Comment Re:Demand Chain Crash (Score 1) 18
There's quite a bit of hyperbole and assumption in what you're saying - even from enthusiasts getting Qwen model running locally "90%" of frontier is a bold statement given the capabilities of actual frontier models. I don't think you're pricing in demand - would demand decrease from cheaper models or increase? You seem to imply that we're at a saturation point from demand, but I feel this couldn't be further from the truth. There's a lot of integration points and a lot of huge benefits a 100x model could produce in terms of software use cases - we aren't really seeing peak usage or anywhere near peak usage there. The tools are too expensive right now for everyone to maximize use. If the price crashes I think you just see more usage taking up the slack.
I'm right there with you though that there are going to be winners and losers, but certainly not on the timescale you're predicting and certainly not with some of the big HW players.