$3 bil value? That's a swing in Apple's quarterly profits, not an industry's value.

This one is a question of politics and economics. Law of the Sea follows the flag on the ship, flag on the ship goes to the least regulated country. There are cleaner alternatives to bunker fuel, and California mandates use of cleaner ship fuels in California territorial waters. The US could dictate that ships use cleaner fuels in our territorial waters, but outside of that, these ships will continue to use whatever their flag country lets them use.

Sulfur dioxide, however, REVERSES greenhouse effects. If you're afraid of global warming, you should like sulfur emissions.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4516989

If I were you, I'd start coming up with lists of questions that only she would know the answers to. Ask her relatives and friends to come up with questions, some silly, some serious. The more specific the questions, the more specific the answers - more general questions to get her to tell long winded stories that will capture her essence. Ask what you'll want to know ten years from now. Have your kids ask questions. Who knows, some of the answers might come in handy during junior high and high school when social problems are so vexing for kids :)

Probably 95% of the records are for compliance and things legal wants saved for CYA purposes. This is more a function of the legal environment, where everyone wants to sue every business that looks at them funny, and how courts expect tons of documents on everything you've ever done. It'd be an interesting analysis to see what the costs of excess records retention are compared to the legal losses, and more importantly, the losses consumers incur because they can't afford to fight well documented machines or what consumers lose because companies are under-documented.

Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself (I am large, I contain multitudes.)

Identifying things that WERE bubbles is easy enough, depending on what you define a bubble to be. Inside a bubble, the intrinsic defining feature of a bubble is that it is NOT observable, or else everyone would make a fortune off those not observing it by predicting it and drive the price down to prevent it from ever actually being a "bubble". If you are capable of observing a bubble, then by definition you are NOT capable of stopping it.

You're right that timing is an often ignored part of predicting - making a bet costs money, and the juice is always running on speculative bets, especially contrarian ones (here's why). The market can always stay "irrational" longer than you can stay solvent.

Grantham's methodology is based on the historical likelihood of a price movement, which is the same methodology that gave subprime mortgage debt AAA credit rating. It's very reliable for a tight range where asset returns approximate well defined statistical distributions. However the problem with rare, extreme events is that they are easy to observe after the fact, but they are rare and by the time you can tell what is going on, they have an extreme effect on your balance sheet.

His "3 sigma" events are inherently things unlikely to occur, but most importantly its based off three things that change daily, exempli gratis: prices, equity, and the average P/E ratio. Companies with P/E ratios that have been more than 3 times the market P/E ratio include those failures like Microsoft, Google, Apple... Any company with rare growth potential should have an "excessive" P/E ratio. Tech stocks as a sector, for example, have high P/E ratios - but they have not "popped" in the long term (.com bubble being a blip in this longer term trend), they have actually increased the long term P/E ratio of the entire market because they have BECOME the market by crowding out slower growing industries. The price of creativity, innovation and technology is risk.

"there were smart economists saying..."

Here's a smart economist saying an economist's saying: 12 out of the last 5 market crashes have been predicted. Half the people in the market (also known as "sellers") think the market is going down, and half the people (also known as "buyers") think the market is going up. Both have monetary incentives to proclaim the forthcoming terror/utopia and every day the economic and business news is full of them. They aren't listened to for a reason.

50% is also known as a completely meaningless prediction. Basically, it says the price could go up or down.

Bubbles are theoretically impossible to predict. If there existed any convincing predictable evidence that an asset price was a bubble, then everyone would sell the asset by the point it crosses that threshold, meaning the price would have gone down, contradicting the predicate that it was a bubble.

"Bubbles" are nothing more than post-hoc descriptions of prices that went up and came down, just like "bargains" are the description of prices that went down before going back up. Prices are very predictable - they go up and down.

Intel probably doesn't think AMD is a viable competitor anymore. AMD's net assets, prior to this deal, were in the neighborhood of negative $1.25 billion (assuming it can't get rid of its minority interests *cough GlobalFoundries cough*, and you believe its intellectual property is only worth $168 mil). So AMD is really getting a much better financial position from this deal, after you include the spinoff, and new technology. Intel is getting quite a bit out of the technology sharing agreement too: namely, their technology that they have experience with will continue to dominate the market.

If AMD were to die, their team might get snatched up by a player with deeper pockets and complementary engineering team, like an IBM, and things could get ugly for Intel. More importantly, the realpolitik at this level is important. Regulators around the world would use it as an excuse to attack a major American company as a monopoly, in order to try to boost their national champions. Every country wants a piece of the semiconductor industry and will use any means to get it. It may not be a coincidence that GlobalFoundries decides to build a plant in New York, and the NY AG comes in threatening big action to force this settlement... and if Cuomo couldn't get the case to stick, Eric Holder lived from birth to JD in NY.

60*37 20*9*60
Primetime is still more valuable. Fewer commercials means more expensive commercials - that has been long established.