chongo's Journal: 2003-EG16 asteroid update for 2003-03-11 20:30 UTC

The 2003-EG16 asteroid has taken the top position in the current impact risks .

Because we only have 36 New observations over 2 days, the current orbit model should be considered highly speculative.

Based on the new observations, we calculate the following information for 2003-EG16:

• Diameter: 544m
• Mass: 2.2e11 kg
• Impact speed (only IF it hits): 23.53 km/s
• Potential impact energy (only IF it hits): 14,000 Megatons
• Torino impact hazard scale : 0
• cumulative Palermo Scale : -2.42
• close Earth approach paths in next 100 yrs: 96
• Earth impact odds in the next 100 yrs: 1 in 769,000

Based on the estimated size and mass: IF 2003-EG16 were to hit the Earth on land, its impact would result in sub-continent scale devastation. IF 2003-EG16 were to hit the Earth in the ocean, it would create a tsunami the size and speed of which have not been seen in recorded history. Such a tsunami would would inflict total devastation along adjoining coastlines and in some cases spread destruction far inland.

The impact speed, IF 2003-EG16 hits the earth remains on the higher end of the typical asteroid approach speed.

The odds of 2003-EG16 impacting Earth means that there is a 99.99987% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth. You should still plan to pay your taxes, go to work/look for work, and continue to wait for new South Park episodes. :-)

What about 2003EE16?

[Shanes]

I just noticed that NEODyS has listed the asteroid 2003 EE16 [unipi.it] with several virtual impactors, 3 of them with a Torino scale rating of 1.

Are there too few observations for you to list and/or model it or doesn't EE16 have any impact solutions in your model?

Thanks.

Re:What about 2003EE16?

[chongo]

New data for 2003-EE16 2003-EG16 have come in. We are working on our orbit models now ...

2003-EE16

[chongo]

The 2003-EE16 [unipi.it] asteroid, at of the time of this reply (2003-03-12 08:35 UTC), has observations that span only ~27 hours. That is too short of a time for anything but somewhat speculative orbit model.

The speculative model for 2003-EE16 shows approaches in the next 100 years with Earth (in both ascending and descending nodes - two points along Earth's orbit) as well as Venus and perhaps Mars. The object is very close to Earth's orbit plane (within 2/3 of a degree).

It this holds up, it will be a mess to try and build an accurate orbit model. Frankly we are hoping that observations over the next day or two might refine the model from speculative to preliminary and reduce the model complexity.

NOTE to Universe:

Recently that someone as been slinging several 1/2 km boulders near Earth's orbit plane that have a Venus-Earth-Mars-Earth-Venus interaction cycle.

2003-EE16 is the 4th one with dual Earth node interaction that we have seen this year. If you are going to toss around such rocks, we would appreciate it if you would have them turn up one at a time ... preferably with a brief rest between each one. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation. :-) :-) :-)

A short delay in modeling won't hurt. At least at first glance 2003-EE16's next approach to the Earth won't be until 2017-06-21 ... so waiting 2 or 3 days before more data (hopefully) is not a problem. If more data comes in and if both models remain interesting, then we will be dividing our time between 2003-EG16 and 2003-EE16 work. Fun!

Re:2003-EE16

[chongo]

It has been more than 4 days since the last observation of 2003-EE16.