China is enemy #1 (Score 5, Interesting)

Linux is a threat to the Microsoft monopoly. The greatest threat comes from national adoption of Linux by countries outside the United States. There a number of reasons for national governments to announce Linux strategies, including negotiating with Microsoft for a sizeable price break on license costs. Previous Slashdot stories cover adoption announcements by China, Germany, South Africa, Mexico, and Korea. The government most likely to back Linux as a national priority is China. China is the greatest threat to a Microsoft monopoly; it is in China's self-interest to make Linux a national standard because of the country's unique governmental and social situtation:

1. China is a communist country. The government controls the majority of the chineese economy and can mandate standards and shared cost allocation. China may ban Microsoft products from all state run businesses and government functions, although I doubt they would interfere with sanctioned, entreprenual computing systems.
2. China has unreliable relations with the United States. China needs control over its critical infrastructure, including its computing systems. A sudden change in relationships with the United States, e.g., an invasion of R.O.C. (Taiwan), could cut of imports, upgrades, and technical support from Microsoft. It is as prudent to mandate self-determination of operating systems as of electrical power.
3. China can take a long term view. China is the Middle Kingdom, with thousands of years of continous civilization. China, unlike the United States, could decide to embark on a path and resist pressure until it pays off.
4. China is large, really large. The factbook states China is 1,200,000,000 (1.2B) people with a GDP of over $5,000,000,000,000.00 ($5T). China is the only country that could easily decide to commit a million people to full time Linux development and support.

The nighmare senario for Micosoft is that China makes the Linux operating system and open source applications a national security priority. Think of the effects of this quadrant of the planning grid:

1. Massive Government Initiatives. China commits a million software engineers to Linux to start, with plans for an addition five million writers of open source over the next few years. Every day, all day, houndreds of thousands of engineers do nothing but address sniggley little issues, others flesh out the documentation, write device drivers, and create rock solid test cases for existing modules. New initiatives for open source software for offices, inventory and supply management, business process management, and educational/training software create credible free software.

   China leverages support for open source to build tighter relationships with countries besides the U.S. Open source authors are invited guests at massive conferences in Beijing. X-windows is replaced in two years. ChinaLinux preconfigured desktops surpass Microsoft in terms of reliability, ease of support, and scalability. Attempts to foster opposition in China due to massive revenuse from 100,000 person export-only support center.

2. Minimum Market Share.Microsoft attempts to use monopoly power to force Windows only desktops and networks. Unfortunately, the market share of ChinaLinux has an absolute floor of 15%, the usage of computers by China. Some hardware and software suppliers break alliances with Microsoft rather than abondon significant customer loyalty. ChinaLinux is copied and recertified by American companies to avoid import restrictions.
3. Cultural Imperative. Training and certification in ChinaLinux and other applications becomes point of cultural pride as rekindling thousands of years of governmental examinations. Chineese citizens see themselves as the center of the world, from where all new technology flows.

A good future.

Cheers,

Chasm