Moon (and likely at some tens of thousands of kilometers distance or more). And even that 1–2% chance is expected to shrink further. The asteroid is currently unobservable (it’s too faint after 2025), but it will be observed again when it comes closer in mid-2028 BLOGS.NASA.GOV . Those future observations in 2028 (and beyond) will further pin down its orbit. It is highly probable that once new data are in, astronomers will be able to rule out a Moon impact entirely, driving the chance effectively to zero (just as happened with Earth). In fact, ESA noted that this rise-and-fall pattern – uncertainty allowing a small impact chance which then disappears with more data – is a well-understood aspect of orbital predictions ESA.INT ESA.INT .Bottom line: Neither Earth nor the Moon is expected to be hit by 2024 YR4, given current information. The likelihood of a Moon collision is extremely slim (~1% or less) based on the available orbital data BLOGS.NASA.GOV , and it will likely be eliminated with further tracking. Both NASA and ESA have emphasized that there is no significant risk from this asteroid now, after refining its trajectory. NASA’s February 2025 update concluded 2024 YR4 “no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth,” and only a very small lunar chance remained BLOGS.NASA.GOV . ESA similarly reported the asteroid “no longer requires significant attention” and that international warning networks have stood down their alerts BLOGS.ESA.INT . What If 2024 YR4 Did Impact the Moon? Even though an impact on the Moon is very unlikely, it’s interesting to consider hypothetically what would happen if asteroid 2024 YR4 did collide with the Moon in 2032. Here’s an analysis based on the asteroid’s size, velocity, and impact conditions: Impact Energy: A rock ~50 meters across striking the Moon would hit at a very high speed – typical impact velocities for near-Earth asteroids are on the order of 10 to 20 km/s. There’s no atmosphere on the Moon to slow or break up the object, so 2024 YR4 would hit the lunar surface at full speed. The kinetic energy released would be enormous. For a rough estimate, a 50 m asteroid hitting at ~15 km/s releases on the order of few x 10^15 joules of energy, equivalent to several megatons of TNT (several million tons of TNT explosive power). This is comparable to the largest nuclear bombs ever built. For example, the famous Meteor (Barringer) Crater in Arizona was formed by an impactor ~50 m in size releasing about 10 megatons of energy FOSSILERA.COM . Crater Formation: The Moon’s surface would absorb this energy in a violent explosion, excavating a sizeable crater. Based on impact scaling laws and past examples, a rough rule of thumb is that an impact crater on a rocky body is about 10–20 times the diameter of the impactor ASTRONOMY.STACKEXCHANGE.COM . Indeed, the 50 m iron asteroid that made Arizona’s Meteor Crater left a crater ~1.2 km across and ~170 m deep FOSSILERA.COM . If 2024 YR4 (40–90 m across) struck the Moon, we’d expect a crater on the order of 1 kilometer in diameter (perhaps between 0.5 km and 2 km across, depending on the exact size, speed, and impact angle). The lack of atmosphere on the Moon means the ejecta would spray out unimpeded, creating a classic bowl-shaped lunar crater with a blanket of debris around it. The impact would vaporize the asteroid and melt a portion of lunar rock at the impact site. Impact Angle Effects: The angle at which the asteroid hits could affect the shape of the crater (oblique impacts create more elongated craters), but even a fairly shallow impact will still blast out a roughly circular crater. Most likely, unless the angle is extremely shallow, the outcome would be a round crater with perhaps a small central peak or slumped walls if the crater is large enough. Debris and Ejecta: A blast of this size would throw out millions of tons of lunar soil and rock. Some ejecta could be thrown far across the Moon’s surface, and a small fraction might even achieve lunar escape velocity (~2.4 km/s) and go into orbit or head into space. (In fact, lunar meteorites found on Earth are believed to be debris from past large impacts on the Moon – though those usually come from far larger impacts than this.) There would be no atmospheric shockwave (since the Moon has no air), but debris ejecta would rain down around the impact site. Any spacecraft or structures within a few hundred kilometers might be at risk from that spray of rocks. (By 2032, if there is a lunar base or orbiters, they’d get advance warning to take precautions, though again the chance of this impact is extremely low.) Visible Effects: The impact would create an incredibly bright flash of light at the moment of impact – likely visible from Earth with the naked eye if the impact happens on the Moon’s Earth-facing side at night. (NASA has observed much smaller meteoroid impacts on the Moon that produced flashes visible in backyard telescopes, and even one in 2013 that was bright enough to see without a telescope SVS.GSFC.NASA.GOV .) A 50-meter asteroid impact would be orders of magnitude more energetic, so it would likely produce a flash and plume visible even in modest Earth-based telescopes. The new crater would certainly be detectable in lunar orbiter images and probably even by high-end amateur telescopes as a new spot on the Moon’s surface. No Lasting Harm to the Moon: Such an impact would not “destroy” the Moon or alter its orbit in any noticeable way. The Moon is 3,474 km in diameter and very massive; an impact of a few megatons, while geologically significant on a local scale, is trivial to the Moon as a whole. The Moon has absorbed countless impacts of this scale and larger over its history (that’s why it’s covered in craters!). So the primary outcome would be one more crater. There could be a temporary expansion of the Moon’s extremely thin exosphere with dust and vaporized rock, and possibly some charged particles from the impact. But the Moon’s environment would return to normal soon after. Scientific Opportunity: If, against the odds, 2024 YR4 did hit the Moon, it would be a boon for science (despite the unfortunate loss of the asteroid as a flyby target). Instruments could observe the impact to learn about impact physics, and later possibly send a probe to examine the fresh crater to study subsurface lunar material exposed by the hit. Such an event would be the first known large asteroid impact on the Moon in the era of modern observation, offering a unique research opportunity. In summary, an impact of 2024 YR4 on the Moon would blast out a ~1 km crater, scatter debris, and create a bright, energetic explosion visible from Earth – a dramatic but localized event. No widespread effects would extend to Earth (other than the spectacle and scientific data); Earth would not be directly affected since there’s no atmospheric shock or other coupling between the Moon’s surface and Earth. The main consequences would be to the lunar surface itself. Official Assessments by NASA, ESA, and Others Both NASA and ESA (European Space Agency) have closely monitored asteroid 2024 YR4 and released public assessments: NASA Reports: NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office issued a series of updates via its blog in January and February 2025 as new data came in. Initially, NASA noted the asteroid had “more than 1% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032” in early analyses BLOGS.NASA.GOV . This was later updated to 2.3% as more observations were analyzed (as of early Feb 2025) BLOGS.NASA.GOV . However, after additional telescope data and refinements, NASA announced by Feb 24, 2025 that the impact probability for Earth in 2032 had dropped to 0.004%, effectively zero, and that “there still remains a very small chance” (about 1.7%) of impact on the Moon BLOGS.NASA.GOV . NASA emphasized that 2024 YR4 no longer poses a significant hazard to Earth for the next century BLOGS.NASA.GOV , and that they will continue to track it (with telescopes and even the James Webb Space Telescope in 2025) to further improve size and orbit estimates BLOGS.NASA.GOV BLOGS.NASA.GOV . ESA Reports: The European Space Agency’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC) likewise placed 2024 YR4 at the top of its risk list in early 2025, given the initial ~1-3% impact odds SPACEPOLICYONLINE.COM . ESA noted the asteroid briefly set a record for the highest recorded impact probability for an object of its size, surpassing even early estimates for the famous asteroid Apophis BLOGS.ESA.INT . On February 18, 2025, ESA’s risk estimate peaked at 2.8% chance of Earth impact BLOGS.ESA.INT , but just a few days later, new VLT (Very Large Telescope) observations cut that in half, and subsequent data drove the risk to 0.001% by Feb 25 ESA.INT ESA.INT . In an official release on Feb 25, 2025, ESA declared “asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses [a] significant impact risk”, removed it from the risk list (Torino Scale now 0), and stated that the International Asteroid Warning Network had concluded its related alert activities BLOGS.ESA.INT ESA.INT . Notably, ESA’s releases focused on Earth risk; they acknowledged the Moon impact chance as a footnote, essentially agreeing it remained on the order of ~1% but likely would also vanish with further tracking. International Collaboration: The tracking and analysis of 2024 YR4 was a global effort. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) – a coalition of space agencies and observatories – issued alerts and coordinated observations. As mentioned, once the threat level subsided by late February 2025, the IAWN stood down those alerts BLOGS.ESA.INT . This event served as a useful test of global planetary defense systems and communication. NASA noted that 2024 YR4 provided an “invaluable opportunity” to exercise the prediction and notification processes for potential impacts BLOGS.NASA.GOV . Both NASA and ESA have pointed to this case as an example of the system working as intended: initial detection of a risk, mobilization of follow-up observations, and finally ruling out the threat with high confidence well in advance. References: The information above is drawn from official NASA and ESA releases and reputable science news sources. For instance, NASA’s Planetary Defense blog posts in January–February 2025 detail the evolving orbit predictions BLOGS.NASA.GOV BLOGS.NASA.GOV BLOGS.NASA.GOV . ESA’s public announcements (ESA Planetary Defence Office, Feb 2025) likewise document the rising and falling probabilities and final risk assessment ESA.INT BLOGS.ESA.INT . Space news outlets like SpacePolicyOnline also summarized these developments, noting that while Earth is in the clear, “NASA is not ruling out the possibility [2024 YR4] might hit the Moon There’s a 1.7% chance it will strike there.” SPACEPOLICYONLINE.COM SPACEPOLICYONLINE.COM . In Conclusion: Asteroid 2024 YR4 will closely approach the Earth-Moon system in December 2032. Current projections show it will miss Earth, and it is highly unlikely to hit the Moon (with only a remote ~1% chance, likely to be refined to 0). Should the extremely unlikely occur and it impacts the Moon, it would create a substantial crater and flash, but no harm to Earth – an impressive cosmic event yielding scientific insights, rather than a disaster. All major space agencies agree that, as of now, 2032 will see a near-miss, not an impact BLOGS.NASA.GOV BLOGS.NASA.GOV , and they will keep monitoring this asteroid as 2032 approaches, just to be absolutely certain.

No worries: No Lasting Harm to the Moon: Such an impact would not “destroy” the Moon or alter its orbit in any noticeable way. The Moon is 3,474 km in diameter and very massive; an impact of a few megatons, while geologically significant on a local scale, is trivial to the Moon as a whole. The Moon has absorbed countless impacts of this scale and larger over its history (that’s why it’s covered in craters!). So the primary outcome would be one more crater. There could be a temporary expansion of the Moon’s extremely thin exosphere with dust and vaporized rock, and possibly some charged particles from the impact. But the Moon’s environment would return to normal soon after.

I'll look into the trajectory of Asteroid 2024 YR4, particularly its potential impact risk concerning the Moon in 2032. This includes determining the Moon’s position at the relevant time, the asteroid’s path, and the likelihood of an impact. Additionally, I'll assess what would happen if the asteroid were to collide with the Moon, considering factors like relative sizes, impact velocity, and possible lunar effects. I’ll provide an analysis based on available data from space agencies and scientific research. I’ll update you as soon as I have the findings.

When will we know if it will hit the moon? I understand that is less likely since it's much smaller, but if it will pass within the orbit of the moon we should run the numbers! If it hit the moon that could have a larger impact on earth than hitting the earth. It will largely burn up in our atmosphere but hitting the moon could knock the moon off its orbit. Either away or toward the earth would be devastating.

To me progress means reaching for the stars like StarTrek. We need to be burning more Coal and Oil on Mars to increase CO2 on that planet. We could take CO2 from Venus and bring it to Mars... Ultimately if our planet is getting too hot we have ways to fix that too such as building solar panel clouds that could float in our atmosphere and generate energy without letting the heat into our atmosphere... If these ideas sound crazy or wild you're not progressive. We will need humans to colonize the solar system and beyond. We need to find the next inventors who will help humanity reach for the stars. The talk of austerity especially when it comes to family planning is about the most regressive idea I've ever heard... it stinks of make idolizing the past. Let's move forward together.

YES. The computer is a bicycle for your brain. Everyone should know how to make it work for them. If you have to learn math then why not learn how to make a computer think for you. It's more important for someone to learn how to make a computer do work for you than it is to learn how to use a calculator. Besides... with all the extra tech workers being laid off what else are they going to do? #LearnToTeach. My money is where my mouth is: We are homeschooling our kids, and they have already started programming with scratch style programming at ages 5, 7, 9. It is also a good reason for them to learn to read because you cant program if you cant read. My kids have made Roblox games, Minecraft Educational and Microsoft Game Studio. I'm not saying they should be rewriting any kernels, but understanding loops and logic is pretty basic and every kid should learn it. Further more, in the 50's they used to do logic class with math. We somehow lost that. Computer class is a good way to get it back.

Yeah, I feel back that I cant actually delete my comment... I made it without thinking too much. I was thinking this was another article about how we're going to build solar panels into the roads or drive on tires that are not made of rubber... I actually think that layering aggregate like plastic or I've also heard that used rubber tires sideways and filled with gravel works really well too... Anyway... sorry for my ignorant comment... I need to read the article before blabbing my gut responses. :) Lesson learned.

We literally drive on rock we still get pot holes and cracks in the roads. Plastic is not more durable than concrete.