How do you turn bitcoin back into cash or gold without a paper trail?
Certain ATMs don't have KYC, but the better way to anonymously sell your bitcoin is with either localbitcoins https://localbitcoins.com/ or mycelium localtrader https://mycelium.com/lt/help.h... in person. This also makes it easy to quickly transfer bitcoin where you don't have to wait for confirmations - https://opendime.com/
Actually you are mistaken because you assume the speculation is day trading. Many speculators are holding coins for longer than hours, waiting for big changes like the one we have recently experienced. Many are probably trying to time their exit right now, play "safe" and exit at 650 or risk a little more an exit at 750. Many thinking things will eventually stabilize at 500 to 600, like the year spent at 250 to 300, same block reward for miners despite the halving to keep the hardware online.
The context of this discussion involved tx velocity and throughput. Sure, I agree that speculation is one of bitcoins killer apps, but bag holders don't place much tx pressure onchain when they sell a few coins once a year with a single tx to send them to an exchange so I don't know where you are going with this discussion being that you were insinuating Bitcoin needed to have a higher tps than VISA because a few early investors dump some coins once a year.
Disinflationary - You keep on using that word. How about instead of trying to mislead people you just write "deflation"? You can't? The rubes would catch on and not add to the pyramid scheme? The entire thing is a scam baited for geeks and really pisses me off.
I have been using the word "deflation". I have no reason to avoid using this word as it doesn't strike fear in my heart like it apparently does to you. It is a simple fact that bitcoin often behaves deflationary in the economy as the US dollar has lost 99.98 % against bitcoin in the last 6 years due to high demand and the fact that the minting supply is disinflationary. This isn't always the case however as you can see bitcoin behaved inflationary in 2014 due to a relatively high inflation minting rate of ~9%
99.9% of speculation and btc day trading happens offchain within exchanges though.
Doubtful. Leaving bitcoins in an exchange is universally considered high risk and that transferring the coins to your wallet is highly advised.
Although modern exchanges are regulated , insured and more secure I agree with you its typically not wise to leave you coins on an exchange. Regardless , my statement is 100% accurate because one cannot effectively daytrade if they are constantly removing their coins from exchanges. I don't daytrade but know a large part of the community who does and they don't often remove their assets.
You mean like Ethereum? Why not just jump ship from Bitcoin?
Ethereum has many problems besides its goals of switching to an untested and insecure proof of stake algo. It was largely premined , it is insecure , it won't scale, the halting problem and recursion will haunt it, its functionality can be replicated by bitcoin more securely, it lacks a network effect, most of the largest stakeholders can be targeted, they are planning on reversing the history and blacklisting thus removing immutability, ect..
Which is exactly what governments do with a fiat currency - adjust the availability of the currency to stabilize and moderate its value, to maintain a slight inflation rate. And we've come full circle. The folks who rejected fiat currencies and advocated bitcoin have learned the lesson governments learned with gold eighty years ago, and are advocating changes to make it behave more like a fiat currency.
Bitcoins volatility is a fair criticism of it as a currency. Just keep in mind -
1) Bitcoin is becoming less volatile with each passing year
2) Bitcoin isn't just a currency, so even in the offchance it fails as a currency it can still be very valueable as a protocol, or asset class, or store of value , or just for the blackmarket , or.for smart contracts and an immutable ledger , or . ect..
3) Bitcoin is already more stable than certain fiat currencies, remember bitcoin only needs to be valuable to certain people , not all , for it to succeed
Deflation increases the wealth of the people holding the currency. In Bitcoin's case, an intentionally disinflationary currency was coupled to a ponzi scheme - the hope was that demand rises high enough for early adopters to make bank (which it did).
Bitcoin has always been expressly designed to favor the people who got bitcoins early. And it was just obvious enough to recruit people who thought themselves early.
Asking people to adopt it worldwide is like Parker Bros saying "We're gonna make Monopoly Money into a valid international currency. Yes, we are the only ones who have Monopoly Money in meaningful quantities. No, we won't be printing hardly any more, we want to protect our investment. It's actually nearly impossible to print it, we engineered it that way. If you want some, you have to give me something in return. But look how pretty it is!"
Don't worry, we do not need you to buy any bitcoin. I actually encourage you to avoid it until you understand it. There are enough of us that will continue to burn our fiat for more fungible currency to keep bitcoin growing. I will continue buying bitcoin even if I have to at 500k+ a bitcoin due to its utility alone. You don't really understand bitcoins utility if you believe if is merely dependent upon speculation, but perhaps in 4 to 8 years as bitcoin continues to grow in value you may scratch your head and revisit its value proposition (hint - paying a premium for fungibility for regulatory arbitrage). I encourage you to short bitcoin or just avoid it altogether until you understand why certain people depend upon bitcoin even to survive and that is what primarily gives it value.
"Continue to appreciate"
Sweetheart, when a currency appreciates, that's deflation. You can say "disinflationary" all you want.
Yes , of course bitcoin is often acting deflationary(which is great) , but sometimes behaves inflationary based upon supply and demand. I am clearly making a distinction between minting (disinflationary) and how bitcoin behaves in the economy (sometimes inflationary and sometimes deflationary). There have been long periods of inflation as well. Take a look at 2014.
In the past the value of bitcoin was inherently tied to the production costs of bitcoin where there is a very narrow margin of profit above the minting costs from production.
What makes you think this has changed? The price has roughly doubled with a reward halving upcoming.
Today the cost of bitcoin production dropped from ~1.6 million per day to around 820k a day USD and the price remained the same.
No, bitcoin could switch from a proof of work system to a proof of ownership system. The problem with the later is the initial distribution of coins, but that is a problem for a new coin not an established coin that is already widely distributed.
There are many more problems with proof of stake than you imply. Take a look at the security concerns the Ethereum community has with a bad actor controlling a significant stake and their upcoming wishes to switch to proof of stake as an example.
Visa is not supporting a speculative investment scheme. Bitcoin is more analogous to high frequency wall street trading, not actual consumer transactions. Bitcoin is *currently* primarily a speculative investment scheme.
99.9% of speculation and btc day trading happens offchain within exchanges though.
Even among people who can afford hardware, there is a lot of effective consolidation because of 'pools'. These aren't irrational behavior: if you have a small amount of hashing capacity going it alone might pay off handsomely but will probably pay nothing, while pooling more or less guarantees a return proportional to your hashing capacity; but also leaves you largely at the mercy of the infrastructure.
While there are some valid concerns over pool mining centralization this is widely overblown concern due to 2 reasons. First is the fact that p2pool is only around 1% more inefficient than mining at the largest pool and removes these risks you suggest and there are many active members mining there and growing. Secondly it is trivial to point your hash rate at another pool and most miners automate this for uptime and other concerns.
"Bitcoin is disinflationary"
The rapidly and falsely-rising 'value' of bitcoin tells me and anyone else that ever paid attention to economics that you're dead wrong.
Bitcoin is disinflationary from a minting or production perspective until the year 2140 and than inflation will slow to 0. It can behave either inflationary or deflationary within an economy as a matter of supply and demand. Right now there is ~2.34 million in inflation a day hitting the markets and within a few hour the inflation hitting the markets will be half that. If you need some evidence that bitcoin can act inflationary within the economy than just look at its capitulation during 2014 where inflation outpaced demand.
Of course there's no reason for it, it's just our policy.