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Comment Re: Stop already with tying every disaster to GW (Score 3, Insightful) 436

Ok, if I agree not every disaster is a direct result of Athtoprogenic Global Warming (AGW), can you agree that there are a series of trends that point towards increased extreme meteorological events. And that those events are most simply explain by the increase in CO2? For example, take a look at the number of record highs versus the number of record lows. Or alternately, take a look at the trend of pH in the oceans. You can also look at other events such as the northward movememt of the centers of Bermuda and Pacific High pressures. Sure, it's *possible* that each of these examples (and dozens of others that are beyond the scope of this post), but the hypotheses that have best withstood testing remain the ones that include AGW and various GHG. If you think they are wrong, I'm sure there are plenty of corporations that would pay really really good money for a hypothesis that works to explain the events without changes im GHG as a factor.

Comment Re: Breadth & Accuracy 120 years ago (Score 4, Insightful) 436

You really don't know what you're talking about. Temperature and pressure (and magnetic field strength and orientation) have both been accurately measured for at least 150+years (it's longer, but for purposes of your post, 150 years works). Just because they didn't have the Internet doesn't mean they were clueless savages. Heck you can also get a gauge of global temperatures using a variety of proxies, Tree rings, O16/O18 ratios, heck Dr. Kim Cobb has been doing some fascinating work using coral growth to reconstruct temperature history. All of these can be correlated together to create a pretty comprehensive Temperature history. If you still have doubts, enroll in a paleoclimatology and paleooceanography class, learn the techniques and concepts involved in temperature reconstruction. It's some really cool stuff.

Comment Re: Trump is already a uniter (Score 1) 637

And if you parents didn't bother to keep up with the documents? Or say, I dunno, fire, robbery, natural disaster. Not everyone can afford to have multiple back ups of stuff, or have access to safety deposit boxes. For most people getting the stuff is easy, but the Constitution doesn't say that voting is a right for people that get stuff easily. And no matter what you might *want* the Constitution to reflect your views, what you think the constitution *ought* to say doesn't change what the constitution says. (and how the courts have interpreted it).

Comment The EC is too far out of balance (Score 1) 637

When the house was limited to 435 members, the number of people per representative began to grow. Now you have 435 divided among 320 million people, which leads to a heavier slant towards the smaller states. For example the 5 states of Mt, ND, SD, ID, and WY have 16 EV for around 3.5 million people. Meanwhile CT, also around 3.5 million people has 7 EVs. So there is an imbalance of around 2.29:1. My solution would be to keep the EC, but peg the number of EVs to 2 + statepop/100k. While that means we have a lot more EVs, it also means there is a much better balance between states. In the above example. The EV would become 45 EV for MT, SD, ND, ID, And WY, versus 37 for CT. Which would have an imbalance of 1.29:1. The small states are still favored as per the idea of the Constitution, but the level is now reduced back to the original intent.

Comment Re:This is the year of the extreme climate claims (Score 1) 412

You aren't accounting for CO2 absorption by the oceans. Partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere will increase the CO2 concentration in the ocean (Henry's Law). IIRC, back of the envelope calculations shows about 40% of all CO2 output has been absorbed by the Oceans (assume an average mixing layer of 60 meters, and 70% of the surface area of the earth, also assume the atmosphere is well mixed for our estimate) you can hold ocean temperature constant to make life simpler, or you can increase the temp by a small amount to better refine the estimate. As for calculating the amount of CO2 released, we have pretty good estimates of Carbor released. Take that mass, convert to moles of CO2. Get the total mass of the atmosphere, the scale height is around 8 kilometers (if you want to determine the scale height yourself, be my guest) . Then use the average molecular mass of the atmosphere which is around 28.9 (dry atmosphere, accounting for water vapor is a hassle and for back of the envelope calculations, you can add it in if you want) the density of air is 1.3 kg/m^3) We now have the volume of the atmosphere and the densite. So we can calculate the mass of the atmosphere to compare against the mass of CO2 produced to get an estimate of the increase in CO2 for that time frame. It's not difficult to do and get a reasonable approximation. You'll find that the estimated increase in CO2 is greater than the measured increase, because of ocean absorption. And then that CO2 increase drives other reactions that end up lowering the pH of the oceans, which is overall bad for creatures that make shells. But that's a whole 'nother topic.

Comment Re:Only $15,000???? (Score 4, Insightful) 237

No, the $15K is to justify dropping the case by rending the whole situation moot and save the FBI from having a court decision against them. A court decision against them would resonate for years, so you drop the case, avoid that precedent. Then pick a different case against a company who doesn't have great lawyers. Win that case, and there you go, precedent that favors you.

Comment Re: Questioning isn't "denying"; it's science! (Score 4, Insightful) 504

Seriously? Do you even know why CO2 is a GHG? And if you say it's not, then please explain to me how CO2 doesn't absorb in regions of the IR spectrum that are otherwise transparent. Do you know how ENSO works, and why wind stress forcing from ENSO can help sequester heat into the intermediate and Deep waters of the western Pacific during normal, and with greater intensity during LA Nina years? Do you understand how that slowing of the walker circulation can reverse that downwelling and pull all that sequestered heat back to the surface where it is then available for the lower troposphere. Look, there are a number of climate skeptics in the Earth and Atmospheric sciences of various institutions, but even the out skeptical accept that *something* is happening. Hell I even managed to get Dr Judith Curry to agree with me in 2014, that the next few years would tell the story. If temps remained relatively level, then we were missing something. But if temps resumed their March upward, then even she said that would give strong evidence that the current models were more right than wrong. You want to challenge the science, go for it. You want to derive your own models and see what happens, go for it! Otherwise you're just flapping your gums and wasting time while the adults are trying to figure out what the hell is going on and what we can do to further improve the models and better understand how bad we are fucking the planet up, and maybe, convince enough people that, while mankind won't die off if the temps go up 5 degrees C (and just for you, that's 9 degrees Fahrenheit), you'll see some massive displacement of atmospheric patterns, wildlife, human population displacement, crop disruptions as regions of best growth of certain crops shift dramatically. So yeah, I doubt you'll listen, but maybe other people who read the thread will take it on themselves to look deeper, learn more, and decide based on accurate information. Things are grim enough I don't need to bias a damn thing to make my case.

Comment Re:Rising sea levels (Score 4, Informative) 62

Of note, the use of GPS for surveying sea surface height has proposed or experimented with for a number of years (Cardellach, Estel; Martin-Neira, Manuel., April 2010). It might be because they've moved beyond 'proof of concept', but I think to say they discovered it is a bit strong. I've even found papers detailing the experimental use of GPS satellites to determine sea surface heights as far back as 2001 (Martin-Neira, M; Caparrini, M; Font-Rossello, J; Lannelongue, S; Vallmitjana, C S, 2001). The bggest change might be a reduction of errors, going from (30cm errors in 2000 to 5 - 15cm in 2009. If they've managed to further reduce the size of the errors then they're onto something really big. If they've just found a more efficient method of measuring sea surface heights in the open ocean, well that's pretty cool, but I'm not sure it's quite a game breaker.

As far as sea surface rise being a hoax, that's a silly statement, after all the empirical evidence is pretty strong, We have long term gauges that have been operating for centuries in a number of areas, and excepting for regions of crustal rebound, raw sea level rise is consistent with expectations if additional heat was being pumped into and inceasing the depth of the thermocline..

Comment Re: odd remark (Score 1) 520

The volume of water coming from continental ice caps Greenland, Antarctica), will increase the volume of the ocean in a 1:1 ratio. We're not talking about melting sea ice. It would be like taking an ice cube and setting on top of a funnel over a glass of water. The ice melts and flows into the glass. Raising the level of water. Incidentally, it also cools the water, but because the volume change of water is a very small fraction compared to the volume change from the melting ice. For comparison, the average ocean depth is about 3000 meters, if the entire Greenland ice cap suddenly melted and flowed into the ocean, it would raise the ocean by ~2 meters or so. So you're looking at a 0.015

Comment Re: Raw data? Methods? (Score 5, Informative) 393

Here, let me get you started... A nice climate archive to start If you want to do some validation checking you can go through all the individual stations and check the data. One place is: Another if you don't trust NOAA and want the absolute rawest data: Some of your questions on why certain corrections were made are explained here: And I find it incredibly sad that you think very little science has been done. That couldn't be further from the truth. Take the time to read some papers and do some of your own independent research.

Comment Re: So? (Score 1) 393

Well El Nino is actually a change in the Walker circulation brought on by a relaxation (or in extreme cases a reversal) of the trade winds over the equatorial Pacific region. This let's the water that had been piling up in the west pacific begin shifting back to the east. Which shifts the convection from the heated water to the east as well. You also have the upwelling along the west coast of south America also slow or cease. From there the changes in SSTs and convection will shift the various weather patterns. It's something of a cascading effect, which shows up most in the winter time air for the US. El Nino (and LA Nina) are more than weather, at least in a classic sense that it takes a lot of work to take out the shorter term variabilities to reveal the long term pattern. And when you do, you're left with a 6 to 9 month El Nino phase and 2 to 6 for the neutral and LA Nina phase. Now one of the next questions trying to be ironed out, what effect will the change in climate have on the walker circulation and the ENSO system.

Comment Re:NASA ignoring satellite measurements... (Score 1) 369

Surely you must realize that satellites do not measure temperature directly. Instead they measure various wavelengths of light, and then use a weighting system to interpret the data Of note, most of the spectral readings are of the lower troposphere and *not* the surface. Additionally, there is a major issue of contamination from cloud cover when trying to use satellite data. That you put forth the idea that there are no revision or interpolation or adjustments shows an appalling lack of understanding of exactly how satellite meteorology works.

Comment Good Detail Included In Summary (Score 1) 107

Notably, s2n does not provide all the additional cryptographic functions that OpenSSL provides in libcrypto, it only provides the SSL/TLS functions. Further more, it implements a relatively small subset of SSL/TLS features compared to OpenSSL.

This is the kind of really important detail that is often left out of summaries and winds up making my eye twitch. Thanks OP and/or editors for rising above the common dross.

Comment Re:Big Data != toolset (Score 1) 100

Both Pointy Headed Bosses and Slashdot loooove talking about tools. As the posts generally show, both PHBs and Slashdoters have no clue about what Big Data is used for. It's all about the buzzwords and technology, not about use and utility. There are no references to any algorithms.

Heh. I've been doing big data since 2000. Fifteen years experience in a field that's five years old, I like to say. And let me say this: You nailed it. Your whole post, not just the part I quoted. I've used the tools, from Colt to R, and there is no substitute for the ability to analyze and match a business model, data system, algorithms, implementation, and business controls.

On the upside, give me (or, I'm guessing, you) a month or two to develop a big data strategy, and we'll generate large, measurable, improvement in the company's desired performance metric -- using whatever toolset the company is fawning over at the moment. It may not be what sells the PHBs, but it feeds the bulldog.

It is a shame, though, to see so many charlatans diverting so much revenue into ill-conceived projects. Alas.

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