Comment Re:Just say no to saying no (Score 1) 311
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" -- Irving Fischer, 1929
I've never heard this comment before, but if the date is accurate, I'm surprised you place it with the others. In fact, that might be the absolute best forecast of all time.
Obviously, stock prices and all indices are much higher today than they were in 1929. However, as you probably know, 1929 was the start of a massive, four-year decline in equity prices that played a huge part in creating "The Great Depression." Clearly, every investor who owned stocks in 1929 wished he/she had heeded Mr. Fischer's advice.
You may have an issue with the word "permanently," which is why you'd consider the statement to be ridiculous. However, after the crash of 1929, the Dow Jones IA did not reach it's pre-crash level again until 1954 -- 25 years later! In investing terms, 25 years is about as close as you'll ever get to "permanent" or "forever." Plenty of people died in those 25 years, so for all of them, Mr. Fischer's accuracy was stunning.
The bottom line is Mr. Fischer was making a sell recommendation, and he was absolutely, 100% on the money.
I've never heard this comment before, but if the date is accurate, I'm surprised you place it with the others. In fact, that might be the absolute best forecast of all time.
Obviously, stock prices and all indices are much higher today than they were in 1929. However, as you probably know, 1929 was the start of a massive, four-year decline in equity prices that played a huge part in creating "The Great Depression." Clearly, every investor who owned stocks in 1929 wished he/she had heeded Mr. Fischer's advice.
You may have an issue with the word "permanently," which is why you'd consider the statement to be ridiculous. However, after the crash of 1929, the Dow Jones IA did not reach it's pre-crash level again until 1954 -- 25 years later! In investing terms, 25 years is about as close as you'll ever get to "permanent" or "forever." Plenty of people died in those 25 years, so for all of them, Mr. Fischer's accuracy was stunning.
The bottom line is Mr. Fischer was making a sell recommendation, and he was absolutely, 100% on the money.
