Yup, which is exactly what would happen if someone tampered with the stored lease on a TPM system. The only difference is it might be stored in encrypted form on the hard drive, but that wouldn't make it any harder for an attacker to corrupt the stored lease.
No. TPM provides read/write access control attributes on its NVM spaces such that SW apps runs in OS can NOT modify the data stored. However, in hard drive, there is no such control. But I agree TPM is not the only soloution and there can be other methods with the support of BIOS.